Friday, 19 December 2014

Indicator Y Short 2141 - Long If 6pm Above 2127

Since 5pm cpo futures price was last traded 2149 that only 1 point below the 5pm stop and reverse buy trade signal that was posted in the previous write-up, the 6pm stop and reverse buy trade signal is actually being adjusted much lower that is at the low of today.

The hourly indicator Y short 2141 will therefore do a stop and reverse buy once cpo futures price is closed above 2127 at 6pm later today, which mean if cpo futures price is closed above 2141 the short 2141 will have to cut loss turn long at 6pm. Again, this is without taking any consideration of higher high lower low data and unforeseen circumstances between 5pm to 6pm cpo futures data.

However, if below 2141 but above 2127, the hourly indicator Y short 2141 will take profit turn long at 6pm. This will be the first profit of December if it does happen!

It seems that 6pm will be the 5th stop and reverse trade signal for this month of December.

Indicator Y Short 2141 - Buy If 5pm CPO 2150 Or Higher

The hourly indicator Y short 2141 will have to cut loss and turn long once cpo futures price is last traded 2150 or higher at 5pm sharp today according to the indicator Y trading guides. The short 2141 is getting more fear than greed now in holding on the positions as cpo futures price is kept trading above its selling price. Trading above 2160 will seriously affect its performance of year 2014.

This is the 11th multiple losing trade if cpo futures price is triggering the stop and reverse buy trade signal at 5pm later today. How much is the accumulated losses since early November and since early December?

Indicator Y Short 2141 - 4pm Trade View And SAR

The hourly indicator Y short 2141 had a trading range between 2150 and 2127 that not far away from the short position but cpo futures price was closed above 2141 at 1230pm in the morning trading session that started putting more pressure on the short since the next few trading sessions will see the stop and reverse buy trade signal being adjusted lower and lower if cpo futures price is kept trading above the short 2141.

The short 2141 will have to cut loss turn buying if cpo futures price is last traded 2168 or higher at 4pm later today based on the hourly indicator Y trading guides (otherwise, hold on the short). This will be the 11th multiple losing trade if the stop and reverse buy trade signal is triggered at 4pm.

Again, the assumption is made without taking into consideration of any higher high lower low data and also unforeseen circumstances like what did happen before in in the past few posts that we did mention.

Indicator Y Short 2141 - Last 8 Trading Days

(Repeated Again... knowing that not much profit (but not losses!) can be recorded in the last 8 trading days in the year 2014 spreadsheet, readers traders should bear in mind that the hourly indicator Y's write-up may not be as frequent as before. This had been kept mentioning in our last few posts and focus will be more on the preparation of the year 2015.)

The hourly indicator Y short 2141 is still finding no stop and reverse buy trade signal at 1130am today, and even also at 1230pm if cpo futures price is traded lower at 1130am.

The hourly indicator Y short 2141 saw high 2163 yesterday and therefore may need the cpo futures price to keep trading lower below its selling price 2141 from now on, otherwise, its stop and reverse buy trade signal will soon be coming down near the current level and triggering a buy trade signal.

There is no doubt about it, year 2014 has been quite a year especially the last two month of November and December helped me writing a great blog telling about multiple losing trades that I told readers traders in early October. Read back all the old posts from end of September and I believe novice traders who had purchased my books will have some good soul searching especially on trading rhythm as technical trend traders on multiple losing trades.

As the year winds down, last 8 trading days, I believe that there will definitely not much profit can be added to the year 2014 performance above 800 points but the losses also may not substantially reduce its accumulated profits since the beginning of the year 2014. 

We will discuss in full details what are you doing to prepare for the year 2015 while showing you the summary of the year 2014 on 31st December 2014 or early January 2015. As for now, it is a good time to slow down before the middle of the December (traders' own judgement) since I have to say it's probably been a good year and I wish 2014 is a good year for you too.  

Thursday, 18 December 2014

Indicator Y Short 2141 - Last 9 Trading Days

(Repeated Again... knowing that not much profit (but not losses!) can be recorded in the last 9 trading days in the year 2014 spreadsheet, readers traders should bear in mind that the hourly indicator Y's write-up may not be as frequent as before. This had been kept mentioning in our last few posts and focus will be more on the preparation of the year 2015.)

The hourly indicator Y short 2141 only saw cpo futures price reached 2103 low so far on yesterday and traded high 2146 just now.

The stop and reverse buy trade signal is still not available in this write up yet and therefore it is believed that the short 2141 will probably hold on for today again. We will post a new write-up once there is a chance of seeing clear signal based on the hourly indicator Y trading guides.

Wednesday, 17 December 2014

Indicator Y Short 2141 - Last 10 Trading Days

Again, knowing that not much profit (but not losses!) can be recorded in the last 10 trading days in the year 2014 spreadsheet, readers traders should bear in mind that the hourly indicator Y's write-up may not be as frequent as before. This had been kept mentioning in our last few posts and focus will be more on the preparation of the year 2015.

As low 2107, the hourly short 2141 is having small floating profit now but it is still far away from the breakeven point at 2000 level in order to recover all the accumulated losses of December.

Assume that the short 2141 will only be covered and turned long in year 2015, we can basically say that the performance of year 2014 is ended here with a total profit of RM18,250 per contract size from its 5x risk capital of RM20,000 per contract size basis. Remember, it is just a gross profit of 730 points from 800 points seed capital per contract size basis.

If 200 points is the trading cost, the profit of year 2014 will be 530 points over its seed capital 800 points which is about 66% rate of return less than the targeted 100%  yearly rate of return due to the multiple losing trades in November December.

Tuesday, 16 December 2014

Indicator Y Short 2141 - December November Breakeven Levels

The hourly indicator Y short 2141 had been initiated at 1230pm this afternoon after cpo futures price was closed at 2141 that triggered its stop and reverse sell trade signal as mentioned in previous posts that we had given one hour in advance.

Looking back the multiple losing trades, in building the 60% greed and 40% fear that we keep mentioning earlier, cpo futures price will need to be traded much lower end in order to recover or breakeven from all the losses incurred by the multiple losing trades.

There is a very high chance that the profit will not be able to be recorded as mentioned in the earlier post too, we are here just to bring up the issue of breakeven. It is basically an easy computation on the short 2141 that need to reach low 2000 in order to recover back the losses of December while November losses will be a bit tricky because we know that November had 1 profit trade and 6 losing trades with accumulated losses of 130 points. However, if just to look into the 6 losing trades that created the multiple losing trades, the breakeven level will be seriously much lower that we need a real super bear run cpo futures market to breakeven, understand? Think about it yourself or read back the previous post to find how low we need to have on the profit target to breakeven!

So far we have only about 20 points of floating profit, it is a long journey to ride on.

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