The Secret In Charter Eight

Charter Eight? Yes to those who had purchased the 101indicators On Futures Trading Book, it is the CHARTER EIGHT that bring in 100% return (400 ticks per contracts of profits with RM10,000.00 seed capital for not over trading discipline) in four months that you started the CPO Futures short term technical trend trading strategy from the beginning of this year 2014. It is unlike the hourly key indicator which is more with complicated stop and reverse trading rules to follow and more false signals. The hourly key indicator was badly hit in early this year before doing its best this month of May as I had shown in last few updates.

If you have bought the 101indicators On Futures Trading Book, you will be able to see the "Charters" not "Chapters"! In page 153, Charter Eight: The Secret Of Mastering One Technical Trend Indicator. It is only one technical trend trading indicator that traders need to learn for trading success in CPO futures trading.

All the best to readers traders who have purchased the book.

Asian Agri Stops Using ‘Illegal’ Oil Palm Fruits

Asian Agri, one of Indonesia’s major crude palm oil (CPO) producers, has promised it will stop receiving a supply of freshly harvested fruits from “illegal” oil palm plantations in line with its commitment to become a truly sustainable and environmentally friendly CPO producer.
The company announced that beginning Friday, it would implement a policy that requires all suppliers of its oil palm fruits including independent farmers, (not including its plasma farmers) and other third-party oil palm fruit suppliers to include legal documents of their freshly harvested fruits.
The policy is part of the company’s effort to prevent encroachment of natural and protected forests, stop illegal oil palm plantations and build a sustainable supply chain.
Foreign buyers especially in Europe will only buy certified CPO to ensure that all CPO products they import are sourced from plantations that are based on sustainable concepts. The certification is given to a company that can, among others, prove that they are not operating in forest conservation areas and causing deforestation.

Source: The Jakarta Post

Mission Accomplished For A Technical Indicator Trade

There will be a change of contract month for 3rd active contract month in CPO futures trading from July contract month to August contract month effective as at tomorrow. This is basically affecting all short term technical trend trading indicators due to big discount or premium between the two contract months. Readers traders who follow short term technical trend indicators must aware that your trading indicators will be affected too due to big discount or premium when there is change of contract months.

I had basically shown the short term technical trend trading using my hourly key indicator in the past two weeks and readers traders should have realized how bad the multiple losing trades and a single profit technical trend trade that long 2567 holding until today. Therefore, it is considered a mission accomplished in showing how to use a simple technical trend indicator on short term technical trend trading strategy. 

I will temporarily stop updating the next stop and reverse trade signals from tomorrow onwards and wish to apologize for not be able to continue for the whole month of May. Hence, today update will be -- the 5pm SAR is 2616 or lower. If 5pm is still holding on long 2567, 6pm SAR may be even higher by a few ticks.

Just remember that if you wish to be a technical trend trader, please be prepared facing multiple losing trades before getting a good trend or few good trends. Best regards.  

60 Ticks Profit At High 2627

As this blog is not soliciting any business from all readers traders, please take your own risk in cpo futures trading which is the most active and volatile in Bursa Malaysia Derivatives. It is just a trading experience using technical trend indicators - The CPO Futures Hourly Key Indicator is just one of the technical trend indicators being using in this blog.

As of 1130am, the cpo futures price was above the stop and reverse sell 2602 signal, the cpo futures hourly key indicator is having higher floating profit now with holding on its long 2567.

The hourly key indicator will do a stop and reverse sell once cpo futures price is closed below 2613 at 1230pm without considering any higher high or lower low data.

Sell If 1130am Below 2603

The cpo futures hourly key indicator long 2567 will have to do a stop and reverse sell if the 3rd contract month price is traded 2602 or lower at 1130am today. Otherwise, hold on the long 2567 if readers traders are just following the simple stop and reverse trade signal.

At high 2614 yesterday, the profit range had reached 47 ticks against its long 2567. Therefore, it is believed that the trade will be a profitable trade after being hit with multiple losing trades.

39 Ticks Of Profit At High 2606

The cpo futures hourly key indicator is still holding on its long 2567 with 4pm stop and reverse sell signal at 2584 or lower later today.

