29oct2010 - CPO buy if 6pm 3073 or higher

Hourly CPO Futures remain sell 3062 unless 6pm close 3073 and above.

29oct2010 - CPO buy if 5pm 3072 or higher

Hourly CPO futures remain sell 3062 unless 4pm hit 3072 or higher.

29oct2010 - CPO sell 3062 at 1230pm

Hourly CPO futures cut loss turn sell 3062 at 1230pm. It will turn buy if 4pm at 3070 or higher. This month will be a losing month for technical trading based on hourly cpo indicator in this blog.

29oct2010 - CPO sell if 1230pm 3064 or lower

Hourly CPO will turn sell if 1230pm at 3064 or lower, otherwise remain hold the buying 3064.

29oct2010 - CPO buy 3064 remain unless 1130am 3051 or lower

Hourly CPO will cut loss turn sell if 1130am 3051 or lower. Target Profit remain 3124 and 3144.

28oct2010 - CPO buy 3064 remain unless 6pm close 3047 or lower

Hourly CPO futures maintain buy 3064 unless 6pm close 3047 or lower. If closing above 3084, cpo futures will be looking 3100 and above tomorrow with target 3124 and 3144.

28oct2010 - CPO buy 3064 will break 3084?

Hourly CPO Futures may see a crucial price at 3084 which is 20 points away from the buying 3064 at 1230pm today. The cpo price 3084 was the high on 25oct2010 which is a new high of the year too, if it can be broken, cpo price will be easily go up to 3100 or above with target 3124 today.

28oct2010 - FBM KLCI Sell on rally based on daily chart

(This is a feedback to a reader of cpofutures blog - title: Trend is a function of time - Daily FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI ( FBM KLCI ) chart with indicator like RSI had repeated same pattern of trend in July 2006 and July 2010...)

As Index Futures, FKLI, in Bursa Malaysia Derivatives technically moves in tandem with FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI or FBM KLCI which is considered as the cash market for FKLI. Therefore, judging on FBM KLCI trend may directly help to forecast the FKLI trend also.

Since the FBM KLCI provides a clearer picture for comment on market trend for the lesson, it is easy to help technical traders especially novice traders to improve their skill by referring the chart pattern which is always repeated itself so that they learn to follow a trend more confidently, and if they miss a trend, they still can learn to catch another trend of correction which allows to pocket some good money.

28oct2010 - CPO buy 3064 at 1230pm

Hourly CPO Futures cut loss and turn buy at 3064 at 1230pm with a 9 ticks loss and total 93 ticks for this month. Judging on the date, this month will be a losing month for hourly cpo futures trading.

CPO futures will turn sell if 4pm cpo price at 3040 or lower.

28oct2010 - CPO buy if 1230pm 3049 or higher.

Hourly CPO Futures will turn buy if 1230pm close 3049 or higher.

Lesson - Trend is a function of time

Trend is a function of time and why? In my opinion, majority traders succeed accumulating wealth through cpo futures trading because they managed to catch good trends which they always patiently waited for a right timing to maximise their profit. 

Therefore, timing is a main important skill you need to sharpen it with discipline and take a period of time to gauge trading experience on futures products. For example, Daily FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI ( FBM KLCI ) chart with indicator like RSI had repeated same pattern of trend in July 2006 and July 2010 which many still missed such a trend.

However, the main topic here is since you miss a trend and how you are going to deal with it. FBM KLCI this round has been run up more than 3 months and if you based the bar chart with indicator, it has long overdue for a 'sharp correction?!' even though now is hard to judge how low will it go as it needs to be monitored on every day especially on the closing price to confirm its correction. 

Here it may be a opportunity to sell better than buy now where the risk reward is much better if you count on the daily bar. Daily bar had also been run more than normally a trend go which mean now is time to ride on the correction trend to accumulate wealth. 

28oct2010 - CPO price buy if 1130am at 3057 or higher

Hourly CPO Futures will turn buy if 1130am cpo price is 3057 or higher. Yesterday 3055 stop order may sometime help protect some profit but it is a double edged sword which mean you may miss a bigger trend. Therefore, stop order must be used wisely since trend is a function of time and need to be read accordingly to your own indicator.

