Tuesday, 7 January 2020

CPO Futures Trades In Year 2020

The CPO Futures blog has been dormant for year 2019! In record, it was another challenging year with real profits only started after second half of year 2019. Full year performance for year 2019 was +457 ticks per contract basis. Just refer back to previous post and readers traders will be able to check the last 5 years full year performance.

Enter into Year 2020, we decided to write again! However, we are writing a totally new set of system to test the "unbelievable" set of trading strategy.

Firstly, the theory is the charting pattern of Higher Highs Lower Lows that can significantly affect the buy/sell signals and readers traders won't believe it. For example, buy 2190 on 16/10/2019 which was NO price traded at all (high 2260 low 2236) and it is holding on until today. Unbelievable right? Theory!! But, again but, it is an interesting trading strategy.

Just forget about any unforeseen circumstances, we try our best writing real trading strategy with early signals.

Therefore, anyway, we started Long 2190 in theory carried over from 2019 for the 2020 record. We shall see where is the sell price when it is triggered and will continue updating in this post only.

Lastly, keep coming back to this post and reader traders will be able to see the full year performance of year 2020 when we sum up at 31/12/2020. Be it profit or loss, we definitely start big and huge profit from the beginning of year 2020:

  • Long 2190 ( on 16/10/2019). It is the base since there was no sell signal after that until 31/12/2019. (we will change the below PRICES and/or DATES every day, trying our best possible for reader traders to get early signal in advance.)
  1. Sell 3010 +820 (14/1). if traded 3010 on 14/1/2020. Welcome 2020 with a Bang (820 ticks)! 
  2. Buy 2820 +190 (6/2). if traded 2820 on 6/2/2020; or else, hold on 3010.  
  3. Sell 2738 -82 (11/2). if 2738 is traded on 11/2/2020; or else, hold on 2820
  4. Buy 2560 +178 (5/3). if 2560 is traded on 5/3; or else, hold on 2738.
  5. Sell 2445 -115 (6/3). if 2445 is traded on 6/3; or else, hold on 2560.
  6. Buy 2386 +59 (18/3). if 2386 is traded on 18/3; or else, hold on 2445.
  7. Sell 2212 -174 (19/3). if 2212 is traded on 19/3; or else, hold on 2386.
  8. Buy 2295 -83 (20/3). if 2295 is traded on 20/3; or else, hold on 2212.
  9. Sell 2301 +6 (2/4). if 2301 is traded on 2/4; or else, hold on 2295.
  10. Buy 2340 -39 (8/4). if 2340 is traded on 8/4; or else, hold on 2301.
  11. Sell 2294 -56 (9/4). if 2294 is traded on 9/4; or else, hold on 2340.
  12. Buy 2077 +217 (15/5). if 2077 is traded on 15/5; or else, hold on 2294.
  13. Sell 2366 +289 (26/6). if 2366 is traded on 26/6; or else, hold on 2077.
  14. Buy 2396 -30 (6/7). if 2396 is traded on 6/7; or else, hold on 2366.
  15. Sell 2355 -41 (7/7). if 2355 is traded on 7/7; or else, hold on 2396.
  16. Buy 2409 -54(8/7). if...
  17. Sell 2377 -32 (10/7). if 2377 is traded on 10/7; or else, hold on 2409.
  18. Buy 2449 -72 (14/7). if 2449 is traded on 14/7; or else hold on 2377.
  19. Sell 2573 +124 (28/7). if 2573 is traded on 28/7; or else, hold on 2449.
  20. Buy 2656 -83 (30/7). if 2656 is traded on 30/7; or else, hold on 2573.
  21. Sell 2662 +6 (11/8). if 2662 is traded on 11/8; or else, hold on 2656
  22. Buy 2737 -75 (13/8). if 2737 is traded on 13/8; or else, hold on 2662.
  23. Sell 2671 -66 (18/8). if 2671 is traded on 18/8; or else. hold on 2737.
  24. Buy 2740 -69 (19/8). if 2740 is traded on 19/8; or else, hold on 2671.
  25. Sell 2681 -59 (21/8). if 2681 is traded on 21/8; or else, hold on 2740.
  26. Buy 2701 -20 (28/8). if 2701 is traded on 28/8; or else, hold on 2681.
  27. Sell 2839 +138 (24/9). if 2839 is traded on 24/9; or else, hold on 2701 (2733 open).
  28. Buy 2813 +26 (6/10). if 2813 is traded on 6/10; or else, hold on 2839 (2825 open)
  29. Sell 2886 +73 (16/10). if 2886 is traded on 16/10; or else, hold on 2813.
  30. Buy 2933 -47 (21/10). if 2933 is traded on 21/10; or else, hold on 2886... (We wish < 30 SAR trades by 31/12/2020)
  31. Sell 2874 -59 (22/10). if 2874 is traded on 22/10, or else, hold on 2933.
  32. Buy 2949 -75 (23/10). if 2949 is traded on 23/10; or else, hold on 2874.
  33. Sell 3188 +239 (23/11). if 3188 is traded on 23/11; or else, hold on 2949.
  34. Buy 3322 -134 (27/11). if 3322 is traded on 27/11; or else, hold on 3188.
  35. Sell 3344 +22 (17/12). if 3344 is traded on 17/12; or else, hold on 3322.
  36. Buy 3439 -95 (18/12). if 3439 is traded on 18/12; or else, hold on 3344.
  37. Sell 3387 -52 (22/12). if 3387 is traded on 22/12; or else, hold on 3439
  38. Buy 3481 -94 (23/12). if 3481 is traded on 23/12; or else, hold on 3387.
  39. Sell if 3478 is traded on 31/12; or else, hold on 3481. (31/12/2020 note: The buy 3481 will mostly be carried forward to year 2021 already like the year 2019 which brought a huge profit in the first SAR trade in year 2020 as readers traders can see in the above SAR no.1)
( Last trading week for year 2020 and the buy 3481 will most probably be carried forward to year 2021 already. Thus, December will have accumulated loss! )