Its floating profit is not over 30 ticks against its long 2567 and this may help to improve its accumulated profit for the month of May. The accumulated profit had been substantially reduced to only 12 ticks from 65 ticks as of last update when the hourly key indicator turned long 2567.

Readers traders must always remember that the stop and reverse trade signals in this blog will be affected by new lower low and higher high data over the hourly short term technical trend trading strategy; therefore, by the time at 4pm later today, the stop and reverse sell signal 2584 may be different and will not available to all in advance. No profit targets will be set in this blog for readers traders since everyone will have different kinds of greed strategy.

The Long 2567 Is Remained

As the last traded price is getting higher, the cpo futures hourly key indicator is getting lower on its stop and reverse trade signal. It will only turn sell if cpo futures price is closed below 2570 at 6pm today without looking at the higher high or lower low.

It seems that the long will have to carry overnight to see whether there is a chance for bigger profit or not, and if the trend is followed, the long 2567 will be expecting to have a better profit in coming few days.

Sell If 5pm Below 2571

The cpo futures hourly key indicator is still holding on the long 2567 and will only do a stop and reverse sell once 5pm cpo futures price is at 2570 or lower. It is still hovering near the stop and reverse trade signal even though the futures price did go to high 2593 and back to near its buying level.

Today we have MPOB figures which seemed that it was within expectation, ITS or Intertek gave a good export figures for the first 10-day export in May while waiting the SGS figures.

MPOB Figures; Sell If 4pm Below 2566

MPOB supply and demand figures - palm oil production at 1.556 MMT, end month stock 1.766 MMT and export 1.260 MMT. It is basically the official fundamental data that will affect the cpo futures trading price at 3pm open later today. No comment will be based on the above data in this blog since it is purely looking at technical trend indicators.

The cpo futures hourly key indicator will cut loss and turn short if the 3rd active contract month is traded 2565 or lower at 4pm later today. Again, the higher high or lower low data will not be considered in this write-up even though these data may affect the 4pm stop and reverse trade signal; therefore, please take note that the 4pm 2565 may be changed without further notice in advance.

Palm Oil Sell If 1130am Below 2560

The cpo futures hourly key indicator is remained its long 2567 initiated since 1230pm last Friday unless cpo futures price is traded 2559 or lower at 1130am today.

The accumulated profit as of last traded stop and reverse level 2567 is 12 ticks. We will not include the floating profit of 10 ticks at 2577 close until there is another stop and reverse trade being initiated which may be a good profit or bad losing trade.

Hourly Palm Oil Long 2567

As the stop and reverse sell signal is remained low at 2553, it is believed that the cpo futures hourly key indicator will hold on the long 2567 at the end of market close today and will have to carry overnight since the current higher high price is about 40 ticks away from the stop and reverse trade signal.

Readers traders in this crude palm oil futures blog are reminded that there may be no further updates or comments if the stop and reverse trade signal is believed far away from the current price. 

Readers traders must understand that there is sudden big swing of cpo futures prices that hitting those stop and reverse trade signals that not being updated in this blog and therefore readers traders must take own risk in doing stop and reverse trade before the latest stop and reverse trade signal being given in this blog.

Palm Oil Buy 2567 At 1230pm

The cpo futures hourly key indicator bought back the same price on its short 2567 and turned long 2567 at 1230pm just now. This is considered to be break-even in its accumulated profit and loss update even though there is cost of trading in it. Therefore, please take note that the accumulated profit is remained 12 ticks per contract size basis which is just a gross profit and loss figure being record.

The hourly key indicator will hold long 2567 from now on until 4pm. If 4pm cpo futures price is below 2558, cut loss and turn sell.

Buy If 1230pm Above 2562

The cpo futures hourly key indicator will remain short 2567 unless the futures price is closed 2563 or higher at 1230pm in the morning trading session close.

As this is a simple stop and reverse trade signal trading methodology based on the hourly key indicator, the profit targets will not be given here since all readers traders have own set of greed and discipline. Therefore, up to readers traders do own greed strategy in profit taking levels. 

This blog is just for personal view without soliciting any business from readers traders. Therefore, take your own risk and be a responsible futures technical trend trader.

