November Profit And Loss

It is just to confirm that the monthly accumulated profit and loss will be recorded as mentioned in previous post where the hourly indicator Y will definitely incur an accumulated loss of 130 points at market close today (117-24-56-37-36--16-78 = -130, just refer back all the November posts and readers traders will get the numbers). October did a small accumulated profit of 14 points only.

For those who practice according to the 101indicators On Futures Trading book will have a small accumulated profit of 25 points while experiencing huge loss of 131 points in October due to the multiple losing trades in the hourly short term technical trend trading.

As for the past 11 months, the accumulated profit for the hourly indicator Y has lowered to 866 points in total while the accumulated profit according to the above book has marginally up to 920 points as at market close today. We will again publish such a monthly performance by the end of this year 2014 and wish that all readers traders will pick up something good for their trading year 2015. 

Indicator Y Short 2161 - 4pm Trading View

There will be no stop and reverse buy trade signal at 4pm later today based on the hourly indicator Y trading guides. It had turned selling 2161 at 1130am this morning, with a loss in a single trade of 78 points against its previous long 2239. The 78 points of loss is the biggest losing trade ever recorded in this year.

It is believed that there will probably no stop and reverse buy trade signal at 5pm and 6pm today also if cpo futures price is traded between 2179 and 2150 in the afternoon session. Update will be given once there is a clear trade signal.

The 7 stop and reverse trades in November is also the biggest number in this year. There were only two months in February and March where it was recorded with only ONE stop and reverse trade respectively, while the balance eight months had a range between 2 to 6 stop and reverse trades per month. What will be the number for December?

November 1 Profit Trade 6 Losing Trades

Traders who did not start in the early January and did only start in November will definitely face a disastrous trading experience that we had mentioned earlier - Multiple Losing Trades.

No point talking the early profits as readers traders can read in the learning corner on the right column, we are now discussing the multiple losing trades. Without carried forward on the profit from October that only recorded its profit in early November of 117 points, the 6 losing trades in a row in this month amounted to a total of 247 points of $6175 per contract size. 

Using $10,000 to trade one lot will never be enough if trades only started initiated on 5/11/2014. This is because the losses as at today has reached $6175 excluding trading cost and traders will basically have not enough margin to support the trading further unless put in more money!

Let's say the six losing trades 247 points minus out the profit in one trade 117 points, traders will still face a total loss of 130 points or $3250 per contract size which enough to affect the trading psychology of a good trader. 

Therefore, good capital risk ratio and never over trade is a kind of discipline that technical trend traders need in order to see the real performance year after year. 

From now onward, the short 2161 based on the hourly indicator Y trading guides will probably be brought over to December and we shall see how is the performance again at the end of this year with a full summary for Year 2014 using technical indicator Y on hourly short term technical trend trading. 

Indicator Y Long 2239 - Cut Loss Turn Sell 2161

Yes, the hourly indicator Y long 2239 had cut big losses and turned selling 2161 at 1130am just now. It is definitely a painful trade. It is basically the fear of multiple losing trades that enough to wipe out traders who have bad capital risk ratio as mentioned when we started to published the hourly indicator Y early October. Read the main articles in the learning corner and readers traders will know what is capital risk ratio needed.

The single trade loss was total at 78 points while its multiple losing trades reached as at 1130am just now while ts accumulated loss in November was stood at 130 points. The most scary part was its 6 losing trades in a row hit 247 points or $6175 of losses per contract size!

Indicator Y Long 2239 - 1130am Trade Data

Without taking into consideration on any higher high lower low data, the hourly indicator Y long 2239 will have to cut loss turn sell if cpo futures price is traded 2205 or lower at 1130am later today.

This will be the 6th losing trade in a row once the stop and reverse sell trade signal is triggered at 1130am that we always like to categorize them as multiple losing trades.

No matter what will be the trade today, it is believed that November will be the worst month ever recorded in the past 11 months in this year 2014. What will be the performance in the coming December!

Indicator Y Long 2239 - No SAR At 6pm

The hourly indicator Y long 2239 will have to struggle holding on its long positions for overnight since there is no stop and reverse sell trade signal at 6pm later today.

This month will probably be recorded as a losing month and will be having the biggest in monthly basis. It is basically having an accumulated loss of 52 points for this November month and the long 2239 will have its profit and loss trade being recorded in December if there is no stop and reverse trade signal is triggered tomorrow.

Indicator Y Long 2239 - Another Struggling Day

The hourly indicator Y long 2239 is continuing its journey of struggling trade and finding no stop and reverse sell trade signal for 5pm trade. The 6pm stop and reverse trade signal will depend how the 5pm trade and it is believed that there will be no stop and reverse sell trade signal too if cpo futures price is hovering at current level at 5pm.

The long 2239 will have more confidence once cpo futures price is traded above 2243 to 2249 level.  

Indicator Y Long 2239 - Morning Recap

After turning long 2239 at 6pm yesterday, the hourly indicator Y is now having floating loss again without able to set a stop and reverse sell trade signal based on the hourly indicator Y trading guides which is basically used to avoid the whipsaw market. The only problem is the fear where traders have to tackle with since there is no stop and reverse trade signal!

It is not just the indicator Y, there are many technical trend indicators have such a feature that have far away stop and reverse trade signal after a trade is triggered.

At low 2217, the hourly indicator Y long 2239 will have a floating loss of 22 points or $550 per contact size. Added to the total of 169 points of the last 5 losing trades, it will be 191 points of losses or $4775 per contract size. Fear or not!

We try avoid to talk about the profit so that readers traders can really learn about the multiple losing trades in trading cpo futures especially using technical trend indicators.

Feel Free To Put Your Comments In The Survey Box

Thanks to all readers traders who have given your comments in the survey box. We can understand there is a possible urge to write more in your comments and you are actually allow to put in your comment again after submitting it in your first attempt.

Just feel free to write again and resubmit your comment in second or even third attempt as we will never disclose any of your comments to 3rd party or use the comments on any marketing purposes.

All we wish that you are sincerely to help up others to learn in writing down your comment in the survey box and telling us your views without worrying your grammatical errors so that we know to publish more good articles in CPO Futures blog in coming year 2015. 

Many successful traders in cpo futures have bad English but do well in trading cpo futures since all they need to know is buy or sell to make profits. 

We will take out the survey box on the 5th December 2014, next Friday. The summary of hourly indicator Y will be published in the last week of December 2014.

Indicator Y Long 2239 - The 5th Losing Trade

Yes, it is the 5th losing trade after the hourly indicator Y short 2223 had finally cut loss 16 points and turned long 2239 at 6pm close yerterday.

The hourly indicator Y will hold on the long 2239 from now onward without its stop and reverse sell trade signals in first few hourly trading sessions. Update will be given once there is a clearer sign of the stop and reverse trade signal.