27oct2010 - CPO price sell 3055 remain unless 6pm close 3063 or higher

Hourly cpo price may have triggered a stop order at 3035 if you place your order at 3035 according to the earlier comment. If you didn't place such order just now, you can place it again to protect your profit in case you don't want to take another overnight risk. Cpo will turn buy if 6pm close 3063 or higher.

27oct2010 - CPO price sell 3055 remain

Hourly cpo price hit 3010 low which is more than 40 points of 3055 selling price. It will only turn buy if 5pm at 3071 or higher. A stop order may now be placed at 3035 to profit take if trader is not confidence with such a short term down trend. Daily technical indicator remain holding buy that withhold short term seller to be too aggressive after seeing high of 3084.

27oct2010 - CPO price sell 3055 remain unless 4pm at 3074 or higher

Hourly cpo prices will remain weak based on hourly indicator unless it can go above 3074 at 4pm. News on India may cut import of edible oils may give some pressures on selling also.

27oct2010 - 1230pm Hourly CPO Futures will remain sell

Hourly CPO price at 1130am was 3032 which was more than 20 points lower than 3055 the selling price. Hourly cpo futures will only cut loss turn buy if 1230pm at 3079 or higher which is hard to reach in such a tight range market activity.

Lesson - Dalian-CBOT-BMD

After getting feedbacks from readers, please be informed that this blog is mainly targeting on Crude Palm Oil futures trading in Bursa Malaysia Derivatives with technical analysis as the main contributor for updates and commentaries. Dalian's RBD Palm Olein and CBOT's grains like Soybean and Soybean Oil will not be the main concern in this blog. 

This website was initiated in year 2005, but only started publishing in blog recently with target mainly on general public and new comers in crude palm oil futures trading to learn the basics of futures trading. 

Novice traders always get carried away when there is too much information for them to start trading and this blog has played an important role to help them start trading with discipline by just reading technical indicator to gauge the momentum of the market and follow the trend. Some major fundamental data in cpo futures trading has also been included here for traders to refer and may be doing more on their own research using these data for better trading strategy. Books and trading softwares are available here for purchasing online for the ease and convenience. 

Remember: Discipline, Discipline, Discipline.

27oct2010 - 1130am Hourly CPO Futures will remain sell

Hourly cpo prices remain below 3055 yesterday and this more or less had been affected short term bearish sign for the indicator. Therefore, first hour will remain sell unless 1130am at 3078 or higher.

26oct2010 - 6pm Hourly CPO Futures Price may remain sell

Hourly cpo prices remain below 3055 since turning sell at 1130am today, therefore, it is considered that even at 6pm, cpo futures will remain sell unless cpo price can close 3082 or higher which is near to yesterday high.

Lesson - Calculated Risk

How to establish a calculated risk in futures trading?

When you start trading in futures market, your broker will always ask you to place a 'stop loss' order. However, it is very common your stop loss order will be based on your margin available in your account especially when you trade with little margin. This is to protect you from over loss when market is against you.

In general, majority of smart cpo futures traders will know how to set their calculated risk so as to minimise the losses. Here, if you are a novice trader, you must establish a strategy on such a calculated risk method in consistent with your trading. Technical trading all have their own strategy of calculated risk precisely stated unlike fundamental trading.

Therefore, it is good to learn how to trade with technical indicators for a start. Buy some technical analysis books to learn how a technical book helps you maximise profits and limit your losses. The books should be able to teach you all the basics of technical trading. For example, when is the indicator sell mean you are either profit take turn sell or cut loss turn sell. Remember to calculate the profit and loss over a period of time to prove that the indicator is capable to help you accumulate wealth.

26oct2010 - 1230pm CPO Futures remain sell 3055

Hourly cpo futures will only cut loss and turn buy if 4pm at 3081 or higher. Losses have been kept reducing to 84 ticks for this month so far. Judging on the month to month basis, the cpo hourly indicator still performed badly for this month, and it is believed that the coming 2 months will have a better bet as the indicator had been performed very well every year in total for the past 10 years since the data was being collected.

26oct2010 - CPO Futures sell 3055 at 1130am

Hourly CPO Futures take profit and turn sell at 3055 at 1130am. The hourly indicator will only turn buy if 1230pm at 3079 or above.

