MPOB - Palm Oil June Supply And Demand Figures

MPOB - Palm Oil Supply And Demand Figures for June 2015 is officially released today:

Production (Tonnes) : 1,763,928 ( down 2.6% )

PO Stock (Tonnes)       : 2,151,287 ( down 4.3% )

PO Export (Tonnes) : 1,697,256 ( up 5.2% )

Indicator Y s2317 - MPOB Official Data On Palm Oil

The MPOB palm oil supply and demand data for the month of May has been released today:

• end month stock is 2.24 million tonnes.
• production 1.81 million tonnes
• export 1.61 million tonnes  

Please refer back the post being published few days ago on the Reuters poll on palm oil by clicking HERE.

Reuters Poll On May's Palm Oil Supply Demand Data

Here is the excerpt from the Reuters poll on the palm oil production, export and end month stock for the month of May before the official announcement from MPOB on Wednesday.

Breakdown of May estimates (in tonnes):
Range Median
Production 1,740,000 - 1,828,914 1,788,990
Exports 1,481,000 - 1,701,000 1,605,000
Imports 47,500 - 100,000 57,500
Closing stocks 2,072,000 - 2,330,000 2,141,000

* May palm stocks seen down 2.4 pct m/m to 2.14 mln tonnes
* Exports seen up 36.6 pct, biggest m/m rise since Oct 2006
* Output seen rising 5.6 pct m/m to 1.79 mln tonnes
* Malaysian Palm Oil Board data due June 10 after 0430 GMT

By Anuradha Raghu
($1 = 3.7140 ringgit) (Editing by Tom Hogue)

Indicator Y L2145 s1856.5 - MPOB Palm Oil Stock 2.19MT

Another pressure day for FCPO short term technical trend indicator Y after seeing the release of MPOB figures. End month palm oil stock for April up nearly 18% at 2.194 million tons due to higher production and lower export.

We will probably be able to see the stop and reverse trade sell signal at 5pm or/and 6pm trades after 4pm data collection especially if cpo futures price is traded below 2160 at 4pm later today. So, please eye on the write-up after 4pm if the cpo futures price is traded lower in the afternoon trading session. The indicator Y long 2145 will be in profit trade or losing trade?

The indicator Y short 1856.5 on FKLI will have to take profit and turn long once the index futures is last traded above 1813 at 4pm later today.

In short, take profit turn long if 4pm 1813.5 or higher. Otherwise, hold on short and wait for next update.

Indicator Y L2145 s1856.5 - FKLI 1245pm SAR 1814.5

The stop and reverse trade signal has been adjusted lower again for the short 1856.5 on FKLI based on the short term technical trend indicator Y trading guides. Thus, the indicator will take profit and turn long if the index futures is last traded 1814.5 or higher at 1245pm in the morning trading session close today.

Again, this is without taking into consideration on any unforeseen circumstances when we post the indicative price 1814.5 for readers traders to digest.

The indicator Y long 2145 on FCPO is still have no stop and reverse sell trade signal for readers traders to digest and it basically has to hold on the long position while waiting for the MPOB supply and demand data!

Indicator Y L2145 s1856.5 - Good Trend FKLI But Not FCPO

The indicator Y short 1856.5 on FKLI, since 28th April at 4pm, is kept riding on its good floating profit with the down trend which saw the index futures price low 1791.5 with 60 over index points of unrealized profit.

We will only post a stop and reverse buy trade signal when the indicative price is near to the current futures prices and we will try our best to post up ONE hour in advance.

The indicator Y long 2145 on FCPO is however not enjoying like what is happening on FKLI short 1856.5 even though the cpo futures price did hit high 2200 after turning long 2145.

The indicator Y long 2145 is still struggling and will face tremendous pressure if the cpo futures price is traded below 2150 or even below its buying level today. This is because the prices may affect the indicator Y indicative price being adjusted much higher.

The fundamental news on MPOB data also gave more pressure to cpo futures market on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives that will only be released on next Monday. Both Bloomberg and Reuters news did say that the end month stock of palm oil to be above 2 million tons for April month.  

Indicator Y s2175 s1844 - MPOB March Data

MPOB put March production 1495 export 1182 end stock 1866 (figures is in thousand tons) which mean they are up about 33%, 21% and 7% respectively against February data.

We will remain our focus on FKLI FCPO stop and reverse buy trade signals for the short term technical trend indicator Y and it is believed that they are still high in next trading session and therefore it is not given here at the moment.

Indicator Y s2175 s1844 - Multiple Losing Trades

Readers traders should be able to able to find out a lot of "multiple losing trades" being mentioned every time we start facing losses. It is our main focus on multiple losing trades instead of keep telling you how great we are in making good trades.

As traders, you should know the term " cut loss short, let profit run" theory. Therefore, once you can handle your losses, profit will come to you "automatically".