Multiple losing trades in last 5 trades had created accumulated loss of 52 points for this November month while generating total 169 points of losses in the last 5 trades that enough to kill traders who have not set a good capital risk ratio in trading cpo futures using technical trend indicators. Just go to the right column, learning corner, to read more about the indicator Y when we started in October.

Reading back the old posts from October until today will also help readers traders to understand the multiple losing trades that we keep reminding all readers traders trade on technical indicators.

Indicator Y Short 2223 - 6pm Cut Loss Turn Long?

The hourly indicator Y short 2223 will have to cut loss and turn long if cpo futures price is closed 2230 and above at 6pm today. This 6pm stop and reverse buy signal is adjusted much lower now and will probably trigger a buy signal at 6pm.

Just a record, the cpo futures price was lasted traded 2233.

5th Losing Trade in a row...Multiple Losing Trades as always mentioned in previous posts!

Indicator Y Short 2223 - 5pm SAR Near 2249

The hourly indicator Y short 2223 will still hold on its short position at 5pm since the 5pm stop and reverse buy signal will not be triggered yet. Just for record, cpo futures price was last traded at 2232 at 4pm.

If 5pm cpo futures price is traded above 2230, the 6pm stop and reverse buy trade signal will be adjusted much lower than 2249 high based on the hourly indicator Y trading guides.

This will be the 5th losing trade if the stop and reverse trade signal is triggered at 6pm later today.

Indicator Y Short 2223 - SAR Above 2249 High

It is like a kind of psychology and physical training on seeing the cpo futures prices traded between 2227 and 2211 level. Sit tight and wait for the stop and reverse trade signal to be set in clear mode, readers traders will have to be patient enough as the SAR above 2249 high is basically won't be the exact level for cut loss turn long yet.

Therefore, even cpo futures price is traded above 2249 at 4pm sharp, that short 2223 will still have to hold on until 5pm based on the hourly indicator Y trading guides which the 5pm stop and reverse buy signal will be given after 4pm but definitely before 5pm for readers traders to read.

If cpo futures price is between 2234 and 2249 at 4pm later today, the hourly indicator Y will probably adjust its 5pm stop and reverse buy signal below 2249.

Indicator Y Short 2223 - Is Struggling Again!

The cpo futures price is kept trading near the hourly indicator Y short 2223 and this will definitely put more pressure to see where will be the stop and reverse buy signal, but it is still believed that the 1230pm stop and reverse signal is far up high above 2249 and therefore will not be quoted at the moment.

Less than three trading days means the hourly indicator Y will see only another 10 over hourly data range which will probably not able to help putting the good figures for the month of November profit and loss.

Indicator Y Short 2223 - Off The Low 2187

It is definitely a stress month with full of fear and greed in this November which will only have another three more trading days to find out the accumulated profit or loss.

The hourly indicator Y is still holding on the short position at 6pm today which the cpo futures market has basically wiped out 36 points of floating profit against its short 2223 from the low 2187 to the high 2223.

The hourly indicator Y is finding no stop and reverse buy signal at 1130am tomorrow. Update will be more frequent since its stop and reverse trade signals may be adjusted lower after 1230pm tomorrow unless cpo futures price is traded near to the low 2187 again.

Indicator Y Short 2223 - Trend Lower Now

The hourly indicator Y short 2223 is getting comfortable with break even level at low 2187 today from its accumulated losses in November but it is still far away from its 153 points losses in the multiple losing trades. Again, forget about the profit first, it is more important to recover the losses and by how much will this trade generate.

After hitting low 2187, the short 2223 generated 36 points of floating profit which helped reducing the November accumulated loss (36 points too) to break even level. It is still no stop and reverse buy trade signals yet for the afternoon trading sessions at 4pm and 5pm, and even 6pm will probably get no buy signal too.

Readers traders who wish to put your own comments just feel free to write in the above survey or refer to the details in the learning corner - "a comment from reader trader" - in the right column of this blog.

Market Watch - Cheap Oil May Be A Sign Of Bigger Problems

How low can the oil price go? One of my favorite strategists, Russell Napier of (former) CLSA fame, who has now gone independent, used to say that it was hard enough to get the direction right, and nearly impossible to get the target price right. All forecasts are inherently flawed in nature as they try to project into the future, and none of us are clairvoyant.

we know that the cash cost of shale oil is about $60 per barrel...

So, yes, I think the oil price can decline below $60.

Yes, China has had three real-estate downturns in the past seven years, but the latest one is coming at a time of debt-driven boom, which means the consequences this time can be quite different.

...so the decline in the Chinese real-estate market has the potential to create a domino effect there in 2015.

If China does decelerate well below 7% in 2015, an oil price target in the $30 to $40 range is completely realistic. Such predictions may sound dramatic in theory, but in the end, what we are after here in these pages are the investment implications of macro trends. Looking at the world from a top-down perspective is not meaningful if it does not produce actionable ideas. Clearly, I see downside potential for oil, which suggests one should consider gravitating toward investments that make their money on volume and not on price in the oil market.

(Ivan Martchev is an investment specialist with institutional money manager Navellier and Associates.) 

Source: Market Watch.

Indicator Y Short 2223 - Morning Trade View

(Click "A Comment From Reader Trader" to read for more details on the survey.)

The hourly indicator Y short 2223 experienced a range of 2249 to 2200 after its stop and reverse sell trade signal was triggered on 20/11/2014 with 26 points floating losses to 23 points floating profits based on the difference between the short 2223 and high/low.

The hourly indicator Y short 2223 is expected to hold on its short position for the morning trading sessions at 1130am and 1230pm since there is basically no stop and reverse buy signals yet for the two specific time.

Fundamental news - eye on the export figures from palm oil cargo surveyors today.

Indicator Y Short 2223 - 6pm Fear And Greed

Fear - there is still no stop and revere buy signal for the hourly indicator Y short 2223 based on its trading guides at the 5pm and even the 6pm. Again, this is purely given without taking into consideration of higher high lower low that may happen after publishing this post.

Greed - time for a greed after the multiple losing trades that wiped out all the profit in early November in the single trade!!! If readers traders have forgot what is the figures, read back the old posts and you will surely have it.

Unless there is a clear buy signal at 6pm, there will be no further updates today at 5pm on the 6pm stop and reverse trade signal since the cpo futures price is geting lower in favour to the short 2223.

Indicator Y Short 2223 - Fear And Greed Again

(Click "A Comment From Reader Trader" to read for more details on the survey.)

The fear and greed will start over again as the stop and reverse buy trade signal is getting far away and basically will not be available according to the hourly indicator Y trading guides on its short 2223 which had seen high 2249 after sell signal was initiated.

It is believed that the hourly indicator Y short 2223 will definitely hold on for next few trading sessions since the stop and reverse trade signals had been adjusted higher and higher not lower and lower. Fear??

Greed is getting strong now as the cpo futures price is now in favor to the short 2223 !!!

Indicator Y Short 2223 - 1230pm SAR Is Getting Far Away

(Click "A Comment From Reader Trader" to read for more details on the survey.)

