CPO Futures Trades In Year 2021

681 points accumulated theoretical gross profit in year 2020 was basically helped by a single trade in January 2020 that being carried forward from year 2019 and readers traders can actually refer back the previous post to find out the full details. Without the first profit trade in January 2019, it would be a "loss" year for 2020!

681 x 25 = RM17,025 is the theoretical profit for the year 2020 based on per contract size basis.

CPO Futures trades in this year 2021 will be following the same method. Readers traders can take advantage on the early trade signal that will be updated day by day "in advance" before the FCPO market is opened at 1030am everyday in Bursa Malaysia Derivatives unless there is any unforeseen circumstances.

• Long 3481 (23/12/2020) is holding on until a new trade is initiated that will be shown in the following SAR trade signals as what I had done in the previous post.

1. Sell 3646 +165 (14/1/2021) if 3646 is traded on 14/1/2021.
2. Buy 3464 +182 (29/1) if 3464 is traded on 29/1.( No more "or else" again like previous post, understand?)
3. Sell 3360 -104 (3/2). if 3360 is traded on 4/2.
4. Buy 3443 -83 (9/2). if 3443 is traded on 9/2.
5. Sell 3829 +386 (18/3). if 3829 is traded on 18/3
6. Buy 3895 -66 (23/3). if 3895 is traded on 23/3
7. Sell 3826 -69 (25/3) if 3826 is traded on 25/3
8. Buy 3818 +8 (6/4). if 3818 is traded on 6/4.
9. Sell 3687 -131 (12/4). if 3687 is traded on 12/4.
10. Buy 3791 -104 (15/4). if 3791 is traded on 15/4.
11. Sell 3736 -55 (16/4). if 3736 is traded on 16/4.
12. Buy 3789 -53 (20/4). if 3789 is traded on 20/4.
13. Sell 4129 +340 (20/5). if 4129 is traded on 20/5.
14. Buy 4150 -21 (3/6). if 4150 is traded on 3/6.
15. Sell 4022 -128 (8/6). if 4022 is traded on 8/6.
16. Buy 3629 +393 (30/6). if 3629 is traded on 30/6.
17. Sell 4165 +536 (2/8) if 4165 is traded on 2/8 (otherwise, hold on 3629). 
18. Buy 4244 -79 (4/8) if 4244 is traded on 4/8 (or else, hold on 4165)
19. Sell 4309 +65 (18/8) if 4309 is traded on 18/8, or else, hold on 4244.
20. Buy 4353 -44 (25/8) if 4353 is traded on 25/8, or else, hold on 4309.
21. Sell 4284 -69 (30/8). if 4284 is traded on 30/8, or else, hold on 4353.
22. Buy 4364 -80 (3/9) if 4364 is traded on 3/9, or else, hold on 4284.
23. Sell 4287 -77 (10/9) if 4287 is traded on 10/9, or else, hold 4364.
24. Buy 4394 -107 (15/9) if 4394 is traded on 15/9, or else, hold on 4287
25. Sell 4326 -68 (17/9) if 4326 is traded on 17/9, or else, hold on 4394 
26. Buy 4392 -66 (23/9) if 4392 is traded on 23/9, or else, hold on 4326.
27. Sell 4326 -66 (28/9) if 4326 is traded on 28/9, or else, hold on 4392
28. Buy 4486 -160 (29/9) if 4486 is traded on 30/9, or else, hold on 4326
29. Sell 4851 +365 (8/11) if 4851 is traded on 8/11, or else, hold on 4486 (actual 4545).
30. Buy 4938 -87 (10/11) if 4938 is traded on 10/11; or else, hold on 4851 (actual 4790)
31. Sell 4868 -70 (16/11) if 4868 is traded on 16/11; or else, ((Actual - hold on 4938)).
32. Buy 4932 -64 (18/11) (real 4939) if 4932 is traded on 18/11; or else, hold on 4868
33. Sell 4867 -65 (23/11) if 4867 is traded on 23/11; or else, hold on 4932
34. Buy 4957 -90 (25/11) if 4957 is traded on 25/11; or else, hold on 4867.
35. Sell 4887 -70 (26/11) if 4887 is traded on 26/11; or else, hold on 4957.
36. Buy 4893 -6 (7/12) if 4893 is traded on 7/12; or else, hold on 4887.
37. Sell 4749 -144 (9/12) if 4749 is traded on 9/12; or else, hold on 4893.
38. Buy 4635 +114 (24/12) if 4654 is traded on 23/12; or else, >> SAR no.37!