Buy If 1130am Above 2563

Without considering the lower low and higher high charting data, the cpo futures hourly key indicator in short term technical trend trading will have to do a stop and reveres buy once the 3rd active contract month price is traded 2564 or higher at 1130am today.

It is still holding on the short 2567 initiated at 4pmm yesterday, seeing the low 2552 to the high 2569 after turning sell. The accumulated profit only balance 12 ticks per contract size basis after the selling 2567. 

Cut Loss Turn Sell 2567 At 4pm

The cpo futures hourly key indicator cut loss 14 ticks and turned selling 2567 at 4pm just now. It will start holding on short 2567 from now on unless cpo futures price is traded 2571 or higher at 5pm today.

The accumulated profit for May is stood at 12 ticks per contract size basis only after the stop and reverse sell signal is triggered at 2567 at 4pm.

Challenge EU Biofuel Anti-dumping Tariffs

Indonesia will soon lodge a formal complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO) over the European Union’s anti-dumping duty, which hampers its biodiesel exports.

Indonesia decided to advance to the global trade governing body to seek a fair ruling in the dispute, as the tariffs charged by the grouping created barriers to its palm-oil-based biodiesel, Deputy Trade Minister Bayu Krisnamurthi said Wednesday.

“We consider the imposition of the tariffs does not comply with WTO rules, and for that reason we’ll challenge it,” Bayu said.

Since the end of November last year, the 28-member bloc has applied considerable five-year tariffs on biodiesel from both Indonesia and Argentina of up to euro245.67 (US$342.32) per ton, or equal to 25.7 percent of the selling price.

The anti-dumping duty was issued following an EU investigation that found Indonesia’s biofuel being sold below normal value in its market. Imports from Indonesia jumped between 2008 and 2011, allowing its market share to rise steeply from 1.4 percent to 9.7 percent, thereby threatening the industry across the bloc.

The levies have affected several Indonesian biodiesel producers, including PT Musim Mas and PT Pelita Agung Agrindustri.

Soon after the EU introduced the steep tariffs, the government and industry players complained directly to the grouping for allegedly making discriminatory calculations on biodiesel prices and production costs, causing a loss in competitive edge.

Indonesian Biofuel Producers Association (Aprobi) secretary-general Paulus Tjakrawan said several Indonesian biofuel producers affected by the measures had recently filed separate appeals to the European Court of Justice.

“The decision was made as the anti-dumping duties really hurt their businesses,” he told The Jakarta Post.

Meanwhile, the government’s formal complaint to the WTO will be preceded by a series of consultations over the measures. If the talks fail to resolve the trade quarrel within 60 days, Indonesia will be granted the right to step up its fight through a new request for the establishment of a dispute settlement panel.

Indonesia’s move follows on the heels of Argentina, whose biofuel exports are also subject to the punitive duties. Argentina is a step ahead in the dispute resolution, as it recently asked the WTO’s Dispute Settlement Body (DSB) to create a panel in order to resolve the issue.

The Trade Ministry’s trade defense director, Nurlaila, said the government had prepared a lawyer to tackle the case. “Principally, we cannot accept the imposition of the duty, particularly due to the calculations. For that substantial reason, we will advance,” she told the Post in a telephone interview.

Indonesia, the world’s largest producer of palm oil, the raw material used for biodiesel, has attracted recurring accusations from its trading partners, including the EU, about its palm oil derivatives.

The price of its biofuel, for instance, is highly competitive compared to biofuel made from other feedstock. Palm oil-based biofuel is sold at $200 per ton less than biofuel made from other types of vegetable oil.

Before the EU applied the stringent duty, it had alleged that Indonesia’s biofuel producers had obtained unfair subsidies from the government, but later retracted the accusation.

Source: Linda Yulisman, The Jakarta Post.

4pm SAR Is 2567

The 4pm stop and reverse sell signal is the same with the last traded price at 1230pm. The cpo futures hourly key indicator will cut loss turn sell once the 3rd active contract month is traded 2567 or lower at 4pm later today; or else, holding its floating loss position long at price 2581.