26oct2010 - 1130am Hourly CPO Futures may turn sell

Hourly cpo futures at 1130am may turn sell but must based on any new high above 3084 to decide the selling price. Therefore, if high is 3084 for the 1st hour of trading, cpo futures sell if 1130am at 3069 or lower, and assume that high hit 3101, cpo futures sell if 1130am at 3085 or lower. Here, you may base on any 15 points lower of the new high will make the hourly cpo futures to profit take and turn sell at 1130am.

26oct2010 - Hourly CPO Futures Target 3081, 3101 or 3121

Hourly CPO Futures had since been long at 3001 at 1230pm on 22 Oct with good profit in forecast. However, to maximise a profit, targets must be set and it is now at 3081, 3101 and 3121 based on the hourly indicator strategy for this round of trade as the market already approaching a very high overbought zone in such a short term trend.

25oct2010 - Start Target 3101

25oct2010 - CPO sell if 6pm 3062 or lower

Hourly CPO Futures may take profit and turn sell if 6pm close 3062 or lower. Therefore, 3rd month cpo futures contract needs to sustain above 3062 so that tomorrow will only have the chance to hit its 100 points target at 3101.

25oct2010 - Can CPO Futures Sell Down Below 3050 at 5pm Today

Hourly CPO Futures created another new high above 3080 in the afternoon session. Hourly profit will be remain good for this trade with its breaking 80 points of profit target at 3081 even though the hourly technical indicator is now at overbought zone. With such momentum, next target of 3101 may be in the making for late evening today, or tomorrow morning session if soybean oil up in tandem.

25oct2010 News - Billion-dollar trade war fuels vegetable oil politics

The US$40 billion (RM124.4 billion) global palm oil trade makes up almost 60 per cent of the world's vegetable oils market. The bigger the palm oil industry becomes, the easier it is a target for smear campaigns by rivals via political means.

This is evident as Malaysia and Indonesia capture more market share in the vegetable oils trade, faster than rivals in Europe and North America, oil palm planters have had to endure false allegations of massive deforestation and lies about orangutan killings from western environmental non-governmental organisations (WENGOs).

Every year, Malaysia earns around US$20 billion (RM62.2 billion) and Indonesia US$15 billion (RM46.65 billion), from selling 32 million tonnes of palm oil all over the world, data from industry regulators of both countries revealed.

Oil World, a trade journal, confirmed that last year, Malaysia and Indonesia shipped out the bulk of 36.8 million tonnes of palm oil or 58 per cent of the 63.5 million tonnes of vegetable oils traded globally.

Soyabean, rapeseed and sunflower oils, however, commanded 26 per cent of market share.

Oil World's data show that while the vegetable oils market had doubled in size since 1990, people around the world have chosen palm oil over other oils. Among 17 major vegetable oils traded in the world, palm oil consumption exceeded soft oils like soyabean, rapeseed and sunflower.

Oil World stated that in the last two decades, global palm oil consumption expanded three times. Rapeseed oil purchase, however, only increased by 2.5 times and soyabean oil's popularity just doubled.

While global palm oil usage increased, so has the smear campaigns on oil palm planting.

In recent months, Australian zoos initiated a "Don't palm us off" campaign claiming oil palm plantings in Malaysia and Indonesia caused forest destruction of the equivalent of 300 soccer fields every hour and decimation of over 1,000 orangutans a year. Zoo visitors were told to petition to the Food Standards of Australia and New Zealand to label palm oil on all food products.

When asked to comment, Sarawak Land Development Minister Datuk Seri Dr James Jemut Masing said: "It's not true, we do not kill and eat orangutans. It is a taboo to do that. Sarawak thrives on eco-tourism, it is in our interests to protect our national treasures. I spent 10 days and nine nights trekking at Lanjak Entimau National Park. There were many orangutans swinging from tree to tree."

He said orangutans are not found throughout the state. These primates are only found in the Lanjak Entimau Wildlife Sanctuary, Maludam and Batang Ai National Parks. No development can take place in these three zones since they are already gazetted as totally protected.

"Therefore, it is not possible for oil palm plantations to encroach into virgin forests," he told Business Times in an interview in Kuching.

On top of that, Malaysia's environmental laws and Malaysian Palm Oil Board regulations designate oil palms to be planted on degraded land that had been subjected to extensive shifting cultivation and logged-over forest.

Oil palm cultivation has actually transformed many rural villagers' lives.

"It is through planting of oil palm trees and selling of fresh fruit bunches that smallholders can save enough money for their children to further their tertiary education and become successful professionals. We have palm oil exports to thank for this," he said.