39. Sell if 4568 is traded on 31/12; or else, >> SAR no.38

NOTES:

• 5/1: Same like previous post, This is a Daily Technical Trend Trading Indicator, expecting stop and reverse (SAR) trades < 40 in total for the year 2021. We saw total 38 SAR trade signals in year 2020.
• 7/1:Surveys said end stock December multiple years low. So, wait for MPOB next Monday.
• 14/1: First trade of the year, selling 3646 with profit 165 pts per contract size basis. CPO hit low 3490 and was luckily stopped by "velocity logic" band. This rule helped avoiding "very" bad filled prices in volatile market in my view for stop loss orders. Just search "velocity logic BMD" and you can learn how it works.
• 18/1: change of month is giving extra 100 points of artificial profit due to the 101 points of spread discount! March was 3423 and April was 3322 on Friday's settlement prices. 
• January: +165+182=+347. Started with a theoretical accumulated profit of 347 ticks!
• 3/2: We have opening price 3315 way below 3360 SAR. But will use 3360 for consistency updates like notes on 18/1. All the P&L is basically a theoretical figure for systematical updates year after year. 
• 4/2: today the opening is 3359, just nicely 1 tick below 3360 SAR trade signal !
• 9/2: open 3486, higher than 3443 SAR, but, we continue using 3443 as mentioned earlier on 3/2. February 2 SARs basically wipe out all the profit of January!
• 15/2: Spread 180 to 200+ range to rollover is huge and artificially affecting the P&L lower by 180+ points. However, as mentioned previously, consistency is utmost important. FCPO MAY is 180+ much lower than FCPO APRIL will still be recorded in the above SAR trade signals. It is still difficult to trigger SAR tomorrow which far below 3400 for FCPO MAY. We will still use Long 3443 on 9/2 FCPO APRIL as the theoretical price until the next SAR trading signal is triggered.
• February: -104-83= -187. 
• 1/3: February is a bad month without a good trade even though actual real trade is profitable because of rollover and profit trade carry forward to March. However, we still have to record the theoretical trades for consistency.
• 13/3: It is almost certain that no SAR for 1st 2 weeks in March, holding on 3443 since 9/2.
• 15/3: Spread MAY JUNE around 115+ to rollover at low end still artificially make the P&L lower by 115+ points. But, as said on 15/2, consistency is the important, we shall calculate the lower profit still for the long 3443 since 9/2 once we get the new SAR in this month or next month.
• 18/3: We have a SAR today after holding on since 9/2. Looking at 2 rollovers on 15/2 and 15/3, the actual realized profit will be about 386+115+180= 681 points. But, we will only record 386 points only for consistency.
• 19/3: CPO Futures price hit low 3667. SAR 3829 yesterday. High volatility continue!
• 23/3: open 3965 gap up without getting SAR 3895. But, will continue follow 3895 for consistency updates.  
• 24/3: 3895 SAR can be seen today after seeing low 3879 this morning. 
• 25/3: SAR 3826 is triggered. A losing trade with much bigger loss in reality which supposed to be against the actual SAR 3965 (instead of 3895 theoretical SAR). But, again, consistency records more important and that is why we will continue with theoretical SARs. 
• 26/3: Overnight soyoil down 250 points (limit down) on weak weekly export settled 54.98 and morning Dalian palm oil futures also 400+ points helping CPO futures reaching low 3664, 162 points below the SAR 3826 that was triggered yesterday.