The 65 ticks per contract size basis of profit accumulated in the early May had substantially reduced and this is a very good warning sign for novice traders to learn that the futures trading need a lot more of margin to maintain good trading discipline. 

If novice traders use the initial margin as required by Bursa Malaysia Derivatives, they will out of trading one day when get hit by multiple losing trades. Over trading is another dangerous bad trading habit by novice traders thinking of they can handle well in the volatile cpo futures market and get burned one day. 

Therefore, learn to put in more margin and do not over trade if you wish to be a successful technical trend trader one day since you know that you just need good trends with good technical trend trading discipline.  

Sell If 1230pm Below 2562

The cpo futures price was traded below 2581 but still above its SAR level at 1130am, and therefore the cpo futures hourly key indicator is still holding on the long 2581 with floating losses.

The hourly key indicator will have to cut loss and turn selling once the cpo futures price is closed 2561 or lower at 1230pm later today. Otherwise, remain long 2581 and wait for next trading session.

Palm oil imports latest casualty as China tightens credit - Reuters

I think this is a good article to share and read about palm oil fundamental even though some readers traders may have already know it...

* Will drag on global prices at time of growing supply
* Financing crackdown has already hit copper, soybean imports
By Naveen Thukral and Anuradha Raghu

SINGAPORE/KUALA LUMPUR, May 7 (Reuters) - Chinese palm oil imports could be hit as buyers struggle for funding, the latest casualty in Beijing's crackdown on commodity financing in the face of slowing domestic demand.

That drive has already taken a toll on several products with Chinese purchases of iron ore, rubber and copper tumbling, while importers have defaulted on at least half a million tonnes of soybeans.

Reduced palm oil imports by the world's No.2 buyer of the commodity would drag further on benchmark Bursa Malaysia futures that dropped to a three-month low last week on rising output in key growers Malaysia and Indonesia.

Commodities have been commonly used for financing in China, where traders or investors borrow against a product with the aim of investing the money in high-return areas such as real estate.

But faced with slowing growth and signs that authorities will not step in every time a loan goes bad, Chinese banks are becoming more hard-nosed and selective about whom they lend to.

With traders and industry officials estimating that around 70 percent of China's palm oil imports are connected to this kind of financing, shipments are set to drop.

"Palm oil has strong fundamental demand in China but we might see inflows impacted as a result of tighter access to credit, among other factors including higher inventories at ports and higher supplies of soybean oil," said Abah Ofon, an analyst with Standard Chartered in Singapore.

China does not grow any palm oil and is second only to India in imports, buying around 6 to 6.5 million tonnes a year - around 15 percent of global trade. Mainly sold as a cooking oil, palm is also used in products ranging from ice cream to cosmetics and has a shelf-life of about two years.

Traders said it was difficult to estimate the size of any decline in imports, but edible oil industry consultant Shanghai Pansun Information & Technology Co. Ltd said it could be around half a million tonnes this year.

HUGE LOSSES

Chinese palm oil importers could end up with huge losses, with domestic prices dropping as economic growth eases. The spread between local palm oil prices in China and the cost of importing cargoes has zoomed to a loss of 1,000 yuan ($160) per tonne, said industry sources in China.

Although a trader in Malaysia said refined palm oil was this week quoted at $770 a tonne in the Chinese market, about $90 less than the cost of importing cargoes.

Buyers typically make money by selling palm oil at higher prices in the local market or suffer a marginal loss which they can recover by investing loan money in more profitable business, traders said.

"The gap in prices will result in a loss of 16 percent," said Cai Nengbin, general manager at Shanghai Pansun.

"If the losses were at 5, 6 or 7 percent, then these traders could offset them by using the money for re-financing, but 16 percent is too big."

This has resulted in palm oil stockpiles at Chinese ports climbing to 1 million tonnes compared with the usual 600,000 to 700,000 tonnes, with importers unwilling to sell at a loss.

One palm oil producer in Malaysia said China would not allow more imports because storage tanks at ports were packed to capacity.

"The financial traders in China who bought the oil have put their cargoes in storage," said the producer whose company also runs an edible oil refining plant in China. He declined to be named as he is not authorised to speak to media.

"They are keeping the oil in anticipation of the market going higher."