Estates in Malaysia plant oil palm, rubber and cocoa trees to produce cooking oil, margarine, rubber gloves and cocoa butter for global trade. This is part of the same early-stage growth pattern adopted by every major developed economy in the world, from North America to Europe.

"Now, the very same people who have already achieved developed status, cite fear that such development in Asia will exacerbate ecological degradation and global warming. The European Union (EU) argue against tropical forest conversion for oil palm and rubber tree planting," Masing noted.

In pushing for a halt in oil palm plantation expansion in Malaysia and Indonesia, European lawmakers and WENGOs had repeatedly said clearing of tropical forests harms biodiversity and emits carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, worsening global climate change.

"Many people believe Greenpeace, Friends of the Earth and Wetlands International are protectors of the world's forests but ... let me ask you ... are they bringing their own governments to justice for clear-cutting temperate forests?

"Are they lobbying for reforestation of deciduous forests in their own countries? Are these activists completely altruistic and selfless in their devotion to the world's forest, wildlife and indigenous people?" Masing asked.

He then adduced reports of Sarawak government spending RM10 million every year to care for and protect orangutans.

While WENGOs campaigned passionately for the fate of orangutans, until today, they had not contributed any money for the rehabilitation of orangutans and the upkeep of their sanctuaries at Maludam, Lanjak Entimau and Batang Ai.

"I wish they would walk their talk."

By criticising the virtues of oil palm planting and ignoring the evidence that economic development leads to better environmental protection, Masing said it is questionable whether these WENGOs' true commitment is to the environment or to erection of trade barriers to benefit European rapeseed farmers who are already heavily-subsidised by the EU government.

He then cited findings at www.farmsubsidy.org, run by a European journalists grouping that tracks the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) beneficiaries.

For the past 50 years, European farmers had benefited from an exceptional set of protection and subsidies. From 1995 to 2010, the cumulative budget expenditures for European farmers had been in order of more than ?600 billion (RM2.5 trillion).

The CAP acts like a tariff wall around the EU by blocking agricultural imports out while keeping prices higher in the EU.

Although the EU has gradually reduced subsidies to farmers in recent years, at an average of ?55 billion (RM238.15 billion) a year or 42 per cent of the CAP's budget, it remains the world's largest agricultural support scheme.

On top of that, there are also export subsidies for EU-based food multinationals like Unilever, Nestle and Danone. Last year, the EU spent about ?350 million (RM1.5 billion) on export subsidies.

Masing then argued that the EU government's covert use of taxpayer funds to facilitate environment activists to lobby against the growth of oil palm plantations, in the name of "saving rainforests", is a blatant violation of international norms and Malaysia's sovereignty.

"We see these activists holding demonstrations claiming to save rainforests. But are there independent audits to determine the effects of these WENGOs policies and practices on the orangutans and my fellow Bumiputeras they claim to be helping?"

"Who are better placed to speak on behalf of the poor, voiceless and marginalised? The WENGOs and their local affiliates self-proclaiming to be stakeholders or our elected Members of Parliament?" he asked.

He described the WENGOs as whistleblowers, judge and jury, all rolled into one - a stark contrast to check and balance that elected Parliamentarians face.

Masing then referred to the European Commission website at http://ec.europa.eu/environment/funding/intro_en.htm, which revealed the Directorate-General for the Environment had, in the last 10 years, handed out over ?66 million (RM285 million) to green NGOs.

In 1998, the EU funding to these NGOs was just over ?2 million (RM8.66 million) but last year, the amount nearly topped ?9 million (RM350 million).

These fundings were advanced by European corporates and labour unions in an effort to protect domestic rapeseed oil farming which, in turn, receive massive CAP subsidies, Masing noted.

- courtesy of Business Time, By Ooi Tee Ching

Lesson - Trader's Credo

Trader's Credo


To be a pro and smart trader
I always look for opportunity, not security
I will take the calculated risk to fail and to succeed
I will never choose to be just a normal trader
It's my right to be a successful trader.

Knowing trading is a mean to accumulate wealth.
I will exercise extreme discipline
As trend is my friend
I must maximise the profit and stop loss fast.
Dare to have more losing trades than winning trades.

