Saturday, 1 January 2022

CPO Futures Trades In Year 2022

We continue the ONE YEAR ONE POST of the daily Crude Palm Oil Futures trade signals which we started in year 2020. Stop And Reverse (SAR) trade signals will always be given out in advance for readers traders to view before opening market unless there is any unforeseen circumstances. Notes will be posted if needed, at best we can. 

BMD started Night Trading (T+1) at 9pm to 11:30pm on Monday 6/12/2021. (But, we stay on DAY DATA ONLY for all Year 2022 updates for own personal reasons. So, we will ignore Night Trading data.)

The theoretical accumulated gross profit & loss for the past two years :

  • 2020 @ 681 points (or RM17,025.00 per contract) from 38 SARs , and 
  • 2021 @ 409 points (or RM10,225.00 per contract) from 38 SARs too.
Eye on the Multiple Losing Trades (MLTs) which is the most important feature in trading success while setting up good capital risk ratio is a must. For example, look at last year's April and August to December about the MLTs which would definitely wipe out traders.  
  • SAR 2021 is brought forward to year 2022, that is, Long 4635 on 24/12/2021. But after readjusting to old format, Long 4614 is used to calculated the profit and loss of this year.
  1. Sell 5430 +795 (16/2) (read note dated 15/2 and 16/2) if 5445 is traded on 16/2/2022; else, hold Long 4635 (since 24/12/21)
  2. Buy 5622 -192 if 5622 is traded 17/2night&18/2day (updated! Read Notes) 
  3. Sell 6277 +655 if 6277 is traded on 10/3night or 14/3day
  4. Buy 6166 +111 if 6166 is traded on 22/3night or 23/3day (actual: -222)
  5. Sell 5823 -343 if 5823 is traded on 28/3night or 29/3day
  6. Buy 5997 -174 if 5997 is traded on 5/4night or 6/4day
  7. Sell 5792 -205 if 5792 is traded on 6/4night or 7/4day
  8. Buy 5972 -180 if 5972 is traded on 7/4night or 11/4day
  9. Sell 6242 +269 if 6242 is traded on 12/5night or 17/5day
  10. Buy 6337 -95 if 6337 is traded on 23/5night or 24/5day
  11. Sell 6223 -114 if 6233 is traded on 7/6night or 8/6day (read 9/6 note)
  12. Buy 4001 +2222 if 4001 is traded on 27/7night or 28/7day
  13. Sell 3827 -174 on 2/8night if 3826 is traded on 1/8night or 2/8day (read 28/7 note)
  14. Buy 4031 -204 if 4031 is traded on 4/8night or 8/8day
  15. Sell 4029 -2 if 4029 is traded on 18/8night or 19/8day (read 10/8note)
  16. Buy 4207 -178 if 4207 is traded on __night or 22/8day
  17. Sell 4141 -66 if 4141 is traded on 29/8night or 30/8day (read 24/8note)
  18. Buy 3899 +242 if 3899 is traded on 20/9night or 21/9day
  19. Sell 3773 -126 if 3773 is traded on 22/9night or 23/9day.
  20. Buy 3664 +109 if 3664 is traded on 4/10night or 5/10day
  21. Sell 3615* -49 if 3615 is traded on 13/10night(3615) or 14/10day(3846) =>> (3615-3846 =  -231ticks) (read notes 14/10)
  1. Sell 4226 +562 if 4226 is traded on 8/11night or 9/11day
  2. Buy 4165 +61 if 4165 is traded on 23/11night or 24/11day
  3. Sell 4051 -114 if 4051 is traded on 1/12night or 2/12day
  4. Buy 4005 +46 if 4005 is traded on 22/12night or 27/12day
  5. Sell if 3975 is traded on 29/12night or 30/12day Buy4005 bring forward to Year 2023
Notes:
  • W1: without using T+1 data, Open4718, High5047 Low4718 range for a start. Close4996. The next SAR sell signal will be much higher than the Long 4635 already. 
  • W2: Open4995 H5164 L4950 C5127. Rollover of 170 for W3.
