Thursday, 31 December 2015

The Summary Of 101indicators Yearly Performance 2015

This year is a drubbing year for one technical trend indicator under the data collection of 101indicators On Futures Trading with over 150 (amendment : 118 not 150) stop and reverse trade signals. It generates less than 30% yearly rate of return based on the $20,000 risk capital ratio.

One interesting observation... the last 3 years in a row, every last quarter, the Q4, hit with red. In year 2013, the Q4 incurred 121 ticks of losses. In year 2014, the Q4 incurred 60 ticks of losses. In this year 2015, the Q4 incurred over 200 ticks of losses ( if no sell signal today! ). Year 2013 was a moderate year but 2014 was a good year, and readers traders can find the results in the old posts since profit is not an important issue to discuss here.

With a conservative $20,000 risk capital per contract size basis as mentioned in this blog, the 220 ticks losses in November would make traders facing more than 25% losses from the risk capital. There was one technical trend indicator incurred total 439 ticks losses in two months (October and November), and it had more than 50% losses from the $20,000 risk capital. How will readers traders feel if you only use $10,000 as risk capital? Fear not and still Greed?

No doubt they all generated profits when we summarized them from the monthly accumulated profit and loss table, can readers traders follow them year after year? One of technical trend indicators that made more than 1200 ticks this year but what about previous years and next year 2016 onwards?

Last but not least, we have done our best in this CPO Futures blog by telling readers traders about data collection, fear and greed, and the most important technical jargon... Multiple Losing Trades. This is more important than profit because once you are able to manage your losses, you will have no worry on profits in accumulating wealth as long as your technical trend indicators have proven yearly track records.

Recap: technical trend trading is 30/70 game that is less than 30 percent profit trades while more than 70 percent losing trades that can really stress traders. Thus, can you take such a pressure especially on the 70% losing trades or even more?

Happy And Prosperous New Year 2016.