Knowing my limit, honour it
Resist the greed of over trading
Sit tight by virtue of patience
Be proud and unafraid to tell the world
I have done a good trade.

25oct2010 - SGS Oct1-25 at 1.09mil vs 1.08mil

SGS palm oil export figures for Oct1-25 at 1.09mil vs 1.08mil MT.

25oct2010 - Target 3101 or above?

Hourly CPO buying at 3001 will carry another good profit with target 3101 of its 100 points target. If it reaches its target, the losses of the month will be substantially reduced.

25oct2010 - Intertek Oct1-25 at 1.12mil or down 4.7%

Palm oil export figures from Intertek is at 1.11mil vs 1.16mil last month.

25oct2010 - CPO sell if 1130am 2993 or lower

Hourly CPO will cut loss and turn sell if 1130am is 2993 or lower, otherwise remain buy at 3001 which was triggered on last Friday 1230pm. Eye on cpo export figures from intertek and sgs today.

22oct2010 - CPO cut loss and turn sell if 6pm 2996 or lower

Hourly CPO almost turned selling at 5pm at 2989 but since it closed at 2991, it remains buying at 3001 unless 6pm close 2996 or lower ( which is higher compare to 5pm hourly indicator earlier ).

22oct2010 - CPO sell if 5pm 2989 or lower

Hourly CPO will turn sell if 5pm at 2989 or lower, otherwise remain buy at 3001.

22oct2010 - CPO cut loss and buy 3001 at 1230pm

Hourly CPO cut loss and turn buy at 1230pm at 3001, choppy trade. It will cut loss and turn sell again if 4pm at 2991 or lower.

Lesson - Trading Plan

A: what is L ?
B: L is long ( see page - " CPO Hourly Indicator " )... we deal with mat salleh...they like long or short...
A: ic
B: we asian always short ma they say
A: haha
B: Tehnical indicator is like your girl friend b4 get marriage...like stochastic indicator in this blog in page "CPO Hourly Indicator", a lot of people don't know how to use...
B: indicator need to be learned in a very simple way, but people teach wrong way...
B: so let it be, so that only we trader can make money lo
A: haha...true, we all still hv a habit of....take fast profit, let losses run
B: every trader must build own trading rhythm...you and him cannot have same rhythm so that both of you can succeed on your own way
B: tell him more discipline will do... when he get discipline, his rhythm is back.
B: you also, build ur discipline...you are a potential trader to succeed in this line, i think so.
A: ok
B: in short term trading...kill this - "mindset is sell, hard to turn buy"
A: ic
B: but specialise in one indicator first. Mean...master only 1 or 2 indicator only...dont learn to many
B: just like - fall in love with ur indicator like fall in love with a girl...see why it "change this change that" to attract u...
A: haha
B: when u have too many indicators to read, it is like u hv too many girls...too much distraction already...one ask u buy, one ask u sell, one in between...so HOW!!!
A: fainted...
B: ya, and your rhythm will be out....
B: build ur discipline and it can build ur rhythm... trading is a kind of business also...need time to build ur business network.
B: so, indicator is your business network...indicator is your discipline.
B: if indicators tell buy, buy...
B: indicator only tell u buy or sell....no wait or see how... but when u build ur discipline already, after sell or buy, with trend, u can then wait and see how to maximise profit with the indicator
B: so, from now, eat and sleep with ur indicator la
A: haha
B: read back all the level...why and when turn buy, how long it being turn long, how high indicator ever go...vice versa
B: how many days it already turned short...u can even test on short term chart like hourly...which u can see more things like in my page " CPO Hourly Indicator "
B: when u build up ur base already...then when u see other chart with this indicator...u can feel the market momentum too.
A: k...

22oct2010 - CPO sell 2988 at 1130am

Hourly CPO take profit turn sell at 2988 at 1130am, with profit of 68 points per contract in this single trade. Losses of this month has been reduced to 125 ticks. If 1230pm close 2995 or higher, Hourly CPO will cut loss and turn buy.

22oct2010 - CPO sell if 1130am 2990 or lower

Hourly CPO may take profit turn sell if 1130am close last 2990 or lower. It turned buying since 4pm on 19oct at 2920.

21oct2010, Target Hit 3020, 6pm sell if close 2982.