  • W3: O4954, H5327, L4912, C5323. Rollover 170 mean now price Long is 4465 (4635-170). But will keep recording the long 4635 as the theoretical price. consistency! Reach new high 5327 on Friday.
  • W4: O5298. H? L5222 C?. Theoretically MISSION ACCOMPLISHED when price hit 5435 with gross profit of 800 points or RM20,000 per contract. 5435 is traded on Thursday 27/1 first 15 minutes opening. If based on rollover 170pts in W3, 1000 pts target hit at 5465 since Long 4465 (4635-170).
  • 3/2: MISSION ACCOMPLISHED for the year 2022! AGAIN!? FCPO did reach high 5700 during CNY eve before closing 5587. Should I stop writing note?
  • 10/2: The record high 5749 (Monday, 7/2). ***The ADD-ON night trading T+1 data seemed not really much different from old DAY SESSION data after comparing them since T+1 data started 6/12/2021.*** T+1 data is included in the following day trading session.
  • 15/2: Rollover 180+ in late afternoon session mean TWICE rollover already since the long 4635 at 24/12/2021. Thus, The long 4635-170-180=4285, below 4300 at MAY new contract month. The stop and reverse SAR is above 5000, generating more than we had targeted. So, MISSION ACCOMPLISHED !!
  • 16/2: 5430 opening price is the MISSION ACCOPLISHED level this whole year (5445 was the theoretical sell signal but since open 5430, just use 5430)!!! We basically can stop here until NEXT year!!! 5430-4285 is basically the best round of trade with 2 rollover positions started from 24/12/2021. To get 4285, read 15/2 note. Technically it is nice to stay out from the market for the 1st quarter and start over only at 1/4 ??? This is because... Good Profit will come with MLTs!!!
  • 17/2: The theoretical gross profit... 5430 - 4635 (without rollover) gave 795 points while 5430 - 4285 (with rollover) gave 1145 points. Good profit based on per contract basis. But, this is not really as important as MLTs - Multiple Losing Trades. The MLTs affect drawdown that can wipe out traders! Let's wait and see how many MLTs will have this year.
  • 18/2: The 1st losing trade in lest than 48 hours! Took >1000 hours for good profit but feel the pain in <48 hours! This is technical trend trading.  
  • 25/2: 6470 is the PEAK after long 5622 was initiated at 18/2day? 6470MAY was traded at 24/2night while spot month 7093March highest in record! 
  • 1/3: MISSION ACCOMPLISHED again on SAR signal no.2 from 5622 to 6622! 
  • 8/3: First 5  months record high at 2/3 - 8757, 8034, 7108, 6657 and 6337.
  • 14/3: Only 3 months hit new high at 9/3 - 7800, 7731, 7268, 6823 and 6531
  • 15/3: Rollover (May/June) about 333 points at close, mean... short 6277 lower to 5944 but the theoretical SAR 6576 (15/3night or 16/3day) is artificially high due to rollover 333, here it means high artificial floating profit for now and next few days! 
  • 18/3: About 25 minutes trades from 5658 to 6174, starting about 330pm yesterday due to Indonesia tax issue up to USD375/ton. This was 500++ points of range in such a short period of time.
  • 23/3: 6166 is triggered as SAR buy signal with theoretical profit 111 ticks (actually is a LOSS based on the rollover price from 6277 to 5944, read note 15/3, so 5944-6166 = -222). 
  • 29/3: SAR no.5 is triggered at 5823 and the low only 5820 with price fast moving up above 6000. Judging at SAR no.4 which should be a loss instead of profit, both 2 trades have accumulated more than 500 ticks of losses. If next SAR is triggered, it will be 3rd losing trade!
  • 31/3: Q1 = +795-192+655+111-343 = +1026 "theoretical" accumulated profit.
  • 6/4: SAR no.6 is triggered. 2nd theoretical loss (actual, 3 losing trades in a row now!)
  • 7/4: SAR no.7 and its loss is 205 ticks in just 1 day!
  • 11/4: SAR no.8 is the 4th theoretical losing trade in a row. MLTs finally appear! 
