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Thursday, 10 July 2014

What Happened In June MPOB Figures?

June palm oil production fell 5.3% to 1.57 million metric tons.
End-month stocks fell 10% from to 1.66 million metric tons.
Export 1.48 million metric tons or 5.3% higher from a month ago.
Here is the table from MPOB data:
June May Change
                                                   On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output  1,569,788     1,656,957     Dn   5.3%
Palm Oil Exports       1,481,262     1,406,918     Up   5.3%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports   59,249        87,495     Dn  32.3%
Palm Oil Imports               0         8,025     Dn 100.0%
Closing Stocks         1,656,736     1,841,360     Dn  10.0%
Crude Palm Oil           828,414       978,812     Dn  15.5%
Processed Palm Oil       828,322       861,548     Dn   3.9%

Production in Sabah Sarawak drop 10% that have big influence now while P.Malaysia unchanged. Both East and West Malaysia almost have the same production figures now a day.

The 10% drop in end month stock mainly due to P.Malaysia that have more than 13% drop or more than 100,000 metric tons that killed the bear today after opening at 3pm on Bursa Malaysia.

Tuesday, 8 July 2014

What They Said On Palm Oil

What they said...

...Historically, a severe El Nino would result in a 10%-15% drop in CPO production volume, and a 30%-40% increase in average selling prices.
However, the upward pressures would likely be countered by the narrowing of the gap between the prices of soybean oil and CPO.
Soybean oil is a substitute for CPO and a good harvest in major producer the US, which is forecast to export 1.75 billion pounds of soybean oil in 2014, has pushed the price of soybean oil down, shrinking the premium over CPO prices to an average of US$91 a ton in January-May 2014 from US$244/ton in 2013, according to data compiled by Bloomberg...


source: The Star newspaper

Wednesday, 2 July 2014

Wang Tao's Q3 2014 Palm Oil Technical Analysis

Most commodities such as oil, precious and base metals, palm oil, corn and wheat are likely to extend their gains in the third-quarter. However, a few such as aluminium, soybeans, coffee and cocoa may go the opposite way. Bulls should be cautioned that the rallies are big rebounds in nature, as commodities in generally are on long-term bearish cycle...Q3 COMMODITY, ENERGY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BY WANG TAO, Reuters Market Analyst.


Tuesday, 1 July 2014

What Is Your June Profit And Loss

Traders who have using hourly key indicator based on the book, 101indicators On Futures Trading, should have such a record for the month of June (if not, your data collection will be in trouble):

Long 2433 +72
Short 2424 -9
Long 2403 +21
Short 2443 +43
Long 2474 -31
Short 2471 -3

The above stop and reverse trade signals should be shown in the spreadsheet with a profit of 90 ticks per contract size for the month of June. The last short 2471 had floating profit when cpo futures last traded 2425 at the 6pm close on 30/6/2014 but the profit will be carried forward to the month of July.  

US Commodities - Corn Soybean Tumbled On Robust Supplies

U.S. corn futures slid more than 4% to a five-month low, while soybean futures dropped to the lowest in more than three months. Wheat prices followed those commodities lower, slipping to an almost five-month low.

Soybeans 
The soybean market saw a double-whammy today with June 1 stocks coming in well above market expectations, while new crop planted acreage shocked to the upside, as well. With last year's soybean crop now apparently confirmed as being understated, and the perception that there will be enough old crop supplies to get through marketing year, the 2013/14 fundamental "bullish story" has essentially be closed. While there could/likely will be localized cash issues still, given the combination of reports today there may simply be a "washing of the hands" of the old crop thought-process in quick fashion. USDA reported June 1 soybean stocks at 405 million bushels, above the average trade estimate of 378 million bushels, and implied a 3rd quarter residual of an all-time record negative of -110 million bushels. As seen in the two following charts, today's reported June 1 stocks represented on of the largest bearish surprises on record relative to trade expectations and a negative 3rd quarter residual beyond anything ever reflected in the U.S. soybean balance sheet.


Corn 
After two quarters of USDA indicating very good, and surprisingly strong, U.S. corn feed/residual usage, and putting the market in a sense of clarity that cheap prices do indeed create impressive levels of domestic demand - even with historically poor livestock numbers - the rug was pulled out from under that scenario today as June 1 stocks were reported 3.854 billion bushels, 132 million bushels above expectations. This was the 2nd largest "bearish surprise" in history for June 1 stocks. Heading into the report this morning, the average trade estimate implied the market was looking for 3rd quarter feed/residual usage to be up 8% from last year, after 1st quarter was up nearly 16% and 2nd quarter was up 34% statistically, but 3rd quarter feed/residual usage was implied at just 864 million bushels, down more than 6% from last year. Once again, we witnessed a very unlikely realistic occurrence as somehow we went from 2nd quarter usage up 34% to 3rd quart er being down 6+%. However, the negative feed/residual implications do not stop with just today's 3rd quarter situation.

Source: Telequote & rjomrt.com