China's palm oil imports in January-March eased slightly to 1.47 million tonnes from 1.49 million tonnes a year ago, with traders saying a larger drop is to come. ($1 = 6.2257 Chinese Yuan) (Additional reporting by Niu Shuping in Beijing and Yayat Supriatna in Jakarta; Editing by Joseph Radford)

Sell If 1130am Is below 2560

In reply to a reader trader, this update may just last for a month or two for them to learn how technical trend trading is implemented. It is very difficult to write update every hour and FIVE times a day, therefore, I wish that readers traders can understand that there is possible no update on time for reading and making decision.

The cpo futures hourly key indicator for short term technical trend trading in May only accumulated 26 ticks of profit so far based on per contract size basis or equivalent to RM650 per lot.

The hourly key indicator long 2581 since 5pm yesterday. It will cut loss turn sell if cpo futures price is last traded 2559 or lower at 1130am in the morning trading session today.

Buy 2581 At 5pm

CPO Futures hourly key indicator finally cut loss and turned long 2581 at 5pm just now. It incurred 15 ticks of losses and had reduced the accumulated profit of May to 26 ticks only from 65 ticks at the beginning of this month.

The hourly key indicator will hold on 2581 long from now on unless the cpo futures price is closed below 2562 at 6pm today. It seems have to start holding on long 2581 for overnight position.

Buy If 5pm Above 2567

Remain short 2566 after 4pm trade and now we have to look that the 5pm show. The cpo futures hourly key indicator will do a stop and reverse buy once the cpo futures price is traded 2568 or higher at 5pm later today. Or else, hold on the short and wait until 6pm trade signal.

It is kept trading near the SAR level. Readers traders will have to do own profit taking level based on own greed strategy and the blog here is only giving your the SAR trade signal based on its hourly key indicator on short term technical trend trading strategy.

Buy If 4pm Is Above 2568

Repeat Again... Without considering the lower low or the higher high in the short term technical trend trading chart that may affect the stop and reverse trade signal, the trade signal is now for 4pm that will be cut loss turn buy once it is 2569 or higher at 4pm sharp later today. Or else, remain holding short 2566. 

The cpo futures hourly key indicator is a short term technical trend trading indicator and sometimes may be affected by those lower low or higher high data in its computation. Therefore, I wish to keep repeating all trading rules that I write here in order to alert readers traders that the SAR 2569 may be different by the time come at 4pm once there is a change in the lower low or higher high.

Buy If 1230pm Is Above 2571

Again... Without considering the lower low or the higher high in the short term technical trend trading chart that may affect the stop and reverse trade signal, the 1230pm trade signal will be cut loss turn buy once it is 2572 or higher at 1230pm sharp. Or else, remain holding short 2566.

The CPO Futures hourly key indicator has its many trading rules and discipline that need to be followed but it is regret to say that I can't listed them down since all readers traders have own set of trading discipline. Therefore, keep it simple and follow the stop and reverse (SAR) trade signal in this blog is the main topic to discuss, leaving others to decided by readers traders themselves.

Buy If 1130am Above 2674

Without considering the lower low or the higher high in the short term technical trend trading chart that may affect the stop and reverse trade signal at 1130am, cpo futures hourly key indicator will cut loss and turn long once 1130am is traded 2575 or higher. It is still holding on short 2566 at the moment after turning sell at 1130am yesterday.

Readers traders must learn that there is important fundamental data like MPOB, ITS (Intertek) and SGS. Keep them in your spreadsheet that is good for you to learn about long term trend. Do more reading also on Indonesia news if can since they are the biggest producer in palm oil now a day. 

2581 Is The 6pm SAR Buy Signal

The hourly key indicator will cut loss and turn buy if cpo futures price is closed above 2580 at 6pm today. Otherwise, remain the short 2566 for overnight short term technical trend trading position.

The short term technical trend indicator will sometimes hold more than 1 week if there is a good trend or else readers traders may keep seeing multiple trades that can be profit trades or losing trades. There were a lot of multiple losing trades in last 3 months (so, be prepared if you wish to be a technical trend trader - do not over trade) and therefore it was bad months and wish that this month is getting better.

