What they said...
...Historically, a severe El Nino would result in a 10%-15% drop in CPO production volume, and a 30%-40% increase in average selling prices.
However, the upward pressures would likely be countered by the narrowing of the gap between the prices of soybean oil and CPO.
Soybean oil is a substitute for CPO and a good harvest in major producer the US, which is forecast to export 1.75 billion pounds of soybean oil in 2014, has pushed the price of soybean oil down, shrinking the premium over CPO prices to an average of US$91 a ton in January-May 2014 from US$244/ton in 2013, according to data compiled by Bloomberg...
source: The Star newspaper