  • 15/4: Rollover last minute about 145 to 150. So, SAR no.8 (Long 5972) roll at 5822/27 July contract prices.
  • 27/4: low 6416 high 7040 close 7001. If based on long 5972, MISSION ACCOMPLISHED again at 6972!!!
  • 13/5: rollover 215 july august, meaning SAR no.8 rollover twice from 5972 to 5827 to 5612! But, we will most probably see new SAR next week when August contract is new 3rd active month after MAY contract expired 12pm (6990) today. If this is a cash settlement, 6990 - 5972 = 1018 ticks of profit !!! 
  • 17/5: change of new contract month, open 6166. SAR no.9 is triggered at 6242 theoretically. Knowing impossible to get 6242, opening price is the SAR trade but will still use 6242 for theoretical calculation due to consistency and easy reference. Based on the rollover to 5612, profit is 630 but lower to 554 due to opening price.
  • 9/6: SAR no.11 has been triggered today but failed to update due to unforeseen event. It turned selling 6223 instead of 6233 which was not updated in advance. 
  • 15/6: rollover 80 pts will mean the SAR no.11 at 6223 is rollover down to 6143.
  • 20/6: Low 4965 is telling us that the SAR no.11 has reached beyond its 1000 pts target. MISSION ACCOMPLISHED ! 
  • 30/6: Q2 =  -174-205-180+269-95-114 = -499 "theoretical" accumulated LOSS. Refer SAR no.6 to SAR no.11.
  • 6/7: Low hit 3735 after limit down at 3757 (10%).
  • 15/7: 3489 low late evening yesterday. Rollover -35 to -60 at opening 15min give a better price for sellers to rollover higher prices.
  • 28/7: +2222 points of theoretical profit for SAR no.11 holding since 9/6. Stay out from Market for next 2 SAR or more???? 
  • 3/8: SAR no.13 was triggered at 3827 (2/8night) that I failed to update early from 3826 to 3827 :)
  • 8/8: confirmed a theory of MLTs based on 28/7note!!! But, how many MLTs will be? let's wait and see.
  • 10/8: Early signal between 11/8 - 16/8 may not be available. If SAR no.15 is triggered which probably range 3850 - 3950, I will only be able update it after 16/8. )l^l( .MPOB gave End stock 1.77m, production 1.57m. 
  • 16/8: Change of month about -20 spread give advantage for long position.
  • 19/8: SAR no.15 was triggered yday night with "2" ticks losses. Still a Loss! Need to see what is the close today at 6pm Friday to see what is the possibility!! Target another losing trade and see what will be the SAR no.16.
  • 22/8: Opening 4228 gap above SAR no.16 at 4207. This is the 4th Losing trade. How many will be in this MLTs?
  • 24/8: It is an Odd day making higher high more than lower low, and theoretically, SAR 4075 is NOT triggered due to such wild swing from 4350 to 4053 in less than 1 hour after 230pm open is considered as invalid since higher high is more than lower low. This is the WEAKNESS of the indicator that finally appears in today's trading range. 
  • 30/8: 5th Losing trade, SAR no.17 is triggered at 4141 just a day before the Merdeka Day.
  • 12/9: MPOB end stock 2.09mt. 1st time go above 2mt since 12/2019@2.007mt. Highest 2/2019@3.045mt 
  • 15/9: spread closed -57, meaning rollover short for SAR no.17 @ 4141 will be higher at 4198.
  • 19/9: H3889 L3671 Dec@19/9 Vs H3856 L3692 Nov@15/9). Actual: H3889 L3671 Dec@19/9 vs H3913 L3751 Dec@15/9. 
  • 21/9: After 5 losing trades (624 in total loss), SAR no.18 at 3635 is triggered with theoretical profit 242.
  • 23/9: SAR no.19 wipe out half of the hard earned profit that took almost a month to make! This is technical trend trading! 
  • 26/9: SAR no.19 @ 3773 has good floating profit after seeing low 3431. 
  • 30/9: Q3 = +1714 (+2222-174-204-2-178-66+242-126). SAR no19@3773 will only have its P&L appear in October and Q4 when SAR no20 is triggered.