• March: +386-66-69 = +251. It is a good month since only have 2 bad trades not what I expected in Multiple Losing Trades. The short 3826 on 25/3 will be carried forward to April for next SAR.
• Q1 : +347-187+251 = +411.
• 7/4: We had the April's first SAR yesterday at 3818, 1 point below yesterday's high 3819. The selling 3826 on 25/3 had seen a low 3495 before turning buy signal 3818, giving up 300+ points of profit range! 
• 8/4: A wild swing day open 3805 and down to 3760 then up until 3926 before coming back to 3791 close. Today's SAR trade signal 3753 is not triggered and tomorrow's SAR 3676 is much lower. If it is triggered, it will be a big loss!
• 12/4: Today we have MPOB data with higher supply and higher end stock; therefore prices were flushed down in the afternoon and triggered SAR sell signal 3687. The biggest losing trade since beginning of this year.
• 15/4: About 220 points of June July spread will either make a huge profit or loss for tomorrow update due to change of contract month. If 3791 SAR buy signal is triggered today against the 3687, it will be another big losing trade today; or else, tomorrow will show a large artificial floating profit in holding short 3687 !
• 15/4*: We had SAR buy signal 3791 in the morning session with another big losing trade! Change of new contract month with June July spread about 210+ will 'theoretically" trigger SAR sell signal tomorrow because July is much lower than June even though SAR sell signal "practically" is at 3736 June, waiting to be triggered !? But, we will theoretically update a sell signal tomorrow again due to the big discount spread on June July for consistency in this blog.  
• 16/4: "Theoretically" SAR sell signal 3736 is triggered at opening 3651. "Practically" is holding buy signal 3791 triggered on 15/4 as we can see in the above due to change of contract month JUNE JULY. However, we follow the theoretical price for consistency in the blog.
• 19/4: After 2 trading days the big gap due to change of contract month that affected many on 16/4, we can start following the July contract and stick to the theoretical SAR sell signal 3651 aka 3736 depend our own personal trade strategies since the SAR buy signal is there to guide us from now on.
• 20/4: Multiple Losing Trades...4 continuous losing trades even though is just theoretical and is enough to wipe out traders who overtrade. 3789 SAR buy signal is triggered. 
• 26/4: Soyoil reached 59.98 July during Asian time, but CPO futures opened 3990 and high 4009 in a while only, then went to day low 3852. Another wild day ! It seems the Long 3789 will be carried forward to next month and April month is a month of loss !
• 27/4: Soyoil futures 62.00 is about 5600 vs CPO Futures 4000, different RM1600 or USD 400 !! New world record ??   
• 28/4: In 24 hours, soyoil futures high 63+ was flushed to low near 59. Such a move made CPO Futures opened 3922 against yesterday's close 4069, hitting low 3913 before closing 3942. April will be a month of loss since the next SAR sell trading signal is far below at 3777 on 30/4.
• April: +8-131-104-55-53= -335
• 30/4: The long 3789 on 20/4 will be carried forward to May. As you can see at the above comments in April, it is definitely painful to see but learn to know losses is utmost important to survive and stop us from over-trading. 
• 3/5: We will mostly have a profit trade if May has it first SAR sell signal.
• 6/5: Above 4124 is basically helping recover all the theoretical losses in April but the SAR sell signal is still quite low. 
• 7/5: 4434 high, 52 points to the historical high 4486 ! 
• 10/5: MPOB gave 1.546mt on April's end stock vs 1.444mt in March. Change of new contract month will artificially reduce the profit if SAR sell signal is triggered next week after Raya holidays.
• 12/5: Open 4499, new "world" record. Market will close at 1230pm today for Raya holidays. New Record High 4525 for the 3rd contract month (July) before heading to new contract month (August) next week.
• 17/5: New contract month, rollover 221 based on settlement prices. So, the theoretical profit will be dragged down by 221 artificially.