Hourly CPO hit a 100 points target at 3020 and retraced. If the price remains 20 points shy away from new high, chances to take profit and turn selling is gaining the momentum. Since 5pm is very hard to turn sell which is a below 2980, then hourly CPO may turn sell at 6pm with a higher level. If 5pm close at 2993, hourly CPO may  turn sell when 6pm close 2982 or lower.

Lesson - Technical vs Fundamental

If you are a small speculator in CPO futures trading, the access of fundamentals data and news will always be the last to receive or you won't have the first hand information, so to say. Therefore, what should you do to have a success trading in CPO Futures?

In my opinion, if you, as a novice trader, need to back up yourself certain technical skill of how to read technical indicators like moving averages, relative strength index, stochastic before you start trading. Do not ever follow broker's advice or other trader you know to trade as you may not have the same emotion or psychology on discipline that they have.

CPO Fundamentals data that always being closely watched by majority traders have been placed in this blog for you to refer and I think it is enough for you to learn as the beginner. Fundamentals data allows you to digest how are the major players try to do hedge for their next trading strategies after those data being released. 

21oct2010 - Target 3020 or above?

Hourly CPO this round of buying may contribute a good profit to reduce its overall losses for this month of 193 ticks so far. 100 points profit target is 3020 should be a good start for profit taking and also for each and every 20 points level higher.

20oct2010 - CPO remain hold buy 2920 at 5pm

Hourly CPO seems can sit on the profit for tomorrow higher target if it can break above 2961 and 2977.

20oct2010 - CPO remain hold buy 2920 at 4pm

Hourly CPO can start setting target again after move up in its buying level since 4pm yesterday. First target 2960, second 2980 and third 3000. It seems very hard to turn sell at 5pm today already which is way below 2900.

20oct2010 - CPO sell if 4pm 2899 or lower

Hourly CPO remain buy at 2920 and will only sell if 4pm below 2900. Palm oil cargo surveyor, SGS, said Oct 1-20 palm oil export up5 over percent at 929k MT.

If buying 2920 can sustain, target 2960 can be reached in near term since the hourly indicator didn't turn sell this morning. The 25 average cut loss point at 2895 can be set to protect unwanted losses.

20oct2010 - CPO sell if 1230pm 2904 or lower

Hourly CPO remain Buy at 2920 unless 1230pm close 2904 or lower. Export figures seem support the market well even Dalian was down before CPO futures opening.

20oct2010 - A day to remember - Futures involves Risk

Futures involve risk; thus, know the risk before start to trade CPO Futures. Learn some technical trading systems that suit CPO futures trading and a DIY approach to develop own strategy to trade. The blog is the memoirs of all CPO Futures players who help to make the industry growing.

Since CPO futures trading was launched in 1980. Technology had closed the gap of communication problem and made trading more sophisticated and mature, All futures players may use this blog as a basic guide to know more about CPO futures trading.

Instead of just teaching new clients about CPO Futures one by one, this blog may promote more participation from general public who may have interest to trade but cannot get detail information from brokers or they worry to start trading without proper understanding about the market.

Recommendations kept in this blog for future reference on CPO Futures trading may help more people being motivated to do more researches about the market and help the industry to reach at the top of the world of futures market.

20oct2010 - CPO sell if 1130am 2901 or lower

Hourly CPO will cut loss and turn sell if 1130am close at 2901 or lower. Intertek Oct 1-20 palm oil export at 947k MT vs 907k MT last month, up 4 over percent. Dalian RBD Palm Olein future down 80s before cpo futures here open.

20oct2010 - Oil tumbles as dollar up after China surprise rates hike

Crude oil prices in Nymex for November contract month tumbles $3.59 or 4.32 percent at $79.49 as a stronger dollar hit the commodities market making dollar denominated oil more expensive. China central bank, People's Bank of China, raised interest rate to slow its economy from overheating on its property prices and inflation at 5.56% from 5.31%.

With such a bearish sentiment, cpo futures will be affected unless the Oct1-20 palm oil export is much better than expected earlier.

19oct2010 - Remain Buy 2920 unless 6pm close 2902 or lower

Hourly CPO will remain holding buy unless it closes 2902 or lower at 6pm. Eye on tomorrow export figures which is expected to be lower than last month. Any figure that above expectation will have a knee jerk reaction to push cpo price higher.

news - Oct.1-20 palm oil export will likely fall 9% to 12%

KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)--Malaysia''s palm oil exports in the Oct. 1-20 period will likely fall 9% to 12% from a month earlier, to 800,000 metric tons, several trading executives said Tuesday. 

