Wednesday, 4 March 2015

Indicator Y L2277 s1816.5 - FKLI Short 1816.5 Yesterday

FKLI index futures long 1801 (since 13/2) had finally hit the stop and reverse sell trade signal at 515pm close yesterday at 1816.5 according to the short term technical trend indicator Y trading guides which we did give readers traders an early indication before the close in the previous post.

The short 1816.5 will remain until the next stop and reverse buy trade signal is triggered which we believe that there will be no clear signal in next few trading sessions since it was just turning sell yesterday.

FCPO long 2277 reached high 2382, how high will cpo futures price go with such an important day today that we will see those VVIPs having the speeches in Palm Oil Conference today. Go to the website HERE to see the details when will Thomas Mielke, James Fry and Dorab Mistry give their outlook on cpo futures.  

Tuesday, 3 March 2015

Indicator Y L2277 L1801.0 - Sell If FKLI Is Closed below 1817

Fighting on the long 1801 for the past few trading sessions, the indicator Y long 1801 on FKLI may have to do a stop and reverse sell trade once the index futures is closed 1816.5 or lower at 515pm today. It had been a struggling trade for long position which kept trading near the stop and reverse sell trade signals since yesterday.

FCPO long 2277 will stay on for today.

Indicator Y L2277 L1801.0 - The Long 1801 Is Still Fighting

The long 1801 using the short term technical trend indicator Y trading guides is still fighting very hard to hold on after almost hitting the stop and reverse sell trade signals in last few trading sessions.

1015am stop and reverse sell trade signal is 1817 or lower without taking into consideration on any unforeseen circumstances. Therefore, the indicator Y will technically turn sell once the index futures is last traded 1817 or lower at 1015am today. (we may have to keep posting the latest stop and reverse trade signal in advance if the index futures is near the trade signal! Such high frequency in updating/posting trade signal may confuse readers traders, therefore, we wish readers traders can understand why we try posting a write-up only when the trade signal is triggered!)

CPO Futures price reached high 2379 yesterday after the indicator Y turned long 2277. It is still finding no stop and reverse sell trade signal yet; therefore, hold on the long 2277 while waiting for a clear signal. Profit taking targets will never be available here and they will be up to traders own discretion since we are mainly focusing on the stop and reverse trade signals.

Monday, 2 March 2015

Indicator Y L2277 L1801.0 - Sell If Close 1817

FCPO is finding no stop and reverse sell trade signal today or even tomorrow. Therefore, the long 2277 will be holding on until further notice.

FKLI long 1801 will probably do it stop and reverse sell trade at close today, it will technically turn sell once the index futures is closed 1817 or lower at 515pm today based on the short term technical trend indicator Y trading guides.

Indicator Y L2277 L1801.0 - FKLI Sell If 4pm 1813

No doubt the settlement was in favour to the long 1801 at 1823.5 on last Friday, we are now looking at the 4pm stop and reverse sell trade signal for the short term technical trend indicator Y which was theoretically still holding the long 1801.

Sell if the FKLI index futures is traded 1813 or lower at 4pm today.

FCPO long 2277 using indicator Y had good floating profits in last 2 trading sessions, reaching high 2362. However, there is still no clear trade signal yet on the stop and reverse sell trade signal. Palm Oil Conference in Kuala Lumpur may add more sentiments to the futures market movement.

Friday, 27 February 2015

Indicator Y - Update Your February Monthly Accumulated Profit And Loss

For January, FCPO (+131-9+55-26-43 = +108); FKLI (+33+12+65 = +110).
For February, FCPO (+83+33-31-57-22 = +6); FKLI (-13-14-9 = -35).

The above figures is shown as per contract size basis.

Readers traders should be able to see the previous stop and reverse trade signals, track down and calculate the profit and loss that we had simplified them in the title posts with "s" and "L".

The long 2277 FCPO and long 1801 FKLI will technically have their profit and loss being recorded in MARCH. Therefore, we know systematically the January and February accumulated profit and loss for FCPO is +108 and +6  points while FKLI is +110 and -35 index points respectively as the above write up.

No doubt the short term indicator Y is started with a good month for year 2015, readers traders are reminded again on the multiple losing trades like the 3 losing trades on FCPO recently. Do read back the old posts especially since the end of October 2014 to feel the pressure of multiple losing trades. Never over trading and get the 5x capital risk ratio! Read the links in the learning corner too.

Traders who own the 101indicators On Futures Trading book should be able to learn all this. Your accumulated profit and loss in January on FCPO will be -19 points but February +168 points your last long position at 2272 will also be brought forward to March and the profit and loss will only be recorded in March.  