• 19/5: Soyoil 70.49 and CPO 4669, record high for July contract yesterday. But, we already focus on August CPO contract that new high 4468 is actually below 4525 high on 12/5. So, may be 4525 is the 3rd active contract month high for this year already after seeing soyoil made U-turn from above 70 to 68 now this morning !?  
• 20/5: We have a sell signal already 4129 for this month. Actual profit may well above 500 points (340+221) but stick to theoretical profit 340 for consistency.
• 21/5: From ("record" high 4669 if no rollover) high 4468 to low 3954 in a week and close 3993. The biggest range for this year so far with more than 500 points!?
• 24/5: Hit low 3867.
• May: +340. Only 1 trade!
• 3/6: Open 4249 which is 99 points above 4150 SAR buy signal! Actual losing trade 120 (21+99) , not 21 s shown in SAR no.14. However, just for the theoretical prices for consistency.
• 4/6: June started with a losing trade and now the theoretical buy 4150 is also struggling, seeing low 4064 today that floating loss 86 in theory. Actual floating loss based at opening 4249 which could hit 185 for just holding 1 contract ! Can you see the risk if you are over-trading!? 
• 8/6: This is the 3rd biggest theoretical losing trade (-128) so far but it is the biggest actual losing trade if based on the actual cut loss trade (-227) at opening on 3/6. These 2 trades in June can easily wipe out traders who overtrade using such technical trend indicator. 
• 10/6: MPOB production and end stock about 1.57mt, both below surveys 1.58 to 1.63. So, we will see higher than 3894 closed at 1230pm. After hitting day high 3950, it hit low 3806 before closing 3845 at 6pm.
• 11/6: From 4022(8/6) to 3623 today's low. Good round that come with extra floating profits after covering the 2 actual losses in June! But, can traders really hold on!?
• 14/6: Almost "Mission Accomplished"! Low 3298 this morning near reached 1000 points of target and closed book!
• 16/6: Change new contract month, Sep, and rollover over 34 at opening for the short to maintain in new month.
• 18/6: Theoretically we have achieved the year target accumulated profit of 1000 points today. Mission Accomplished at 3289!
• 30/6: What is the accumulated profit? quarterly profit? monthly profit?
• June: -21-128+393 = +244. Total 3 trading signals. 
• Q2 : -335+340+244 = +249. So Q1+Q2 = +411+249 = +660 is the accumulated profit.
• 7/7: Put back the words "otherwise, hold on...", starting from SAR no.17
• 12/7: MPOB (P1.606m, S1.614m, E1.419m), bullish but opened high sold down like morning session.
• 15/7: Rollover Sep Oct 60, meaning profit artificially lower by 60pts.
• July: 0 or ZERO trade signal!
• 6/8: after profit taking on first trading of August of 536 ticks, it is considered a volatile week, range 4334 - 4093 and closed 4283 last second, trading 4280s to 4250s in last few seconds.
• 16/8: the long 4244 (4/8) has "rollover" around 110s lower. But, the sell SAR signal remain very low and therefore it is holding on for longer time now.
• 18/8: Turn sell 4309 with theoretical profit 65, actually reach above 170s (65+110s) from the rollover. 
• August: +536-79+65-44-69 = +409. Total 5 trade signals.
• 10/9: MPOB end stock reach 1.8m and CPO Futures 230pm hit below 4300 opening and trigger sell signal.
• 15/9: 5th Losing Trades in a row with change of month next 2 days may badly affect the SAR artificially again. The spread is currently between 110 to 105.
• 17/9: 6th losing trades due to change of month, artificially incur more losses. But must record for consistency. 
• 21/9: Dynamic Circuit Breakers will be in effect with a width of 3.5%. If a contract market moves beyond +/- 3.5% within an hour during the overnight session, trading will be paused for two minutes. -- taken from CME FAQ. Yesterday, will trades happened at 1030am (opening 4176) to 1033am had triggered DCB at around 4100 and hit low 4032 then paused 2 minutes and reopened 4100 and up to 4250 day high. 218 points range in less than 2 hours in the morning session.