Surprising 1230pm stop and reverse buy signal is getting far away from the 1130am stop and reverse buy signal after cpo futures price is traded lower at 1130am.

The hourly indicator Y short 2223 is holding on its short unless cpo futures price is closed above 2272 without taking into consideration of any unforeseen circumstances.

If cpo futures price is kept trading lower, the stop and reverse buy signal may adjust higher instead lower as thought in the earlier post and the 5th losing trade may become a profit trade???

Indicator Y Short 2223 - 1130am Trading View

(Click "A Comment From Reader Trader" to read for more details on the survey.)

The hourly indicator Y short 2223 is still having the same stop and reverse buy trade signal above 2265 at 1130am today, which mean, the short 2223 will have to cut loss turn long once cpo futures price is last traded 2266 and higher at 1130am today.

If cpo futures price is traded near 2250 to 2265 range at 1130am, the hourly indicator Y will probably adjust its 1230pm stop and reverse buy trade signal to a much lower level that will trigger buy signal at 1230pm later today.

If stop and reverse trade signal is triggered today, this will be the 5th losing trade in a row that we always mention as multiple losing trades which we kept mentioning in October that we wanted to discuss about and finally it has happened in this month.

Indicator Y Short 2223 - 6pm SAR Trade Signal

The hourly indicator Y short 2223 is really struggling on its short position since cpo futures prices is kept trading above its selling level.

Based on the hourly indicator Y trading guides, the 6pm stop and reverse buy trade signal will be triggered once cpo futures price is closed above 2265 at 6pm one hour from now today.

This is without taking into any consideration of higher high lower low data which may affect the SAR trade signal and also other unforeseen circumstances that will be very hard to explained in this blog.

Indicator Y Short 2223 - Multiple Losing Trades

The past 4 losing trades that being always categorized as multiple losing trades in this cpo futures blog had accumulated losses 153 points which had been the new record in year 2014, and the amount of losses is even more than the 5 losing trades in April of 140 points.

Just forget about the profit since it is more important to monitor losses especially in this hourly indicator Y short term technical trend trading updates.

If the hourly indicator Y short 2223 cut loss turn long in next few trading sessions, it will match the number of losing trades in April and readers traders finally see the discussion being brain-stormed all this while since October with own eyes. It will definitely be a painful experience in huge losses being hit continuously 5 trades in a row and traders may be wiped out if there is not sufficient money to support the trading.

There will be no stop and reverse buy trade signals at 4pm and probably even at 5pm also. However, there will be a very clear stop and reverse buy trade signal at 6pm if cpo futures price is kept trading near 2250 or even higher at 5pm. We will publish a post to update the stop and reverse buy trade signal once there is a clear signal for that particular trading time.

We Need Your Comments On CPO Futures Blog

Be good or bad comments, we seriously need them for a plan in year 2015 commitment. Please put in your comments or views about CPO Futures blog in the survey box in helping you or other readers traders for better reading trade updates in the coming year 2015. The survey box has been posted today for readers traders to put in their respective comments.

The survey is kept purely for CPO Futures blog own future write-up and will NOT be used for any marketing purposes or disclose to any 3rd parties. Therefore, we wish all readers traders spare some of your precious time to input some comments.

The comments will not be published. Do not worry about your grammatical errors, there are many successful cpo futures traders without good English grammar.

The hourly indicator Y survey did get good participating from readers traders in CPO Futures blog.

• The question: " Do you wish to read the update of indicator Y in year 2014 ? ", and 
• The answer: " 91% Yes ". (It helped shaping the Pac-Man!!!)

From the above result, we wish the "NO" readers traders can also provide some inputs as your inputs may really help the 91% who say "YES" and read the CPO Futures blog.

Many thanks and best regards.

Indicator Y Short 2223 - Low 2223 So Far

The trading range, after the hourly indicator Y short 2223, had basically traded above its stop and reverse sell trade signal and even had gone up to 2238 generating floating loss of 15 points at high.

The hourly indicator Y short 2223 is now struggling with its short and finding no stop and reverse buy trade signal yet in next few trading sessions; which mean, the short 2223 will still struggle to hold on its short position with stop loss signals.

As mentioned in previous post on the good and bad of the indicator Y which can be found in the learning corner, the hourly indicator Y will struggle finding far away SAR trade after being triggered. It had its good point and bad point, good is avoiding whipsaw trades, bad is creating fear.

Pac-Man...

Indicator Y Long 2259 - Cut Loss Turned Selling 2223

4th losing trade and it is definitely a painful experience since the one profit trade of 117 points in the early of November had since been wiped out and turned to be a loss due to the 4 losing trades in a row that we always like to call as multiple losing trades. Refer back all the previous posts in November and readers traders will definitely find the answers.

The hourly indicator Y long 2259 had finally cut 36 points losses and turned selling 2223 at 6pm yesterday, this trade had made November incurred accumulated losses of total 36 points as at the selling 2223 at 6pm yesterday.

Remember the profit 117, losses 24, 56, 37 and 36 in last five stop and reverse trades which you can find out all in the previous posts in November.

Again, we wish to thank readers traders participating in our survey, The survey will be ended this Friday, that is today. If you still not make your choice, please tick YES or NO and click the "submit" button in helping us making the survey a success. Thanks. 

Pac-Man!!!???

Indicator Y Long 2259 - Sell If 6pm Below 2229

It will be the 4th losing trade in a row as what we always categorize them as multiple losing trades for the hourly indicator Y short term technical trend trading if cpo futures price is closed below 2229 at 6pm later today.

Again, without taking into consideration of any higher high or lower low and other unforeseen circumstances, the hourly indicator Y long 2259 will have to cut loss and turn selling once cpo futures price is closed at 2228 or lower at 6pm later today.

As mentioned earlier, the stop and reverse sell trade signal has been adjusted much higher than expected for the 6pm trade.

Indicator Y Long 2259 - Day 2 SAR At 5pm

Hitting low 2217 just now had created more pressure to the long position. However, it will not be enough to change the stop and reverse sell trade signal for 5pm trade, which mean, the hourly indicator Y long 2259 will still struggle with floating losses by holding on the long position and wait for 6pm signal. We will update again after 5pm in order to let readers traders to know one hour ahead to decide what will be the trade at 6pm.

Again, the hourly indicator Y will not cut loss turn sell at 5pm yet even though suffer big floating loss.

Assume that 5pm is lasted below 2222, the hourly indicator Y will cut loss turn sell if cpo futures price is closed below 2222 at 6pm which is adjusted much higher than expected because 5pm stop and reverse sell signal is very low and not available for readers traders yet.

Indicator Y Long 2259 - 4th Losing Trade?

Will it be the 4th losing trade? The hourly indicator Y long 2259 suffered another floating loss at yesterday close 2245 after hitting high 2270. It is also carrying on the painful losing long position at the close 1230pm today as high as 29 points of losses against the low 2220.

