Indicator Y Short 2254 - MPOB Figures And Afternoon Trade

MPOB had released the official October supply and demand figures:

• Output Palm Oil - 1893k Tons vs the previous 1897k Tons 
• End Month Stock -  2166k Tons vs the previous 2090k Tons
• Export - 1605k Tons vs the previous 1628k Tons.

Intertek gave the first 10-day October export at  401k Tons vs 396k Tons in September. We will only know the SGS figures for first 10-day October export later today.

The hourly indicator Y will remain its short for next few trading sessions since it is still far up high the stop and reverse buy trade signals. Update will be available once there is clear signal.

 

Biggest Monthly Drop... - Reuters News

(CPO traders should know these general data)
* Palm prices fall 5.9 pct, biggest drop since Feb. 2013
* Malaysia's March palm oil exports fall 3.1-3.4 pct -cargo surveyors
* Palm oil to suffer 20 percent loss in 3 months -technicals By Anuradha Raghu

Malaysian palm oil futures fell to their lowest in a month and a half on Monday, with prices recording their biggest monthly drop in over a year as disappointing export data stoked worries about slowing global demand for the vegetable oil. Cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services (ITS) reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports in March fell 3.1 percent to 1.21 million tonnes from a month ago, hurt by weak demand from the world's top edible oil buyers China and India.

Another cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance showed that exports for the same period fell 3.4 percent to 1.20 million tonnes shipped.

A stronger Malaysian ringgit also made the ringgit-denominated feedstock more expensive for overseas investors and refiners, curbing buying interest. The ringgit rose 0.2 percent to trade at 3.2660 against the U.S. dollar late Monday. "The weak exports are going to hold back the market," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage. "The strong ringgit is also a damper." The benchmark June contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had edged down 0.7 percent to 2,636 ringgit ($808) per tonne by Monday's close. Prices earlier fell to 2,626 ringgit, their lowest since Feb. 12. Total traded volume stood at 36,123 lots of 25 tonnes, slightly higher than the average 35,000 lots.

Technicals for the next quarter were bearish. Malaysian palm oil is expected to revisit its July 2013 low of 2,137 ringgit per tonne over the next three months, as it has completed a rebound from this level, Reuters market analyst Wang Tao said.

More details: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/31/markets-vegoils-idUSL4N0MS1DD20140331

Palm Oil Futures Sell If 4pm 2998 Or Lower

SGS gave a same palm oil export figures as Intertek at 1.17 million tons.

The CPO Futures hourly stc indicator will cut loss and turn sell if palm oil futures price is traded 2998 or lower at 4pm today.

Palm Oil Sell If 5pm 3251 Or Lower

CPO Futures hourly indicator almost cut loss and turn sell at 4pm 3232 and lower.

The hourly indicator will cut loss and turn sell if 5pm palm oil is traded below 3252, the stop limit order which suggested in the morning post.

Traders who put the stop limit order at 3252 had been triggered with loss of over 30 ticks but may have protected from further losses.

MPOB stock was higher than expected at 1.95 million tons. Intertek and SGS gave palm oil export at 395k and 412k tons for the first 10 days of June.

CPO Futures Sell If 4pm 3209 And Lower

After Intertek and SGS Malaysia palm oil export figures for the period of first 20 days in April at 612k and 639k MT being released respectively, the CPO Futures hourly indicator had reached its first profit target at 3275 and looked forward on next new profit target level at 3295 and 3315.

CPO Futures hourly indicator will seem be hard to turn sell at 4pm which palm oil futures price must be hit below 3210. Thus, Sell STOP order to cut loss can now be placed at 3245 (which will possibly be a profit still if being triggered).

CPO Futures Buy If 4pm Above 3310

CPO Futures hourly indicator will turn buy signal if 4pm palm oil price is at 3311 or higher.

Intertek palm oil export 418k MT is much lower than expectation for the first 15 days of April; judging on the figures, the palm oil export for the whole month of April will be below 1 million MT that will push up the stock even higher than expected as the production of palm oil will definitely increase in April onwards.

SGS palm oil export figures for the first 15 days of April will be out in the afternoon which is highly monitored by most trading participants should be able to give more clues about palm oil export for the coming weeks.

SGS Palm Oil Export 1.02m MT

SGS palm oil export figures in the Jan 1-25 period is 1.02m metric tons, lower than 1.04m metric tons given out last month.

CPO Futures will remain its sell 3782 unless 4pm at 3824 or higher.

SGS and Intertek Palm Oil Export

Cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd said palm oil exports Dec. 1-25 was 24% lower at 1.04 million metric tons compared with the same period a month earlier.
Another surveyor, Intertek Agri Services, Saturday estimated exports for the period at 1.0 million tons, also down 24%.

SGS Palm Oil Export 799k MT for Dec 1-20

Cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd said Malaysia's palm oil exports Dec. 1-20 fell 27% compared with the same period last month, at 799,071 metric tons today.

20oct2010 - CPO sell if 4pm 2899 or lower

Hourly CPO remain buy at 2920 and will only sell if 4pm below 2900. Palm oil cargo surveyor, SGS, said Oct 1-20 palm oil export up5 over percent at 929k MT.

If buying 2920 can sustain, target 2960 can be reached in near term since the hourly indicator didn't turn sell this morning. The 25 average cut loss point at 2895 can be set to protect unwanted losses.