• 23/9: 7th losing trade! See the SAR no.26
• 28/9: 8th Losing trade! Many can't survive without early profit? The sell 4326 was triggered and hit low 4318 only, then went up to 4477 before closing 4445.
• 30/9: Open 4545 way above SAR 4486. Thus, actual loss is 219 instead of 160 as shown in no.28. This is the 9th losing trade. Multiple Losing Trades is finally appeared in September that basically can kill all good traders! 
• September: -80-77-107-68-66-66-160 = -624, Total 7 Losing trades!
• Q3 : 0+409-624 = -215. 
• So, Q1+Q2+Q3 = +411+249-215 = +445 is the accumulated profit.
• 30/9*: Huge sept's loss hit 624, MLT even reached 737 since 30/8 started. Accumulated profit had reduced to 445 only. What will be the final quarter result from Oct to Dec?
• 4/10: Prices hit low 4486 (29/9 buy signal) after opening 4500. Closed 4586, 100 points higher from low! 
• 5/10: New record high 4786. Spot month high 5000!
• 6/10: New high 4880! Spot month high 5096!
• 8/10: New high 4981! Spot month high 5139!
• 12/10: Yesterday same high 4981 but spot month new high 5170.
• 13/10: New high 5039! Spot month bid above 5200 but no trade above it. The SAR next day will be much lower! from 4673 to 4507.   
• 15/10: Rollover +101, meaning the long is getting lower or in favour of long position.
• 20/10: new high 5090 and close 5066.
• 21/10: new high 5220, flushing down to 4940 and close 4966.
• 22/10: down to low 4816. 2 trading days range 404...ERROR! will be the peak over? 4486 ran up to 5220 generate 734 points of profit range and fell 404 points to the low this morning.
• 29/10: The P&L of long in 29/9 will be carried forward to November.
• October: 0 or ZERO trade signal! Same with July!
• 8/11: After 9 losing trades, we have finally seen a profit trade! The theoretical long 4486 (actual 4545) has its theoretical SAR 4851 (actual 4790) at today's opening after holding on more than one month! Can you survive the 9 losing trades looking at the SAR no.21 to 28? 
• 9/11: Low 4706, closed 4789
• 10/11: SAR buy 4938 hit a loss of 87 ticks (actual 148 ticks!)
• 11/11: high 4980 low 4832 close 4884. Another wild day!
• 15/11: Rollover 200 points! With such a big spread, SAR sell signal will theoretically be triggered tomorrow even though actual SAR will be holding on LONG. Let's wait and see tomorrow trade signal!
• 16/11: SAR is artificially triggered due to 200 points spread and change of contract month. Open 4830 is theoretical sell signal with indicator 4868 sell SAR no.31. However, the actual situation is remained long 4938 at FCPO Jan contract month. The note here is maintained its theory write-up for consistency so that we can record the theoretical results systematically.
• 17/11: Get the theoretical SAR 4868 today after opening 4830 gap down yesterday. But, price range 4910 and 4831 today moving up momentum and close 4892. If gap up 40 points tomorrow, we will see another new theoretical SAR buy signal (even though the Actual is remained holding on long 4938 at Jan contract which reach high 5105 today) 
• 18/11: Looking at the SAR 4932 which is not far away from opening 4914, the SAR no.31 or sell 4868 theoretically can be used now by taking the profit against the SAR no.30 (long 4938). So, let's look that the short 4868 from the SAR no.31.
• 18/11*: Opening 4939 at 230pm above SAR no.32 (4932), and therefore we have a new trade after prices moved down to low 4859 below 4868 SAR this morning but closed 1 point below high 4924. Now we can ignore the SAR no.30 which held on long signal but affected by change of contract month triggered SAR no.31.
