Black Day, Manipulation Happen?

This is a black day for the 52% of Malaysian today, denting Malaysia global reputation, in following the court case of the opposition leader who had been found guilty in the sodomy case.

Manipulation? everywhere? futures trading is always having such a perception! MPOB figures is released today with production 1.16mt down 15%, stocks 1.77mt down 12% and export 1.18mt down 22%.

The question is why the previous 6 months export data in Intertek and SGS had much lower data than MPOB export data but today's export data in MPOB has data near to what was released by Intertek and SGS? Manipulation? What about production and stocks, do your own soul searching!?

Technically, FKLI FCPO short term indicator Y is still finding no stop and reverse sell trade signals today unless FKLI index futures is keep trading below 1800 and FCPO below 2300. Once there is a clear trade signal, we will post a write-up on the stop and reverse trade price. 

(TQ for the "black day" vs "dark day"!) 

Indicator Y Short 2254 - MPOB Figures And Afternoon Trade

MPOB had released the official October supply and demand figures:

• Output Palm Oil - 1893k Tons vs the previous 1897k Tons 
• End Month Stock -  2166k Tons vs the previous 2090k Tons
• Export - 1605k Tons vs the previous 1628k Tons.

Intertek gave the first 10-day October export at  401k Tons vs 396k Tons in September. We will only know the SGS figures for first 10-day October export later today.

The hourly indicator Y will remain its short for next few trading sessions since it is still far up high the stop and reverse buy trade signals. Update will be available once there is clear signal.

 

Biggest Monthly Drop... - Reuters News

(CPO traders should know these general data)
* Palm prices fall 5.9 pct, biggest drop since Feb. 2013
* Malaysia's March palm oil exports fall 3.1-3.4 pct -cargo surveyors
* Palm oil to suffer 20 percent loss in 3 months -technicals By Anuradha Raghu

Malaysian palm oil futures fell to their lowest in a month and a half on Monday, with prices recording their biggest monthly drop in over a year as disappointing export data stoked worries about slowing global demand for the vegetable oil. Cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services (ITS) reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports in March fell 3.1 percent to 1.21 million tonnes from a month ago, hurt by weak demand from the world's top edible oil buyers China and India.

Another cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance showed that exports for the same period fell 3.4 percent to 1.20 million tonnes shipped.

A stronger Malaysian ringgit also made the ringgit-denominated feedstock more expensive for overseas investors and refiners, curbing buying interest. The ringgit rose 0.2 percent to trade at 3.2660 against the U.S. dollar late Monday. "The weak exports are going to hold back the market," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage. "The strong ringgit is also a damper." The benchmark June contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had edged down 0.7 percent to 2,636 ringgit ($808) per tonne by Monday's close. Prices earlier fell to 2,626 ringgit, their lowest since Feb. 12. Total traded volume stood at 36,123 lots of 25 tonnes, slightly higher than the average 35,000 lots.

Technicals for the next quarter were bearish. Malaysian palm oil is expected to revisit its July 2013 low of 2,137 ringgit per tonne over the next three months, as it has completed a rebound from this level, Reuters market analyst Wang Tao said.

More details: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/31/markets-vegoils-idUSL4N0MS1DD20140331

Palm Oil Futures Sell If 4pm 3001 Or Lower

CPO Futures hourly stc indicator will cut loss and turn sell if palm oil futures price is traded below 3002 at 4pm. Otherwise remain buy 3065.

Intertek 648k SGS 653k tons for the first 15 days of palm oil export.

Palm Oil Futures Sell If 5pm Below 2976

CPO Futures hourly stc indicator will remain buy 3012 which turned buy on 29th August 1130am unless palm oil futures price is traded 2975 or lower at 5pm.

Intertek and SGS gave a same palm oil export figures for the month of August at 1.62 million tons.

Palm Oil Buy 3023 At 1130am

CPO Futures hourly stc indicator took a small profit and turned buying 3023 at 1130am, and will cut loss and turn sell if palm oil futures price is closed below 3000 at 1230pm today.

Intertek put palm oil export at 1.17 million tons for the 20 days of this month.

Palm Oil Sell If 4pm Below 2929

CPO Futures hourly stc indicator will remain buy 2968 unless the 3rd active contract month palm oil futures price is traded 2928 or lower at 4pm later today.

MPOB gave lower end month stock figures (as expected if traders compare the table as shown in http://www.101indicators.com/cpofutures/mpob/ where July closing stock always lower than June closing stock for the past few years.)