The hourly indicator Y long 2259 is still finding no stop and reverse sell trade signal at 4pm later today. However, if cpo futures price is kept trading low at 4pm, we may probably see the stop and reverse sell signal at 5pm. This is without taking into any consideration of unforeseen between 3pm and 5pm trade data collection.

Again, if cpo futures price is traded below 2211 at 4pm later today, watch up the important update that will be posted after 4pm because we may probably update the 5pm trade view and the stop and reverse sell trade signal.

Indicator Y Long 2259 - Day 2 On Trading View

Read back the previous post - "Indicator Y Before The Long 2133" - in the learning corner on the right column, or click HERE, readers traders should be able to find the hourly indicator Y trading performance in year 2014 ended September before we started writing and posting updates on the hourly indicator Y.

If readers traders read in details, do your simple calculation, you should be realize that the hourly indicator Y did well in first 8 months and incurred losses of 34 points in September. As we still prefer to look into the multiple losing trades, you should be able to find also the bright Yellow highlighted figures especially in the month of April where the multiple losing trades incurred 140 points of losses in total 5 losing trades. There was one profit trade 181 points in early April being carried forward from March and therefore helped the indicator Y remained profitable in April month. (We still not see the biggest losing month yet which did happen few years ago.)

Traders' wisdom - " Profit will automatically come to you once you can get through the fear of multiple losing trades. " 

After following updates from October, readers traders should keep reading back all the previous posts in order to pick up some trading ideas and do your own homework in order to start your own data collection, day after day, month after month, year after year, and then only talk about trading success in technical trend trading.

We will post the stop and reverse sell trade signal  one hour in advance once there is a clear signal; Otherwise, the long 2259 will be remained based on the hourly indicator Y trading guides.

Indicator Y Long 2259 - 1 Profit 3 Losing Trades

Firstly, we wish to thank readers traders participating in our survey, please pick your choice by clicking YES or NO for those who still hesitate, in making the survey a success. The survey will be ended this Friday.

The long 2259 based on the hourly indicator Y trading guides will hardly find its stop and reverse sell trade signals in next few trading sessions. Readers traders followed the updates since October should know it better.

The multiple losing trades had finally wipe out all the 117 points profit that the hourly indicator Y sold in the early of November. Coincidentally, the losing trades 24, 56 and 37 points in the last 3 trades  had the same figures of the 117 points in total 3 trades against the profit in 1 trade! Theoretically, they are break even, they are however not in real trading environment since there is a cost in trading and slippage of prices in rollover.    

Indicator Y Long 2259 - It Is The 3rd Losing Trade

After struggling for the last few trading sessions, the hourly indicator Y short 2222 finally cut loss 30 over points and turned long 2259 at 1130am just now which was traded much higher than the 1130am stop and reverse buy trade signal 2229 given in previous post according to the hourly indicator Y trading guides on short term technical trend trading.

We will start looking on the long 2259 from now onward as this is the 4th stop and reverse trade of this month. 1 profit and 3 losing trades.

Accumulated losses in 3 trades reached over 100 points and November's accumulated profits had substantially turned to be " losses " in the 4 stop and reverse trades.

Read back all the previous posts as this write-up is urgently published to mention the stop and reverse trade signal at 1130am and have no time to give the full details on time.

Indicator Y Short 2222 - Cut Loss Turn Long 1130am!

Without taking into any consideration of any unforeseen circumstances like higher high lower low, the hourly indicator Y short 2222 will have to cut loss and turn long if cpo futures price is lasted at 1130am above 2229. The 3rd active contract month was closed 2251 yesterday which is above 20 points higher than the 1130am stop and reverse buy trade signal.

As mentioned in previous post, the stop and reverse trade signal will be adjusted much lower than expected if cpo futures price was closed higher yesterday and readers traders therefore should realize now that the stop and reverse trade signal that not being given yesterday will suddenly have such a low stop and reverse trade signal.

Let's wait and see what will be the last traded price at 1130am today. Update will be available once the 1130am data is collected. At any price above 2229, the hourly indicator Y will face another losing trade - three losing trades in a row as specifically categorized as multiple losing trades in this CPO Futures blog.

El Nino Is Rated Alert From Watch

Australia raised an El Nino warning after the Pacific Ocean showed renewed signs of the pattern that can bring drought to parts of Asia and heavier-than-usual rain to South America.

Climate models suggest current conditions will persist or strengthen, prompting the status to be elevated from watch to alert, the Bureau of Meteorology said on its website today.

The alert indicates at least a 70 percent chance of El Nino, it said...     “Above-average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have warmed further in the past fortnight, while the Southern Oscillation Index has generally been in excess of El Nino thresholds for the past three months,” the Australian bureau said.

“International climate models expect the warm tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures to persist, with most models predicting values will remain near or beyond El Nino thresholds for the next two to three months.” ...

The last El Nino was from 2009 to 2010, and the Pacific has either been in its cooler state, called La Nina, or neutral since then. The weather bureau previously issued an El Nino alert on May 6, predicting an event may develop as early as July. That was downgraded to watch on July 29.

Not all indicators have shifted toward El Nino, with tropical cloudiness near the Date Line and trade wind strength close to average, suggesting the atmosphere is still not firmly linked with the warmer ocean, the bureau said today.

Source: Bloomberg News

Indicator Y Short 2222 - 6pm Trade View

The hourly indicator Y short 2222 will be remained at 6pm close later today since there will be no stop and reverse buy trade signal at 6pm based on the hourly indicator Y trading guides.

The closing price at 6pm today will definitely have big impact on the hourly indicator Y trading strategy because the stop and reverse buy trade signal will have a very high probability chance being triggered at 1130am tomorrow.

The stop and reverse buy trade signal will definitely be adjusted much lower than expected for 1130am trade view tomorrow unless cpo futures price is closed low today.

Indicator Y Short 2222 - 5pm Trade View

The hourly indicator Y short 2222 is now facing floating loss of 27 points against the high 2249 that was traded before 4pm just now. It will be a struggling trade and 3rd losing trades in a row if the next few trading sessions keep trading above this level.

The hourly indicator Y short 2222 will still be remained with no stop and reverse buy trade signal yet at 5pm. However, if the 5pm trade above 2260, we may probably get a very clear signal for 6pm stop and reverse buy trade signal today.

We will update again in next hour at around 5pm to see where will it be the stop and reverse trade signal for the hourly indicator Y short 2222 for the 6pm trade decision.

Indicator Y Short 2222 - 3rd Losing Trade?

This is the second test of 2234 after the hourly indicator Y turned selling 2222. The cpo futures price only had its low 2199 and 2206 on second attempt which means the short 2222 only theoretically has 23 points of floating profit and 12 points of floating losses in a very tight range.

Afternoon trading sessions will have more impact on the hourly indicator Y as its stop and reverse buy trade signals will be adjusted lower much faster than thought if cpo futures price can go above 2240 to 2250 level. This will be the hourly indicator Y experiencing 3rd losing trade.