• 19/11: Reach high 5069 from low 4971 but close 4988 !!!
• 22/11: OHLC 4947/4976/4905/4961
• 23/11: 5020/5025/4842/4848. A wild trade and hit New SAR no.33 as 4th losing trade.
• 24/11: 4927/4937/4851/4909
• 25/11: 4950/4995/4921/4923
• 26/11: 4910/4945/4838/4851. 6th losing trade and November is turning Negative!
• 29/11: 4900/4931/4832/4858
• November: +365-87-70-64-65-90-70 = -81. Compare to April & September!
• 30/11: 4760/4806/4638/4668
• 1/12: 4718/4737/4657/4688
• 2/12: 4639/4677/4567/4652. Reached low 4567. 2 days IPOC ended today.
• In trading, Fear drives Results, Greed stops Complacency. Motivate FEAR and GREED but must has good capital risk ratio.
• 6/12: 4805/4830/4734/4751
• 6/12*: Night Market (T+1) officially started 9pm to 1130pm, 4750/47834750/4780. Volume 1226 for 3rd active contract (Feb). It had affected re-calibration of all charts. Therefore, we will keep monitoring the best option to adjust SAR trading signals for next year. 
• 7/12: 4790/4935/4783/4731, (T+1) 4939/4949/4919/4936
• 8/12: 4875/4899/4792/4847, (T+1) 4840/4840/4802/4835
• 9/12: 4851/4916/4764/4778, (T+1) 4762/4772/4730/4758
• 9/12*: the SAR no.37 is triggered 1st time at night trading (T+1). 
• 10/12: 4796/4841/4724/4800, NO T+1 on Friday! Wow! 4 Nights only!
• 13/12: 4723/4842/4719/4783, 4757/4815/4755/4787
• 14/12: 4754/4772/4694/4703, 4699/4717/4660/4665
• 15/12: Change of contract month will artificially inflate the profit of sell signal SAR no.37 by >200pts from Feb to Mar.
• 15/12* 4695/4701/4412/4485, 4484/4518/4467/4480
• 16/12: 4312/4444/4291/4409. 4404/4494/4396/4388. Due to change of contract month, SAR no.37 will probably the last stop and reverse trade signal for this year since there is big gap down of >200pts on new contract month MARCH against the FEBRUARY. 
• 17/12: 4500/4529/4386/4408
• 20/12: 4380/4419/4294/4295, 4304/4366/4304/4327
• 21/12: 4397/4418/4358/4390, 4424/4427/4380/4405
• 22/12: 4433/4500/4423/4454, 4460/4518/4460/4518
• 23/12: 4510/4520/4451/4478, 4483/4514/4471/4505
• 24/12: SAR no.38 was triggered but I didn't on my desk to monitor. 4546/4653/4526/4649
• 27/12: Monday. Last 5 trading days. If SAR no.38 is remained until end of this week, we will have the same number of SAR trade signals like last year! 4635/4677/4601/4603, 4606/4640/4603/4640.
• 28/12: 4636/4796/4611/4768, 4761/4770/4730/4748
• 29/12: Last 3 trading days. Had decided for YEAR 2022 format... Just use DAY session data! Not include NIGHT session (or T+1) data. 4734/4738/4652/4696, 4691/4727/4691/4716
• 30/12: 4740/4740/4667/4689, 4678/4713/4669/4710
• 31/12: The new format started on 6/12 will be readjusted back to old format by excluding night market data. Therefore, the SAR no.39 signal is sell if 4558 is triggered (NOT 4568 as stated above)
• December: -6-144+114 = -36
• Q4: 0-81-36 = -117
• So: Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4 = +411+249-215-36 = +409 is the accumulated gross profit for year 2021.

The year is ended with 2 big MLTs which can be seen between August and December. This is the most important risk we must look into it beside the total profit.

The profit and loss is basically gross and theoretical! Do your own calculation if you wish to get the "real" gross profit and loss by checking back the rollover trades.