Intertek gave first 10 days export of August at 593k tons. Eye on SGS export later.

Palm Oil Sell If 4pm Below 3065

CPO Futures hourly indicator turn sell signal is adjusted higher for 4pm trading signal. The hourly indicator will turn sell once palm oil futures price is traded 3064 or lower at 4pm.

Intertek and SGS gave this month export of palm oil at 1.44 and 1.43 million metric tons as traders can see the data that had been updated in the CPO Data page to compare with the previous updated data.

Palm Oil Sell If 5pm 3251 Or Lower

CPO Futures hourly indicator almost cut loss and turn sell at 4pm 3232 and lower.

The hourly indicator will cut loss and turn sell if 5pm palm oil is traded below 3252, the stop limit order which suggested in the morning post.

Traders who put the stop limit order at 3252 had been triggered with loss of over 30 ticks but may have protected from further losses.

MPOB stock was higher than expected at 1.95 million tons. Intertek and SGS gave palm oil export at 395k and 412k tons for the first 10 days of June.

Palm Oil Sell If 1230pm 3227 Or Lower

CPO Futures hourly indicator will cut loss and turn sell signal if palm oil futures price is traded and closed below 3228 at 1230pm. As it is about 60 ticks below buying 3287, stop limit order may be placed at 3252 for traders who do not wish to take 60 ticks risk of losses.

Eye on MPOB and both palm oil export from Interek and SGS today.

Palm Oil Buy If 1130am 3385 Or Higher

CPO Futures hourly indicator will cut loss and turn buy once palm oil futures price is traded above 3384 at 1130am today.

Eye on palm oil export figures that will be released by Intertek and SGS today.

CPO Futures Sell If 4pm 3193 Or Lower

CPO Futures hourly indicator will turn sell signal if palm oil futures price is traded 3193 or lower at 4pm later today.

Sell stop limit order and profit taking targets will be remained as previous post stated.

Supply and demand official figures had been released by MPOB with stock for April was 1.67mil MT vs 1.61mil MT as in March. April production was 1.53mil MT vs 1.42mil MT in March. The First 10-day palm oil export in May was 324k MT given by ITS and SGS respectively at same figures.

CPO Futures Sell If 4pm 3209 And Lower

After Intertek and SGS Malaysia palm oil export figures for the period of first 20 days in April at 612k and 639k MT being released respectively, the CPO Futures hourly indicator had reached its first profit target at 3275 and looked forward on next new profit target level at 3295 and 3315.

CPO Futures hourly indicator will seem be hard to turn sell at 4pm which palm oil futures price must be hit below 3210. Thus, Sell STOP order to cut loss can now be placed at 3245 (which will possibly be a profit still if being triggered).

CPO Futures Buy If 4pm Above 3310

CPO Futures hourly indicator will turn buy signal if 4pm palm oil price is at 3311 or higher.

Intertek palm oil export 418k MT is much lower than expectation for the first 15 days of April; judging on the figures, the palm oil export for the whole month of April will be below 1 million MT that will push up the stock even higher than expected as the production of palm oil will definitely increase in April onwards.

SGS palm oil export figures for the first 15 days of April will be out in the afternoon which is highly monitored by most trading participants should be able to give more clues about palm oil export for the coming weeks.

Intertek And SGS Palm Oil Export Data

Dear traders, please be informed that all palm oil export data from both palm oil cargo surveyors, Intertek Agri Services and SGS Malaysia, in this blog will mostly be updated in the page CPO Data of this blog without any write up from today onwards.

Therefore, just remember that these data will come out every month on the date of 10th, 15th, 20th, 25th and every last day of the month. Intertek palm oil data will be out in morning session while SGS figures will be released in afternoon session.

Intertek Palm Oil Export 526k MT

Cargo surveyor Intertek Agri Services said Malaysia's palm oil exports during the March 1-15 period fell 17% from a month earlier to 526,407 metric tons.

Intertek Palm Oil Export 354k MT

Cargo surveyor Intertek Agri Services said palm oil exports during the March 1-10 is 354k metric tons. ( vs 437k MT last month )

Intertek February Palm Oil Export 1.11m MT

Intertek, cargo surveyor, put palm oil export for the month of February at 1.11m metric tons vs 1.24m metric tons last month.

Intertek Palm Oil Export 973k MT

Intertek palm oil export is 973k metric tons for the Feb 1-25 period vs 1.06m metric tons last month.

Intertek Palm Oil Export 825k Vs 853 MT

Intertek has just released palm oil export for the 1-20 February at 825k metric tons.