Friday, 31 October 2014

The Worst Month Of The Year 2014

This is for those who did purchase "101indicators On Futures Trading" book...

The short term hourly technical trend trading experienced the worst month of the year of down 131 points due to the multiple losing trades and the floating profit that not recorded in October (carried forward to November). The total 10 months did record an accumulated profit of 895 points in following strictly on the stop and reverse trade signals. This is based on per contract size basis. It is important to record the losses than profits.

Never over trading! Follow the rules.


Malaysia's palm stocks to ease in 2014, 2015 as demand picks up -MPOB

Here is some of the important figures that good to know...

Malaysian palm oil stocks could drop 14 percent by the end of 2014 from 2.09 million at the end of last month, a senior official of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) said, as export demand and domestic food and fuel needs pick up...Inventories are seen drawing down to 1.8 million tonnes by the end of the year, and are likely to end 2015 at 1.7 million tonnes, Ramli Abdullah, the head of the MPOB's economic unit, told an industry meeting in Kuala Lumpur on Friday...The industry regulator had previously pegged stocks to range between 1.6 million and 1.8 million tonnes at the end of 2014, lower than the 1.99 million tonnes piled up at the end of 2013.

Output in Malaysia is expected to rise to 20.5 million tonnes in 2015, Ramli said, in the absence of extreme weather that could hurt yields...Malaysia produced 14.66 million tonnes of crude palm oil between January and September, up 7 percent from a year earlier.

Exports of Malaysian palm oil were seen at 17.9 million tonnes in 2014, below forecasts for 18.5 million, but are expected to rise to 18.2 million in 2015...Malaysia exported 18.15 million tonnes of palm oil in 2013, with China, India, Pakistan and Europe taking the bulk of shipments.

Source: Reuters

Indicator Y - October Accumulated Profit Is 14 Points

It is just to confirmed in this post that the month of October only generate gross accumulated profit of 14 points since the long 2137 will definitely carry forward to next month November which bring along the floating profit. There will be no stop and reverse sell signal at 6pm today based on the hourly indicator Y trading guides.

Read back the trading rules again in the "learning corner" on the right column, the hourly indicator Y generated 4 stop and reverse trades for this October months, first +17 second -30 third -8 fourth +35, total sum is +14 in the trading profit and loss.

We only saw 2 losing trades which is not considered to be a multiple losing trades. Traders are therefore to be more careful to focus on the multiple losing trades that may happen to all kinds of technical trend indicators in short term trend trading. If traders can stand the heat of the multiple losing trades and can prove that the indicator has yearly good profit, traders should have found a good trading system.

Indicator Y - Long 2137 Stop Loss 2237

This stop loss order at 2237 does not mean that it will be a loss against the long 2137 (it is so clear that the long is below the stop loss price!), it is a profit to protect the long 2137 for traders who do have fear, this stop loss is initiated without following the hourly indicator Y trading guides!

The stop and reverse sell trade signal is getting higher above the long 2137 but it is still far below the 2237 stop loss and the current closing price 2291. Therefore, it is believed that 4pm and 5pm hourly indicator Y will not have a stop and reverse sell trade today.

6pm update will be available in advance if there is a clear sign that the stop and reverse sell signal of hourly indicator Y above 2237; otherwise, it is meant that the hourly indicator Y trading guides will hold on its bullish view and cpo futures prices may go beyond 2300.

Indicator Y - Long 2137 Day 8 Beyond 2300?

The long 2137 based on the hourly indicator Y reached its second target 2287 or 150 points level and cpo futures price was actually hit high 2302 yesterday. Can it reach the third target 2339 when cpo futures price is traded above 2300?

Unless cpo futures price is traded below 2200 level in morning trading session, it is believed that the hourly indicator Y will continue holding on its long 2137 since the stop and reverse sell trade signal is remained at very low level.

Update will be available one hour in advance if there is a clear sign of the stop and reverse sell signal on the hourly indicator Y.

Thursday, 30 October 2014

Indicator Y - October Less Than 10 Points Profits?

The weak performance in the accumulated profit and loss for the month of October is based on the assumption that the long 2137 will be carried forward to the month of November and the profit will be only recorded in November, or in short, the trading profit and loss for the long 2137 will not be recorded in October.

Just check back all the updates in October, readers traders should be able to find that the gross accumulated profit was recorded at 14 points only. This is excluding the trading cost and bad filled prices that probably happened due to last seconds trades.

Unless the stop and reverse sell trade signal is triggered before the 6pm close tomorrow, we are expecting the accumulated profit in October will be less than 10 points per contract! (it is better to be under employment than to be a trader!!! This is not yet mentioned on when a trader is having bad months!!! No need to talk about good, it is better to talk about bad so that you are ready if you wish to be a trader.)

Indicator Y - Long 2137 Day 7 Target Beyond 2287?

Missing by just 1 point of target 2287 on the cpo futures high 2286 at opening had almost 150 points in its second profit target after the 101 points 2238 first target being hit yesterday.

If greed overcame fear yesterday, traders sit tight and let profit run, there will be an extra of nearly 50 points per contract today. Again, it is "if"... because if fear struck in yesterday, traders would take profit at 2238 without taking the hourly indicator Y rules. Greed had won today if traders greedy for better profit!

The hourly indicator Y long 2137 will remain in Day 7 today since price is getting higher and still no sign of stop and reverse sell trade signal. Go to the learning corner to read about the weaknesses of the indicator Y as it is important to the weaknesses!