Cargo surveyor Intertek Agri Services estimated Sept. 1-20 exports at 906,688 tons, while SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. put the figure at 881,812 tons. 

Both surveyors will issue Oct. 1-20 export data Wednesday. 

courtesy of Dow Jones Newswires; +603 2026 1233; shie-lynn.lim@dowjones.com 

19oct2010 - Buy 2920 at 4pm

Hourly CPO take profit and turn buy at 2920 at 4pm. Here, you need to cover your short in December and Buy  January contract which is the active month now. Hourly CPO will only cut loss and turn sell if 5pm close at 2902 or lower. Accumulated losses is reduced but still considered high, therefore, market seems promising to buy and make good profit this round even though fundamentals news look weak.

19oct2010 - Buy if 1130am 2908

Hourly CPO will turn buy if 4pm at 2908 or higher. CPO last close 2913 at 1230pm. Fundamental news remain weak with higher output and weakening export demand.

19oct2010 - Buy if 1230pm 2916 or higher

Hourly CPO will probably take profit and turn buy if 1230pm at 2916 or higher.

19oct2010 - Buy if 1130am at 2930

Hourly CPO will cut loss turn buy if 1130am at 2930 or higher. Dalian palm oil up and e-CBOT also up since early morning. The profit of selling 2934dec on 14oct at 4pm may have been reduced if there is no profit take at the early 40 and 60pts target which at 2894 and 2874 dec respectively.

Output of 15% higher in October month may have been discount if world commodities remain bullish.

18oct2010 - 6pm Buy if close 2934 and above.

Hourly cpo indicator adjusted lower ( previously above 2940 ) to turn buy if 6pm close at 2934 or higher. Cpo must close higher near to high or near to selling price of 2934, then only bullish sign will turn back.

18oct2010 - 5pm Buy if at 2946 or higher.

Hourly cpo remain at 2934, it will only turn buy if 5pm at 2946 or higher which seems difficult to reach at 5pm with market sentiment on higher production figure.

news: Vegetable Oils Markets Overpriced, Correction Due

[Dow Jones] Recent rally in global vegetable oils market amid weather, supply concerns considered overdone, when compared with oil prices, indicating further correction in vegoil prices, says Lan Chen, economist at agribusiness consultancy firm LMC International. Notes MPOB end-month palm oil inventory levels may peak at 2.25 million tons, without giving timeframe; adds CPO output to "be strong in 2011." Chen predicts CPO prices may trade at MYR2,500-MYR2,600/ton next year. US soyoil $100 overpriced in biodiesel market, "may place downward pressure on soyoil and in turn, pressure palm oil prices lower," Chen says at industry conference. Palm oil moves in tandem with soyoil as both compete for similar export destinations, including China, India. New benchmark January contract trading MYR44 lower at MYR2,892/ton. (shie-lynn.lim@dowjones.com)

18oct2010 - Remain Hold SELL unless 4pm 2956 or higher.

18oct2010 - Hit 2 targets at 2894 and 2874

Hourly CPO (Dec) hit 40 and 60 points target at 2894 and 2874, positions still remain in December contract even though 3rd active month is January contract. Remain holding sell at 2934 unless 1230pm Jan close at 2960 which is very high compare to the price at below 2900 now. Dalian Palm Oil Price hit downward today brought down cpo futures price in BMD.

18oct2010 - 3rd active month is January Contract now, buy if Jan 2951 at 1130am

Hourly CPO is now following January contract for its indicator, since Jan and Dec price difference is not much, it is not much affecting the indicator. So if 1130am Jan contract at 2951 or higher, hourly CPO cut loss the Dec contract and turn buy at Jan contract.

15oct2010 - CPO buy if 6pm at 2954 or higher.

Hourly CPO will cut loss and turn buy if 6pm close 2954 and above.

15oct2010 - Oil Palm Replanting Fund

Budget day - Malaysia To Start MYR297 Mln Oil Palm Replanting Fund.

15oct2010 - remain sell 2934 unless 5pm 2955 or higher.