5pm Remain Short 2566 Unless Above 2586

The short 2566 in hourly key indicator will hold on unless cpo futures price is traded above 2586 at 5pm today. The last hour trading range had been 2575 high to 2558 low and traded 2562 at 4pm. Thus, the 5pm stop and reverse buy signal has been affected slightly and adjusted 1 tick higher to above 2586.

NOTE: The profit taking targets will not be stated in this blog and therefore it is up to readers traders own greed in profit taking strategy. I will only provide the stop and reverse trade signals in every trading hour in advance at my best effort.  

Palm Oil Futures 4pm Trade Signal May06

After turning sell 2566 at 1130am this morning, cpo futures prices had traded in the range of 2579 high and 2564 low. The hourly key indicator will keep holding the short 2566 if cpo futures is traded below 2585 at 4pm later afternoon. Thus, cut loss turn buy if cpo futures is traded 2585 or higher at 4pm today.

NOTE: Due to a possible lower low or higher high from 3pm to 4pm against the last trading hour in the morning, the hourly key indicator will probably be affected on its 4pm stop and reverse trade signal and there will be no time available to provide my comment in advance in this blog. Therefore, there is a possible change of stop and reverse trade signal that had been given in advance by me and readers traders must take own kind of risk as mentioned in the Disclaimer of this blog about the risk warning.

1130am CPO Futures Sell 2566

The hourly key indicator had finally cut loss and turned selling at 1130am just now. It incurred 24 ticks losses against the long 2590 and turned selling 2566 at the day low. The accumulated profit for the month of May has been reduced to 41 ticks now after deducting the 15 ticks of losses.

The hourly key indicator will hold on the short 2566 from now on unless the cpo futures price is closed above 2586 at 1230pm in the next one hour trading session. So, readers traders should know that once the cpo futures is closed above 2586 at 1230pm, they have no choice to cut loss and turn long again at 1230pm; or else,  hold on the short to the next trading session in the afternoon 4pm which I will give my comment again one hour in advance before 4pm.

Palm Oil Futures 1130am Trade Signal May06

The hourly key indicator for short term technical trend trading was remained long 2590 at 6pm close yesterday because the closing price 2583 was above the stop and reverse sell signal 2581 as stated in the previous post.

The 1130am trade signal will be the same as yesterday 6pm that is sell crude palm oil futures once the last traded price at 1130am is below 2581 today. It will be a cut loss and turn sell trading position if the futures is triggered with the stop and reverse sell at 1130am.

Fundamental record based on Bloomberg news: Indonesia produced 26 million tons in 2013, according to the Jakarta-based Indonesian Palm Oil Association, estimating 30 million tons if no El Nino, said Franky Widjaja, chief executive officer of Golden Agri-Resources Ltd.

Sell Palm Oil If 6pm Is Below 2581

As mentioned in previous post, update and comment may not be available due to time limitation. There is also no update when the stop and reverse trade signal is remained far away. 

Before the 5pm trade, the stop and reverse sell signal at 5pm is below 2580, but now it has been adjusted higher by 1 tick for 6pm trade. 

Therefore, CPO futures hourly key indicator will cut loss and turn sell once the futures market is closed below 2581 at 6pm today. Or else, remain the long 2590.

A Month Of Hourly STC Update

It is quite a long time I did not provide the update on hourly technical trend indicators due to time limitation in write up. However, I will try for this month of May for readers traders to learn that technical trend indicators can be read in advance so that decision can be made when time come for buying or selling.

As a start, the hourly technical trend indicator will do a stop and reverse sell once 5pm is traded below 2580 today. The hourly technical trend indicator will be named as key indicator in the blog for the trading. 

6pm update will be given after 5pm but before 6pm market close, so that reader trader can have time to decide what position to be taken at 6pm. It is still remained long 2590 at present when this blog is published. I will try update every hour in advance if time is permitted and wish readers traders like it but no promise for next month.

Please take note that the hourly key indicator did take a good profit of 65 tick at 2590 on 2/5/2014 @ 5pm where it turned buying 2590 against the selling 2655 few days ago. So, it is basically started with a profit of 65 ticks in early of this month for CPO futures short term technical trend trading.