NOTES:

  • This is a Daily technical trend trading. Expecting stop and reverse trades < 40 in total.
  • Higher Highs Lower Lows will be the main objects we are looking at.
  • 1st SAR 3010 on 14/1. Huge profit 820 ticks or RM20,500 per contract!!😈 
  • The accumulated profit target 1000 ticks is "Actually" reached at 2830 on 21/1 after turning sell 3010 on 14/1! 820 ticks + 180 ticks. Thus, should the trading stop!? 
  • 2575 limit down on 28/1. Thus, no update on 29/1 since limit up price also cannot affect SAR.
  • January ONLY have 1 stop and reverse (SAR) trade! +820!
  • 1110 ticks in just "2" trades! Get ready to feel the Multiple Losing Trades (MLT)?
  • First loss of the year on 11/2. More to come on MLT? 
  • 25/2: short 2738 since 11/2 will probably no SAR until March. 
  • February: 2 SAR trades +190-82 = +108. How about March?
  • We have 5 SAR trades in total now as at 5/3.
  • 1 month hardwork 1 day gone! Loss 115 ticks in 1 day SAR trade!
  • 18-31/3 is Malaysia's Covid-19 "lockdown" days.
  • another 1 Day gone! Loss 174 ticks in 1 day SAR trade!
  • 20/3 another 1 DAY gone! Accumulated loss already if exclude the 1st 820 ticks profit.
  • 23/3 Low 2214 nearly hit SAR 2212.
  • March: 5 SAR trades +178-115+59-174-83 = -135 !!!
  • April: 3 SAR trades +6-39-56 = -89. So, 2 months down!
  • May: 1 SAR trade only, +217. Long 2077 will only be realised next month!
  • The HHLL on 26/6 affecting 2366 SAR decision for trade no.13. Theoretically, it triggers 2366 but the HH > LL make me difficult to decide. Blindly "do"!
  • June: 1 SAR trade only, +289. Short 2366 is holding on to July.
  • 3 continuous days (6/7-8/7) hit losses.
  • 14/7: 2449 in theory is done instead of 2455 opening at 230pm.
  • July: 7 SARs -30-41-54-32-72+124-83= -188 !!!, Biggest losing month?!
  • 18/8 turn sell 2671 with theoretical loss 66 due to change of contract month. Actual loss 40+.
  • Frustrated discount hit SAR due to the change of 3rd active contract month. 
  • 28/8 open 2733. So, theoretical buy 2701 is not practical!
  • August: 6 SARs +6-75-66-69-59-20 = -283 !!! Worst month?!
  • 24/9 open 2825. So, theoretical sell 2839 is not practical!
  • September: 1 SAR only with +138.
  • 16/10: Change of new 3rd contract month and 50 points discount trigger theoretical sell 2886 (open 2853). Again, we face another false signal but will have to follow the theoretical price in this blog for consistency. 
  • 22/10 sell 2874 is invalid if 2947 is traded and actual cost is not included in the above, but will recorded in here if 2947 is triggered. (At close, high is 2945, just 2 ticks below 2947 to break a record for this year that not happened yet since January started.)
  • 23/10 buy 2949 will be invalid if 2852 is traded later today. Same rule like yesterday except different trade direction.
  • October: 5 SARs +26+73-47-59-75 = -82. Another losing month.
  • 16/11: change of month gap discount 80 ticks will definitely affect SAR soon?
  • 23/11: off multiple high 3420 to 3188 in just 2 trading days and trigger sell signal!
  • November: 2 SARs +239-134 = +105
  • 2/12: December count down begin...20 more trading days and will be hard to find good result already based on the trading chart patterns in last 2 months!
  • 15/12: the huge discount of 90 ticks on 3rd 4th contract months will probably trigger SAR tomorrow! 
  • 16/12: change of month discount 91 points failed to triggered SAR at opening. Thus, hold on the long 3322. Rollover 91 points mean actually long now 3231, but, we stick to the theoretical long 3322 at the above SAR for consistency theoretical calculation of profit and loss.
  • 17/12: After 2nd day change of month only SAR is triggered with only theoretical profit of 22 points vs actual 113! But, we stick to theoretical profit for consistency updates. 
  • 18/12: Another day with SAR happened in very short period of time with a loss.
  • 22/12: it is a SAR sell day again with a loss of 52 points per contract size basis!
  • 23/12: another SAR buy with a loss of 94 points! 5 more trading days to end for this year write-up and I doubt we can see a profit in 5 trading day, the buy 3453 will most probably be carried forward to next year 2021 like what we did start in the beginning of this year where the buy was carried forward from OCTOBER 2019 as readers traders can see in the above write-up. 
  • 31/12/2020: Last trading day today and December hit with accumulated loss of 219 points per contract basis from four (4) SAR trades +22-95-52-94 as readers traders can see from the above SAR no.36 until SAR no.39. Therefore, here is the end of the write-up on this post and we will start a new post next year. Another comment in HERE for this year performance which readers traders can find it in my CPYEOH's blog. I will sum up my thought in CPYEOH's blog for year 2020 performance later evening.
Closing the Chapter of 2020... Gross Profit 681 points. 

Let us leave behind the painful moments and treasure the sweet memories... 
Wishing all readers traders have a wonderful and Healthy New Year 2021. ✌