Hourly CPO buy if 5pm only at 2955 or higher. It remains sell at 2934 even SGS Export 606k MT is better than ITS or Intertek. Today Budget day - Next year''s crude palm oil production may rise 3.4% to 18.4 million tons on improving yields, increased mature areas in major palm producing states Sabah, Sarawak. Government forecasts Malaysia GDP growth at 7% In 2010, 5%-6% in 2011

15oct2010 - SGS Oct1-15 Palm Oil Export 606k MT

SGS Oct1-15 Palm Oil Export is 606k MT.

15oct2010 - CPO buy if 4pm at 2959 or higher.

Hourly CPO will cut loss and turn buy if 4pm at 2959 or higher. Another surveyor, SGS (Malaysia) Bhd., is expected to issue its estimate later in the day which I believe will be almost the same figures as cargo surveyor Intertek Agri Services at 590k MT.

15oct2010 - remain sell 2934 unless 1230pm close 2966

Hourly CPO indicator will only cut loss and turn buy if 1230pm close 2966 or above.

15oct2010 - remain sell 2934. Export 590k MT from Intertek

Oct. 1-15 palm oil exports fell 9.6% compared with the first half of September, at 590,480 metric tons, cargo surveyor Intertek Agri Services said Friday. Hourly cpo remains sell at 2934 since 4pm yesterday. The Hourly Indicator can't turn buy even it closes at 2970 at 1130am today.

14oct2010 - Buy if 6pm 2964 or higher.

Hourly cpo will only turn buying if 6pm close 2964 or higher, otherwise remain hold selling at 2934. Eye on tomorrow Intertek and SGS export figures which seem to be lower than last month.

14oct2010 - Buy if 5pm 2949 or higher.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore to tighten policy helped accelerate broad U.S. dollar weakness...this news may have prompted a sell down of palm oil at 3pm opening. Now cpo remain sell unless cpo can trade 2949 or above at 5pm.

14oct2010 - Sell at 4pm 2934

Hourly CPO take profit turn sell at 2934 at 4pm.

14oct2010 - Sell if 4pm 2934 or lower.

After hitting new high of 2970 of the year, hourly cpo may turn sell if 4pm at 2934 or lower.

14oct2010 - First 40pts at 2962 hit.

Hourly cpo remain holding buy at 2922 and hit first target of 40pts at 2962.

13oct2010 - Remain Buy 2922

Hourly CPO remain buy at 2922 since 4pm unless 6pm close 2900 or lower.

13oct2010 - Buy 2922 at 4pm

Hourly CPO buy 2922 at 4pm. So far this month has a accumulated loss of more than 200pts. Thus, it seems that the buying price will sustain with good profit to come.

13oct2010 - remain sell 2895 at 1230pm

Hourly cpo almost cut loss and turn buying at 1230pm again after trading above 2910 few times before selling down to close at 2900 at 1230pm. Cpo buy if 4pm is 2912 or above now.

13oct2010 - remain sell 2895 at 1130am

Hourly cpo almost cut loss and turn buy at 1130am as the indicator showed that if 1130am at 2915 or above, cpo would turn buying. Cpo did tested high 2925 which was above 2915 at the first hour of trading at Bursa Malaysia Derivatives, BMD. However, CPO WILL TURN BUY IF 1230pm CLOSE 2910 OR ABOVE.

12oct2010 - Sell 2895 at 1230pm

12oct2010 - Sell 2895 at 1230pm. loss of 22 pts. Cpo will turn buy if 4pm 2913 or higher.

11oct2010 - Buy 2917 at 1230pm.

Hourly cpo cut loss turn buy at 2717 at 1230pm today. It is the biggest losses ever seen by me for this year. Total 151 points. Dalian Palm Oil and CBOT soyoil hit the sky after USDA Friday report cut soybean ending stocks for 2010-11 by 24% to 265 million bushels, indicating tighter global supply outlook amid rising demand.

11oct2010 - remain sell 2766.

Based on high 2940, cpo remain sell at 2766 with a huge loss since it can't find its cut loss point at 1130am today. cpo will cut loss and turn buy if 1230pm close at 2896 or higher.

8oct2010 - sell 2766 at 4pm

8oct2010 - hourly CPO Futures sell 2766 at 4pm. will buy if 5pm 2796 or above, otherwise, hold short.

Target Hit

Since hourly cpo turned buy at 2686 at 5pm on 5 oct 2010, cpo price hit 2786, it 100 pts target today in just 2 days.