In record, there was 5 losing trades and 4 losing trades in a row for this year which was regarded as multiple losing trades in this CPO Futures blog write-ups. Therefore, we think readers traders will finally see what we meant in the early write-up in October that wishing readers traders to really see the multiple losing trades. Let's wait and see the short 2222 will be a losing trade or not!

Indicator Y Short 2222 - Day 3 Floating Losses

After seeing high 2234 yesterday, the hourly indicator Y short 2222 is still suffering a floating loss even though it is less as compared to previous trade. Will it be another losing trade when its stop and reverse buy signal is triggered in next future!?

The hourly indicator Y is having far away stop and reveres buy signal and can be saying that there is no stop and reverse buy trade signal yet in the morning trading sessions today. Update will be available once there is a clear trade signal.

It is basically still a profit for the month of November but had been so much lesser after facing the last 2 losing trades. Profit 117, Loss 24 and 56, and therefore it is still 37 points of accumulated profit in this month. (Refer back previous posts for the stop and reverse trades and readers traders will be able to find the figures. )  

Indicator Y Short 2222 - Seeing High 2230

After selling 2222, the hourly indicator Y short 2222 is now struggling again with cpo futures price is traded high 2230 today and only reached low 2199 low on last Friday.

There is still no sign of stop and reverse buy signal yet for 5pm and 6pm today, and therefore the short 2222 will be facing losses even though the roller price is good.

Remember, the losses in the past two trades at 80 points will probably have more to come! Multiple losing trades! It is good to see how much the losses will be if it really happen! (no point talking profit if traders cannot stand the losses, this was the earlier discussion on the hourly indicator Y when it was started in October and will be ended in December.)

Indicator Y Short 2222 - Rollover At Premium

Even though the rollover price is in favor to the short 2222 using the hourly indicator Y trading guides, the short 2222 will be still used as the entry point for the write-up.

Knowing that some traders will switch the short to a new 3rd active contract month but the theoretical stop and reverse trade signal will not be changed in order to track down easily on all the previous write-ups related to the short 2222. Therefore, we will not make further explanation.

The hourly indicator Y will not update its stop and reverse trade signals in next few sessions unless there is a clear signal.

Indicator Y Short 2222 - Day 2 First Target

After trading in the range between 2225 and 2199 (this was happened on cpo futures price after the short 2222), the hourly indicator Y will still be holding on the short 2222 in Day 2 based on the hourly indicator Y trading guides especially in the morning trading sessions today.

The first target may be set at 2170 which is just a traders' own risk reward appetites without following the hourly indicator Y trading guides.

There will be no stop and reverse buy trade signals yet in the morning trading sessions 1130am and 1230pm, even in the afternoon trading sessions 4pm, 5pm and 6pm; this is based on the hourly indicator Y trading guides without taking into consideration any unforeseen circumstances like higher high lower low.

However, update will be available about one hour in advance once there is a clear stop and reverse trade signal based on the hourly indicator Y trading guides.

Indicator Y Short 2222 - Day 1 Recap

After turning sell 2222 at 1130am, the hourly indicator Y short 2222 will always find no stop and reverse trade signals or will not be available in the first few trading sessions as the same in all the previous posts being mentioned. Remember, the last 2 trades had a total loss of 80 points or RM2,000 per contract size. It is not important to mention the profit yet.

Good is avoiding whipsaw market while bad is trader's fear will be tremendous!

Again, just to repeat, it is believed that the hourly indicator Y short 2222 will probably not be able to find the stop and reverse buy trade signals at 4pm, 5pm and even 6pm today. It is good to see the fear and greed over and over again from the new short 2222.

Indicator Y Long 2278 - The Biggest Losing Sell 2222 At 1130am

It may not be the biggest losing trade of the year yet, but it is enough to stress technical trend traders in holding such a losing trade long 2278 according to the hourly indicator Y trading guides by cutting loss and turning sell at 1130am just now.

The hourly indicator Y had finally turned selling at 1130am at 2222, it will hold on the short 2220 from now on after losing 56 points. The previous losing trade in a single trade before the hourly indicator Y started updating in this blog was 58 points.

After adding the last losing trade of 24 points, the hourly indicator Y accumulated 80 points of losses in total in just 2 trades even though November is still having a profit of  37 points!

Indicator Y Long 2278 - Day 3 Short Life!

The hourly indicator Y long 2278 will have to cut loss and turn selling if cpo futures price is traded 2230 or lower at 1130am later today. This is without taking into consideration of any higher high or lower low trade data.

Will it be the biggest losing trade of the year 2014 as mentioned in previous post?

When a trade is holding in a short period in technical trend trading, it will always be in a losing end - short life! The long 2278 that last only 3 days will probably cut loss turn sell today and will be a the good example and lesson to learn for novice technical trend trader.

Based on previous posts, a simple assumption of crude oil and palm oil price comparison, crude oil now near 74, palm oil will be heading 2119!? The cpo futures price last closing price was 2232 but was settled at 2231, and the difference is more than 110 points! Where will be the cpo futures price in near future? If based on the spot month price 2191 yesterday, it will be not far away, but if based on 3rd active month, there is another 2% different between 2232 and 2191!

Indicator Y Long 2278 - 6pm Trade Signal 2200!

If the hourly indicator Y long 2278 is triggered with a stop and reverse sell trade at 6pm, it will definitely the biggest losing trade of the year which is over 60 points of losses in single trade!

If cpo futures price is closed below 2200 at 6pm today, the hourly indicator Y long 2278 will have to cut loss and turn selling at 6pm. Looking at the stop and reverse sell trading price, the loss of the trade will be more than 70 points!

Indicator Y Long 2278 - 5pm No SAR Yet

No doubt the hourly indicator Y long 2278 is getting a lot of pressure now due to its floating loss that over 40 points, there is still no stop and reverse sell trade signal at 5pm!

Update will be more frequent now in every hour as we wish to see what will be the next stop and reverse trade signal.

Indicator Y Long 2278 - If CPO Futures Below 2220

It will probably be the biggest losing trade in this year for the hourly indicator Y in single trade if cpo futures price is traded below 2220 in next few trading sessions that may trigger the stop and reverse sell signal!

The hourly indicator Y did experience a single bad trade near to 60 points of losses and more than 130 points of multiple losing trade in a row for the past ten months in year 2014.

As mentioned in previous post, the hourly indicator Y had made a loss of 24 points when it turned long 2278. If the hourly indicator Y long 2278 is a losing trade when the stop and reverse sell signal is triggered, it will be the second losing trade.

It is believed that there will be no stop and reverse sell trade signal at 4pm later today even though the cpo futures price was closed 2238 down 21 points at 1230pm just now. The hourly indicator Y long 2278 is now losing 40 points!

Indicator Y Long 2278 - Hitting Low 2232

Feel the heat!? The hourly indicator Y long 2278 is facing a floating loss of 46 points - or, over RM1,000 per contract - seeing cpo futures price is traded low 2232 while still holding on the long position with no cut loss point.