  • 4/10: Q1+Q2+Q3= +1026-499+1714 = +2241 mean 3Q theoretical accumulated gross profit is  RM56,025 per lot  (2241x25x1)
  • 5/10: SAR no.20 was triggered yesterday night at 3664 as a start for Q4. The profit is 109 ticks after holding on the short 3773 (SAR no.19).
  • 11/10: MPOB Sept end stock reached 2.3mil tons indonesia's 6mt in July, so total may reach 10mt if indonesia sept end stock is 7.7mt ? SAR no.20 remain long 3664 after MPOB today.
  • 14/10: * mark indicate a crucial issue where SAR no.21 at 3615 is triggered during night session. If price goes up above 3846 of last week high during day session, SAR no.21 will be invalid. Another issue is next week will ne new contract month with rollover -36-40 levels. If invalid price triggered, it is a real loss for trader even though system remains using theoretical price and have to revert back to the SAR no.20 instead of SAR no.21  
  • 14/10: Afternoon session triggered high 3846 making the SAR no.21 INVALID theoretically and therefore SAR no.20 had to be continued holding on (that is 3664). The realized loss (stress!) of selling SAR no.21@3615 had to be reversed at 3846, incurring 231 ticks loss (3615-3846). This is another tough issue for technical trend indicator that failed to avoid such dilemma and kill traders!
  • 14/10: split and write the new SAR since the SAR no.20 and no.21 have generated a good learning lesson and keep for future reference.
  • 25/10: Reach high 4263 from SAR no.20@3664
  • 31/10: only 1 SAR for Oct theoretically but the painful error must be recorded to remind ourselves that technical trend indicator had shown its weak point! We need strong discipline to reverse back the position happened on SAR no.21 and maintain holding on the SAR no.20 buy signal that day. So, Oct is a losing month in real life instead of profit.  
  • 2/11: just a record: MLTs+MaxDrawDown can hit RM25k/lot, so, capital risk ratio 3x will definitely not be enough to support even ONE lot if we are hit by such Unlucky MLTs+MaxDrawDown. So, raise up your own margin, not follow BMD minimum margin.
  • 3/11: reach high 4497 at opening but close 4336 1 tick of the low 4335. Profit range hit 833 ticks from 3664 to 4497, and seems that will be the top?
  • 9/11: SAR no.1 (or SAR no.21 in theory) is triggered at 4226 in afternoon trading session, showing theoretical profit of 562 ticks! Looking back at the painful "error" of 231, profit had been much affected.
  • 15/11: Rollover -35, SAR no.1 @4226 become @4261 FCPO Feb23 new contract month.
  • 1/12: Q1+Q2+Q3 = +1026-499+1714 = +2241, Oct Nov +106+562+61 in theory. (real: need to -231 as happened on 13-14/10)
  • 2/12: open 4030 below SAR sell signal 4051 by 21 points. But will based on 4051 theoretical price for consistency update.
  • 13/12: MPOB: supply 1.68mt and end stock 2.29mt for November. After 5 months up, both data finally drop with good demand in last 2 months, export >1.5m and local consumption >200k. FCPO lowest 3721 yday after SAR sell 4051 on 2/12day.
  • 19/12: rollover -15 meaning SAR4051 became SAR4066. There will be only 2 more weeks or 9 trading days only! 
  • 27/12: Giving up low 3815 and turning buy 4005 is another painful trade! Christmas off with Dalian up a lot in 2 days make CPO opening 4005 from 3830 previous settlement price. Hit high 4099 in 10 min after opening.
  • 30/12 Friday: last trading day, Buy 4005 at 27/12 may be brought forward to next year.
  • 30/12*: The Buy4005 will be brought forward to Year 2023.
  • Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4 = +1026-499+1714+664= +2905 ticks or RM72,625.00 accumulated profit per contract size basis for year 2022 in theory.
  • Practically we won't be able to get such a huge profit since there will be a lot of leakages like trading costs, gaps unfilled trades and error@SAR no.21, etc etc
Happy New Year to all readers traders. We are heading to new post for year 2023.