FKLI short 1844 is now our focus, let's enjoy the "fear and greed" while finding the 1015am stop and reverse buy trade signal at 1853 or higher.

FCPO short 2175 is having some floating profit and the stop and reverse buy trade signal above 2204.

Eye on MPOB official demand and supply figures today. Here is an excerpt from Bloomberg news:

* Production in Malaysia seen +27% to 1.43m mt in March m/m, says Paramalingam Supramaniam, director at Selangor-based broker Pelindung Bestari, citing estimates from Malaysian Palm Oil Association

* NOTE: Production seen +18% to 1.32m mt in March m/m: Bloomberg survey

* “Supply is rebounding very quickly, so that would exert extra pressure on prices,” Hiro Chai, associate director at CIMB Futures, says by phone in Kuala Lumpur

* Production seen higher in March due to more working days and seasonal recovery in output, says Vijay Mehta, director at Commodity Links in Singapore

Indicator Y s2165 L1779.5 - CPO Production Up 48% ?

There was a news report from Reuters quoted production of crude palm oil in March up 48% yesterday. Judging on the figures, the MPOB official supply and demand figures will have a sharp increase on the end stock more than 1.8 million tons when it is released next week. What is the game plan? As this is just a fundamental news, we are just sharing it without further comments.

FCPO short 2165 using the indicator Y is still hovering around its selling price with no stop and reverse buy trade signal available for readers traders to digest.

FKLI long 1779.5 will have its stop and reverse sell trade signal available in this CPO Futures blog if the index futures price can trade near yesterday's low 1818.

Black Day, Manipulation Happen?

This is a black day for the 52% of Malaysian today, denting Malaysia global reputation, in following the court case of the opposition leader who had been found guilty in the sodomy case.

Manipulation? everywhere? futures trading is always having such a perception! MPOB figures is released today with production 1.16mt down 15%, stocks 1.77mt down 12% and export 1.18mt down 22%.

The question is why the previous 6 months export data in Intertek and SGS had much lower data than MPOB export data but today's export data in MPOB has data near to what was released by Intertek and SGS? Manipulation? What about production and stocks, do your own soul searching!?

Technically, FKLI FCPO short term indicator Y is still finding no stop and reverse sell trade signals today unless FKLI index futures is keep trading below 1800 and FCPO below 2300. Once there is a clear trade signal, we will post a write-up on the stop and reverse trade price. 

(TQ for the "black day" vs "dark day"!) 

MPOB Oil Palm Planted Area By States

As of December 2013, here is the table for oil palm planted area:

Click the table for bigger view

It is basically 50:50 between East Malaysia and West Malaysia now a day; both are equally importance now, and any supply and demand data from MPOB on both sides will have to be monitored carefully even though we are just focusing on the technical trend trading. Especially the recent weather and flood that was reported affecting the supply of palm oil.

Readers traders can see that there is a figure of 5.23 million hectares with 4.5 million hectares matured oil palm. What will be the total supply figures for year 2014 when the MPOB figures is released.

MPOB will issue its official supply and demand figures only on 12/1/2015.

 
Source: MPOB

Preview MPOB Figures From Reuters

* Dec palm stocks forecast at 2.02 mln tonnes, lowest since July
* Output seen down 22.5 pct at 1.36 mln tonnes
* Exports expected to drop 1.5 pct to 1.49 mln tonnes
* Malaysian Palm Oil Board data due Jan 12 after 0430 GMT

Indicator Y Long 2163 - 40 Now 200 To Go

It is definitely a long journey even if it is a right trend as we can see the hourly indicator Y long 2163 has generated 40 points of floating profit so far and it needs to reach above 2400 to break-even in a single trade as mentioned in last few posts, 200 points from the last closing price of 2200 at 1230pm just now.

The last 7 multiples losing trades of 249 points per contract size needs 500 points of profit in order to post a good recovery, which mean, the cpo futures price must reach 2663 in next 16 trading days! Too much ambitious!

Talking on MPOB supply to down nearly 5% and higher end month stock based on the low export, there is a "mission impossible" job for cpo futures price to reach the high levels as given above.

Unless there is double digit down on the supply side and a very high first 10-day export figure on 10/12/2014, the 60% greed 40% fear on first target of 101 points as we always like to put, reaching 2264 level, may have been reducing some pressures to the losses. Thus, let's see whether the cpo futures price can reach 2264 or not first!

It is believed that NO stop and reverse trade signals in next few hourly trading sessions, we will update a post once there is a clear trade signal.

Indicator Y Short 2254 - MPOB Figures And Afternoon Trade

MPOB had released the official October supply and demand figures:

• Output Palm Oil - 1893k Tons vs the previous 1897k Tons 
• End Month Stock -  2166k Tons vs the previous 2090k Tons
• Export - 1605k Tons vs the previous 1628k Tons.

Intertek gave the first 10-day October export at  401k Tons vs 396k Tons in September. We will only know the SGS figures for first 10-day October export later today.