How long the long 2278 will be held on until the next stop and reverse sell trade signal is triggered? The long 2278 is the second trade in November after selling 2254 at 4pm on 5/11/2014 was considered as the first trade in November. The short 2254 was basically held on for 6 days before buying 2278.

It will be a painful month in November if multiple losing trades strike!

Indicator Y Long 2278 - Day 2 Continue To Struggle

It is a painful day for the hourly indicator Y long 2278 since it will continue to struggle with its long 2278 finding no stop and reverse sell trade signal in the morning trading sessions.

The long 2278 saw the cpo futures price up high 2280 with just 2 points of floating profit before flushing down to low 2257 yesterday. The drop of soybean oil futures overnight will definitely give more pressure for the long 2278 using the hourly indicator Y trading guides finding no cut loss points yet at 1130am and 1230pm today.

Feel the "psychological fear" in following such a short term technical trend indicator without a cut loss point?

Indicator Y Long 2278 - Day 1 Recap

After cutting losses of 24 points at 2278 against the short 2254 at 1130am this morning, the hourly indicator Y long 2278 is mostly traded below 2278 today. It did go up to 2280 high and down to 2264 low.

The hourly indicator Y long 2278 will definitely hold on its long for overnight since it will not do a stop and reverse sell trade at 6pm close later today.
 

Indicator Y Long 2278 - The Fear And Greed Again

If you had followed the write-ups in this blog since October, you would have realized the weaknesses on the hourly indicator Y! The fear is the stop and reverse trade signal that far away from the entry/exit price in technical trend trading strategy while the greed is probably the hourly indicator did have a good run for 200 points which is RM5,000 per contract of floating profit before giving its substantial floating profits away! 

Read back the basic articles in the learning corner on the right column in this blog.

The long 2278 is believed to be holding on until the market close today based on the hourly indicator Y trading guides without taking into consideration any unforeseen circumstances.

Indicator Y - Long 2278 At 1130am

It is a painful trade today on the short 2254 which the hourly indicator Y had finally done its stop and reverse trade at 1130am just now based on the hourly indicator Y trading guides.

The hourly indicator Y short 2254 had cut 24 points loss and turned long 2278 at 1130am. The accumulated profit of 117 for November month had reduced to 93 due to the losing trade.

The long 2278 will be the main topic for the next few posts in discussion on short term technical trend trading until there is a stop and reverse sell trade signal.

Indicator Y Short 2254 Cut Loss Turn Long At 1130am

It is believed that after the past two profit trades ( 35 and 117 points of profit trades as published in previous posts ) will finally meet a losing trade today. The hourly indicator Y short 2254 will probably do a stop and reverse buy trade at 1130am today, that is, if cpo futures price is traded above 2229 at 1130am, the hourly indicator Y will cut its short 2254 position and turn long.

Yes, its 1130am SAR is 2230 or higher without taking into consideration on higher high or lower low that possible to happen during the first one hour before the 1130am trade signal, or other unforeseen circumstances.

The stop and reverse buy trade signal will be available once the 1130am trade signal is confirmed. If it is below 2254, then it is a taking profit turn long trade; if it is above 2254, it will be a cutting loss turn long trade.

Indicator Y Short 2254 - SAR Is Getting Near 2275

The stop and reverse buy trade signal is still much above the short 2254 based on the hourly indicator Y trading guides which the trade will definitely incur losses if cpo futures price is closed high at 6pm today.

The 6pm trade will be holding on the short 2254 as it is believed that the SAR will not be triggered at 6pm today, even reaching 2270s level. However, if cpo futures price is closed high today, the SAR will be adjusted much lower and may trigger buy signal at 1130am tomorrow. Update on the SAR will be given before market is opened at 1030am tomorrow.

Indicator Y Short 2254 - Crude Oil 76.60 Palm Oil 2193?

Crude Oil future is currently traded low 76.60 (when this post is written) and cpo futures price is 2238 which is out of the target range using the previous assumption where crude oil 77 palm oil 2204, it should be 2193 since crude oil below 77 reaching low 76.60!

The hourly indicator Y is still holding on its short 2254 with stop and reverse buy signal at 5pm above 2275 high. It will be adjusted even lower if 5pm cpo futures price is traded higher.

Indicator Y Short 2254 - Stop Loss 2250

The cpo futures price hit 2250 high this morning and if it is traded again, some short positions may be covered to take profit for traders who short 2254 and fear to lose more. This is without following the hourly indicator Y trading guides. It may just be traders' own fear and greed!

The hourly indicator Y will still hold on its short 2254 at 4pm sessions since it is believed that the stop and reverse buy trade signal will not be triggered at 4pm that about 50 points from the high 2250. However, it will probably be adjusted much lower if the cpo futures price is kept trading high above 2240.

The cpo futures price saw its high 2275 and low 2193 after the hourly indicator Y turned short 2254. Where will be the next stop and reverse buy trade signal?

Indicator Y Short 2254 - 1230pm SAR Is Above 2254

The hourly indicator Y short 2254 will still be holding on at 1230pm close later today as the stop and reverse buy signal is still much above 2254 even though it had been adjusted lower.

It will be a losing trade if cpo futures price is really traded above the short 2254 while the stop and reverse buy signal is still no where near to 2254 short level. Be prepared to face the losing trade!?

Remember, majority technical trend indicators never makes profit on every trade but they do face many losing trades in a row that we call multiple losing trades in this futures blog.

Indicator Y Short 2254 - Day 5 Morning Sessions

If 1130am cpo futures price is traded above 2241 which was the yesterday high, it will be adding pressure on the hourly indicator Y since the stop and reverse buy trade signal is getting lower now even though it is still above the short 2254.

There will be no stop and reverse buy trade signal at 1130pm based on the hourly indicator Y trading guides; thus, it is still holding on short 2254. If there is a clear stop and reverse buy trade signal at 1230pm which is below the short 2254, update will be available in advance.

Indicator Y Short 2254 - Crude Oil 79 Palm Oil 2261

If the crude oil above 79, there will be some pressure on the hourly indicator Y short 2254 because the target on cpo futures price may go back to 2261 based on previous assumption between crude oil and palm oil or click the link HERE to read the article.

The hourly indicator Y is still having high stop and reverse buy trade signal but if the cpo futures price is really trade to that target 2261 level, the trade signal will be adjusted lower in very near future and may face the losses since it will be above short 2254.

Indicator Y Short 2254 - MPOB Figures And Afternoon Trade

MPOB had released the official October supply and demand figures:

• Output Palm Oil - 1893k Tons vs the previous 1897k Tons 
• End Month Stock -  2166k Tons vs the previous 2090k Tons
• Export - 1605k Tons vs the previous 1628k Tons.

Intertek gave the first 10-day October export at  401k Tons vs 396k Tons in September. We will only know the SGS figures for first 10-day October export later today.

The hourly indicator Y will remain its short for next few trading sessions since it is still far up high the stop and reverse buy trade signals. Update will be available once there is clear signal.

