Friday, 17 April 2015

Biodiesel Margin - Breakeven Level Near

Here is the chart on biodiesel margin taken from the RHB Investment Bank research report (source: Bloomberg):

Here is the excerpt from the research report:

Improving equation. With the recovery in energy prices, the negative spread between Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) gasoil price and palm oil has narrowed to USD6/barrel (bbl). This effectively means that the export levy to be imposed by Indonesia will be able to cover a bigger number of biodiesel tonnage, hence improving its probability of success. (Indonesia will impose an export levy of USD50/tonne for crude palm oil and USD30/tonne for refined palm oil. Assuming Indonesia exports 20m tonnes of its 32m tonnes palm oil production in refined form, it stands to collect USD600m in export levy.)

Cost of biodiesel. For the purpose of supply to Pertamina, biodiesel is priced at CPO price plus USD125/tonne, which translates into USD712. Compared this with gasoil price of USD74.16/bbl or USD543.6/tonne, there is a deficit of USD168.9/tonne to be covered by the above mentioned USD600m export levy. This works out to be 3.55m tonnes of palm biodiesel, which is close to triple of last year’s usage.