The hourly indicator Y will remain its short for next few trading sessions since it is still far up high the stop and reverse buy trade signals. Update will be available once there is clear signal.

 

Indicator Y Short 2254 - Day 3 And 6pm Trade

Target cpo futures price 2205 hit even though crude oil never reach 77. The selling with 2000 lots queuing near 2200 can probably stop buyers from support 2200 level if the sellers' size is genuine.

MPOB will release the official palm oil supply and demand figures on Monday and it may be a bearish figures since the sell down has volume today!

The hourly indicator Y short 2254 will have to hold to Day 4 since it is believed that the stop and reverse buy trade signal will not be triggered at 6pm close today.

The Buzz Page In CPO Futures Blog

Readers traders actually can see some useful information in the Buzz page in this cpo futures blog. Just click on the "Buzz" page above and readers traders can see the following websites in one page:

• Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Price Quotes
• MPOB Palm Oil Price Quotes
• CBOT Soybean Oil Price Quotes

Or click this link - http://cpofutures.blogspot.com/p/blog-page.html

Malaysia's palm stocks to ease in 2014, 2015 as demand picks up -MPOB

Here is some of the important figures that good to know...

Malaysian palm oil stocks could drop 14 percent by the end of 2014 from 2.09 million at the end of last month, a senior official of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) said, as export demand and domestic food and fuel needs pick up...Inventories are seen drawing down to 1.8 million tonnes by the end of the year, and are likely to end 2015 at 1.7 million tonnes, Ramli Abdullah, the head of the MPOB's economic unit, told an industry meeting in Kuala Lumpur on Friday...The industry regulator had previously pegged stocks to range between 1.6 million and 1.8 million tonnes at the end of 2014, lower than the 1.99 million tonnes piled up at the end of 2013.

Output in Malaysia is expected to rise to 20.5 million tonnes in 2015, Ramli said, in the absence of extreme weather that could hurt yields...Malaysia produced 14.66 million tonnes of crude palm oil between January and September, up 7 percent from a year earlier.

Exports of Malaysian palm oil were seen at 17.9 million tonnes in 2014, below forecasts for 18.5 million, but are expected to rise to 18.2 million in 2015...Malaysia exported 18.15 million tonnes of palm oil in 2013, with China, India, Pakistan and Europe taking the bulk of shipments.

Source: Reuters

DJPO News - Malaysia Palm Oil Stockpile Rise

SINGAPORE--Malaysia's palm oil stockpiles rose to an 18-month high at the end
of September, although exports surged 13% from August, said the Malaysian Palm
Oil Board Friday. Production fell 6.6% from a month earlier.
  The sharp rise in exports was likely due to an export tax waiver on crude
palm-oil shipments for September and October, as authorities seek to reduce
stockpiles amid a price decline.
  Palm-oil exports have been under pressure due to prospects of an abundant
soybean crop this year, which makes soybean oil prices attractive. Supply of
other oilseeds have also been healthy.

  The following are details of the September crop data and revised numbers for
August issued by MPOB:

                                      September        August      Change
                                                     On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output     1,896,899     2,031,754    Dn  6.6%
Palm Oil Exports               1,628,197     1,437,503    Up 13.3%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports      104,760          71,272    Up 47.0%
Crude Palm Oil Imports            2,670           2,523    Up  5.8%

Closing Stocks                  2,089,859     2,053,175    Up  1.8%
Crude Palm Oil                 1,178,046     1,133,453    Up  3.9%
Processed Palm Oil              911,813        919,722    Dn  0.9%

(All figures are in metric tons)


  Write to Huileng Tan at huileng.tan@wsj.com

  (END) Dow Jones Newswires
  October 10, 2014 01:23 ET (05:23 GMT)

Indicator Y - 4pm 2168 SAR For 2180 Long

Without taken into consideration of any higher high lower low data, the 60-minute indicator Y will have to cut loss and turn selling once cpo futures price is last traded at 4pm below 2169. It will be the second losing trade for this month after making 17 ticks in first trade and losing 30 ticks in second trade.

MPOB September figures is Output 1.9m, Stock 2.09m and Export 1.6m.

Will Palm Oil Stock Hit Above 3 MMT Level?

Looking back on previous MPOB figures, end month stock of palm oil in Malaysia reached 2.05 million metric tonnes (mmt) due to higher than expected production data while export remained weak before the September October export duty fee was waived.

As production will normally reach its peak around October November, the end month stock will also keep going up sharply if palm oil export is below 1.5mmt.

Now, assume that production unchange in the coming three months at 2.03mmt, export 1.5mmt without heavy local disappearance at about 0.2mmt. Will it be possible to reach 3 million mark!?

	Sept	Oct (e)	Nov (e)	Dec (e)
Production	2.03	2.03	2.03	2.03
Export	1.43	1.5	1.5	1.5
Stock	2.05	2.38	2.71	3.04