 

Indicator Y Short 2254 - Day 4 Morning Sessions

It is believed that the hourly indicator Y short 2254 will hold on its short positions on Day 4 morning trading sessions after hitting first target 2204 when cpo futures price was traded low 2193 on last Friday. Will it hit the 101 points second target 2153 after 1230pm on some important fundamental news which is expected to be bearish based on news excerpts recorded in previous post? The 101 points target is also not following the hourly indicator Y trading guides, it is just traders' own discretion.

Today will see some fundamental data being released, they are MPOB official supply and demand figures for the October month, Intertek and SGS first 10-day export figures.

Indicator Y Short 2254 - Day 3 And 6pm Trade

Target cpo futures price 2205 hit even though crude oil never reach 77. The selling with 2000 lots queuing near 2200 can probably stop buyers from support 2200 level if the sellers' size is genuine.

MPOB will release the official palm oil supply and demand figures on Monday and it may be a bearish figures since the sell down has volume today!

The hourly indicator Y short 2254 will have to hold to Day 4 since it is believed that the stop and reverse buy trade signal will not be triggered at 6pm close today.

Indicator Y Short 2254 - Day 3 Afternoon Sessions

The hourly indicator Y short 2254 on cpo futures will probably remain its short positions with the same first target 2205. It will have no stop and reverse buy trade signals for 4pm, 5pm and even 6pm trades.

The first target 2205 is just an aim without following the hourly indicator Y trading guides. It is just that if cpo futures prices is traded at first target, the selling pressure will get more momentum to push lower!

The Buzz Page In CPO Futures Blog

Readers traders actually can see some useful information in the Buzz page in this cpo futures blog. Just click on the "Buzz" page above and readers traders can see the following websites in one page:

• Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Price Quotes
• MPOB Palm Oil Price Quotes
• CBOT Soybean Oil Price Quotes

Or click this link - http://cpofutures.blogspot.com/p/blog-page.html

Indicator Y Short 2254 - Day 3

The crude palm oil futures had a range of 58 points from the high 2275 to low 2217 yesterday that made the short 2254 from a floating loss of 21 points to floating profit 37 points based on the short term technical trend trading using the hourly indicator Y trading guides.

There is still no sign of stop and reverse buy trade signals on Day 3 today's morning sessions and it is very important to see cpo futures prices trading below 2200 in order to encourage more selling pressure that break below the first target line as mentioned in previous post.

News excerpts:
* Survey from Bloomberg had quoted October end month stock increasing to 2.14 millions tons while production and export fell.
* Indonesia palm oil FFB yield 3.77 tons/ha in year 2013, 5.01 tons/ha in year 2025 through replanting activities, using more advanced planting materials, tissue culture which are higher yielding, resistant to disease according to Daud Dharsono, president director of PT Sinar Mas Agro Resources and Technology, or PT SMART.

Crude Oil 77 Palm Oil 2205

Read back the previous post with titled: "Where Is CPO Futures Price When Crude Oil At 80", if readers traders wish to see cpo futures price is traded below 2200, the crude oil futures in NYMEX may have to go to 77 level.

The hourly indicator Y short 2254 has seen the cpo futures prices went up to high 2275 today before heading down to low 2220. To hit a small target. the cpo futures price may have to sell down to 2204. If crude oil futures can go down from current 78 levels to 77, the first 50 points 2204 profit target should be able to reach!

40 Trading Days To Go

This year cpo futures trading day on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives will have about another 40 trading days left in record, readers traders should take note that the hourly indicator Y trading guides will basically appear for another 40 trading days as written in previous post (read the post at the learning corner on the right column).

No doubt the hourly indicator Y did its best for the past 10 months with accumulated profit 1113 points as at the last short 2254 and I will not know how will be the total profit or loss when the 40 trading days ends on 31st December 2014!

Based on the stop and reverse trades in October, we can assume that there will only 10 more stop and reverse trades in November and December if there is no multiple losing trades happened in this coming 40 trading days. If it does happen, the stop and reverse trades will go more than 10 trades and be ready to face losses that will eat in the 1113 points accumulated profits for the past 10 months!

Indicator Y Short 2254 - Day 2 High 2275

The hourly indicator Y short 2254 is facing 21 points of floating loss at high 2275. It is still no sign of any stop and reverse buy signal and it is therefore believed that the short 2254 will hold on for more longer time.

At any particular hourly trading session without update being posted will mean that there is no stop and reverse buy trade signal against the short 2254 based on the hourly indicator Y trading guides.  

Indicator Y Short 2254 - Day 2

After turning sell 2254 yesterday, the hourly indicator Y started with a profit of 117 points against its previous long 2137 that being carried forward from October to November. (Read back previous posts where accumulated profit in October only 14 points and the long 2137 profit was not recorded.).

It is believed that there will be no stop and reverse buy signal in Day 2 today judging on the pattern of the hourly indicator Y trading strategy. This can be meant that the hourly indicator Y will have "unlimited losses" if cpo futures prices is traded up high against its short 2254!

Updates will be available one hour ahead if there is a possibility of stop and reverse buy trade signal being triggered; otherwise, remain the short 2254 no matter how high the cpo futures price is!

Indicator Y - Short 2254 At 4pm

It is a painful day for the long 2137 giving up 91 points of potential profit from the top 2345 by turning sell at 4pm just now at 2254 according to the hourly indicator Y trading guides. It is not so important to discuss the profit here since the main focus is still on the psychology in letting go huge profit.

From now on, it is good to see how is the short 2254 performing in this stop and reverse trade at 4pm.

Remember, it is good that readers traders can realize now on the possibility of giving up huge floating profit that being written in earlier posts for a technical trend trading that strictly follow the stop and reverse trade signals like what is happening to the hourly indicator Y.

There is no one trading system 100% perfect in technical trend trading using technical trend indicators. Bad indicators can be good and good indicators can be bad! Be alert when the multiple losing trades strike you!

Indicator Y - 4pm Is A Sell For Long 2137

I will not know what will be the cpo futures price at 4pm later today, but it is for sure that the hourly indicator Y will have to do a stop and reverse sell trade once 4pm today is traded below 2308 which is yesterday settlement price.

The long 2137 based on the hourly indicator Y trading guides will take much lesser profit and we shall see what is the profit after 4pm later today.

Unless cpo futures price can go above 2308 at 4pm today, it will be a sell day for the hourly indicator Y.

If crude oil 77, palm oil 2205!? (check previous few posts)...Possible?

101indicators On Futures Trading - 1000 Points

This is for those who purchased the 101indicators On Futures Trading book, short term technical trend trading based on the book on cpo futures hourly trading had generated 1000 points of gross profits since the beginning of this year as at 1130am on 05/11/2014 today. It should be more than enough to cover the purchase price and the cost of delivery!

However, remember the multiple losing trades that happened last month? 198 points of losses in 8 trades could kill any good trader who did over trade!

