MPOB had released the end month stock for the month of May at 1.84 million tonnes, up 4 over percent against April 1.77 million tonnes. May production was 1.657 million tonnes with export 1.405 million tonnes. Looking at such figures, the stock usage ratio will be pushing higher fundamentally and making a bearish tone for the cpo futures market.
If (only if) palm oil production in June is up 10%, the output figure will be over 1.82 million tonnes, minus out the sluggish export assumed at 1.4 million as the same with last month, the end month stock for the month of June will be hitting 2 million mark - the psychology level on bumper crop!!! El Nino is coming but not now! So, who can help reducing the end month stock for June???
Note: this is just a fundamental guess on palm oil supply and demand in Malaysia market.
As a start for June short term technical trend trading, an hourly key indicator had started another good profit for the beginning of this month with profit carried over from the month of May when short 2505 and then bought 2433 on 4/6/2014 with a profit of 72 ticks. However, It cut loss turned short at 2424 the very next day at 11:30am and holding the short 2424 until today. It will remain short 2424 since the stop and reverse buy signal is still far away especially in the morning trading session.