(How to record your monthly accumulated profit and loss properly on your technical trend indicators is a very important issue in showing your trading discipline. Thus, do your homework in recording all the profit and loss in spreadsheet so that you can check easily your performance.)

Malaysia Fund’s Debts Make Defending Ringgit Tougher: Currencies

(Bloomberg News) -- Malaysia’s task in propping up Asia’s worst-performing currency just got a lot tougher. The cost of options protecting against further ringgit declines approached a 1 1/2-year high on speculation 1Malaysia Development Bhd., the state investment fund, will need a bailout. The currency is already languishing at its weakest level since 2009 as the oil-exporting nation suffers amid sliding crude prices.
     “The market remains wary of 1MDB’s ability to repay its debt,” Irene Cheung, a foreign-exchange strategist in Singapore at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group, said Feb. 24. “The ringgit is vulnerable to the near-term outlook for oil prices. A recovery is difficult.”
     A weaker currency is a concern for Malaysia because it pushes up the cost of servicing the second-highest external debt burden among Asia’s developing nations. Further losses in the
ringgit may hasten an investor exodus from Malaysian assets and hurt the government’s efforts to rein in its budget deficit. The ringgit has tumbled 7 percent in the past three months, the most among 11 Asian currencies tracked by Bloomberg, and touched a six-year low of 3.6460 a dollar on Feb. 23.

                          Overdue Loans

     That day, a report in Malaysia’s Edge newspaper suggested 1MDB may need a 3 billion-ringgit ($834 million) cash injection from the government to service debt, just two weeks after it repaid 2 billion ringgit in overdue loans. The investment fund responded by saying it would seek refinancing “from the best available sources.”
     “Whilst the 1MDB issues remain unresolved, there could still be a long shadow cast on the ringgit,” said Vishnu Varathan, a Singapore-based economist at Mizuho Bank Ltd., a
unit of Japan’s third-largest lender. The currency also suffers from “general concerns about fiscal risks,” he said.     Those concerns are showing up in derivatives prices. The premium on options giving the right to sell the ringgit in three months, over those allowing for purchases, widened to as much as2.36 percentage points on Feb. 23, risk-reversal data compiled by Bloomberg show.
     That’s approaching the peak of 2.45 percentage points on Jan. 30, which was the highest since September 2013.      Mizuho cut its year-end ringgit forecast to 3.4 to the dollar on Feb. 4, from 3.35 previously. Strategists have struggled to keep pace with the currency’s slide, and the median of 27 estimates in a Bloomberg survey puts it at 3.64 by Dec. 31, just 1.5 percent weaker than Thursday’s level of 3.5840.

                           Zeti’s Plea

     HSBC Holdings Plc, last year’s most-accurate forecaster of the ringgit in Bloomberg Rankings, is more pessimistic after revising its year-end estimate to 3.75 on Jan. 30, from 3.57.     Bank Negara Malaysia Governor Zeti Akhtar Aziz told reporters in Kuala Lumpur on Feb. 24 that the ringgit is
“undervalued” and should return to trading in line with economic fundamentals. In a sign the central bank may have intervened to support the currency, foreign-exchange reserves dropped 16 percent in the past eight months to a four-year low of $111 billion.
     A weaker ringgit makes it more expensive for the country to repay foreign borrowings. Malaysia’s proportion of external debt to gross domestic product is 54.6 percent, the highest among 13 Asian emerging markets tracked by Bloomberg after Sri Lanka and level with Pakistan.

                         Worsening Budget

     The ringgit started its recent slide in September, when a decline in oil prices gathered pace. Malaysia’s currency is particularly vulnerable to the 40 percent drop in Brent crude since then because of the country’s status as the sole net exporter of oil among Asia’s major economies. Energy accounts for almost 20 percent of Malaysia’s GDP.
     The damage wrought to the economy led Prime Minister Najib Razak to increase the Government’s 2015 fiscal-deficit target in January to 3.2 percent of GDP, from 3 percent. He cut the growth estimate to a range of 4.5 percent to 5.5 percent, from as much as 6 percent.
     Global funds responded to the drop in the currency by reducing holdings of Malaysian government and corporate debt by more than 25 billion ringgit in November and December, the
sharpest drop since mid-2013, according to the most recent data from the central bank. The weaker exchange rate, together with the loss of investment and oil revenue, may make it harder for
Malaysia to achieve its target of attaining developed-nation status by 2020.
     “It’s difficult to say where the support will come from for the ringgit,” said Sacha Tihanyi, a Hong Kong-based currency strategist at Scotiabank, which sees the currency tumbling 5 percent to 3.76 per dollar by year-end. “Most factors are still fundamentally bearish.”