Even though the losses was 131 points at the end of last month as compared to 198 points when the 8 losing trades hit traders, the psychological trading momentum of a trader would still be affected if the trader did not have a good discipline on capital risk ratio management.

"It is better to read a book 100 times than read 100 books!" - trader's wisdom.  

Indicator Y - Long 2137 SAR At 1230pm

(Too bad...) The hourly indicator Y will definitely hold on its long 2137 at 1230pm today even though it is giving up a lot of its floating profit from the top 2345. What will be the level on cpo futures price when the stop and reverse sell trade signal is triggered? It will be very clear after 1230pm close where 4pm will probably have the trade signal.

Read back previous posts, I did mention on the huge difference of stop and reverse trade signals far away from the top or bottom, this is a kind of psychology that traders always encounter besides the multiple losing trades. Remember, fear and greed can be your enemy and friend!

Indicator Y - Long 2137 Day 11 At 1130am

Overnight soybean oil futures tumbled will probably make traders more nervous at opening. The hourly indicator Y will have a very high chance to do stop and reverse sell trade today especially after 1130am today.

It is believed that the long 2137 will still hold on at 1130am since the stop and reverse sell signal will not be triggered at 1130am based on the hourly indicator Y trading guides.

1230pm trade signal will be given after 1130am today and readers traders will have a chance to know whether there is a sell at 1230pm in advance.

For example, if 1130am write-up put the 1230pm SAR 2288 or lower, readers traders should be able to know that there will be a sell if cpo futures price is traded 2270 level in last few seconds before 1230pm, the hourly indicator Y will have to take profit and turn sell and hold on the short from that onward. This is because 2270 level is below the SAR 2288 that will trigger sell at 1230pm.

Indicator Y - Long 2137 Stop Loss 2270

After hitting 2298 stop loss due to fear factor, traders may have another level to clear all long position at 2270 level as once there is 2270 at much lower at any session close, it may affect hourly indicator Y and keep adjusting higher in next trading session.

There is still no stop and reverse sell trade signal at 6pm today based on the hourly indicator Y trading guides. It is also not a stop and reverse sell at 2270 which is just a protective stop against the long 2137 because it is believed that once cpo futures price is traded at that level, the hourly indicator Y will turn sell in a very near future.

Where Is CPO Futures Price When Crude Oil At 80

It is just a simple mathematical calculation in comparing cpo futures prices against crude oil prices.

Based on historical data, assume that the crude oil and cpo futures in July 2008 was 124 and 3550 respectively...

If crude oil price at 80, cpo futures price will be 2290.

If crude oil price is 79, cpo futures price is 2261.
If crude oil price is 78, cpo futures price is 2233.
If crude oil price is 77, cpo futures price is 2205.
If crude oil price is 76, cpo futures price is 2175.
If crude oil price is 75, cpo futures price is 2147.

It is just based on simple assumption on the above two oils, without taking consideration of other factors like currency, supply and demand.

Indicator Y - Long 2137 Feels The Pressure

2345 may be really the top that the hourly indicator Y long 2137 had gone so far. The stop and reverse sell signal will probably be adjusted much faster from today onward and we will keep monitoring closely and more updates in coming sessions.

For 4pm, it may not turn sell yet even though cpo futures price may have going down lower than expected. 4pm last traded price can affect 5pm stop and reverse sell signal. From 2234 to 2288 will probably be the stop and reverse sell signal in next few trading sessions if cpo futures price can really tumble down.

If happen, readers traders should have realise what had been discussed in previous posts on the stop and reverse trade signal that give up a lot of floating profit. For example, say the hourly indicator Y only turn sell at low end at 2245, it is 100 points from the high 2345, can you feel the pain!

Indicator Y - Long 2137 1230pm Stop Loss 2298

2298 can be a stop order to protect some good profit of the long 2137 if traders in fear of losing more even though it is not in the hourly indicator Y trading guides. The stop loss price 2298 is for the period of 1130am to 1230pm trading session and may be keep changing after 1230pm.

If cpo futures price is trade below 2300 at 1230pm, the hourly indicator Y will probably have its stop and reverse sell trade signal being adjusted much higher in near future. It is definitely higher than the long 2137 now but still lower than the current price.

Indicator Y - Long 2137 Day 10 Top 2345

At high 2345, the hourly indicator Y long 2137 had reached 208 points of floating profit even though there is no sign of stop and reverse sell trade signal. With overnight soybean oil futures down 2%, it is the best time to see how low will the cpo futures prices go today from the high 2345 before the stop and reverse sell signal is triggered.

Traders who follow strictly on the hourly indicator Y will have to stand the pain when cpo futures price hit low far away from the high 2345 which did generate a very good floating profit at one time for the long 2137. For example, from the high 2345, how will you feel if cpo futures prices go to the low at 2295, 2245 or even lower before the hourly indicator Y turn sell, say, 2245, 2295 or even higher! In short, the volatility that stress you!

Fear and greed can really train you to be a discipline trader if you have successfully completed your "losing game". What you see now is a profit, you need to see where you stand when multiple losing trades strike you!

Indicator Y - Long 2137 No SAR At 6pm

This is just an update for readers traders who fear on 6pm close's stop and reverse trade signal being triggered even though market trading time is presently at before 5pm still.

Crude palm oil futures 3rd active month reached high 2340 which is 203 points from the long 2137 now based on the hourly indicator Y trading guides. There will be no stop and reverse sell trade signal at 6pm still since the cpo futures price is remained near to the high level.

Yes, it is 100% sure that no stop and reverse sell trade signal at 6pm today.

Indicator Y - Long 2137 Day 9 High 2329

The hourly indicator Y long 2137 is having its good profit riding on the uptrend reaching high 2329 this morning into the Day 9 since 21/10/2014. It is believed that the long 2137 will stay on later today in the afternoon trading sessions at 4pm, 5pm and even 6pm without taking into consideration of new higher high and lower low.

At close 2324 just now, the floating profit is now stood at 187 points or RM4,675.00 per contract size basis. It is just 8 points short from its 200 points profit level at 2337. The profit taking targets will is not following the hourly indicator Y trading guides, they are just belong to traders' own greed and fear. If greed overcome fear, traders will earn more now, but traders have fear more than greed may have taking some profit at much lower level as stated in previous posts.

Indicator Y - November Starts With 169 Points Profit

Readers traders who follow the hourly indicator Y trading guides should know that the long 2137 on 21/10/2014 had been carried forward to this November month that affected the accumulated profits for October month. (Read back previous post if no sure)

The November will start with 169 points of "floating profit" due to the long 2137 that is still held on until today based on the hourly indicator Y trading guides. It is believed that there will no stop and reverse sell trade signals for 1130am and 1230pm today even though the profit is good for the long 2137. (It is very common that the stop and reverse trade signal is far away from good floating profit when it happens! Readers traders will understand when there is a stop and reverse sell trade signal being triggered in next trade which will be published in due course.)

Will it reach 2337 or 200 points of profit after cpo futures price was closed above 2300?