Friday 31 October 2014

The Worst Month Of The Year 2014

This is for those who did purchase "101indicators On Futures Trading" book...

The short term hourly technical trend trading experienced the worst month of the year of down 131 points due to the multiple losing trades and the floating profit that not recorded in October (carried forward to November). The total 10 months did record an accumulated profit of 895 points in following strictly on the stop and reverse trade signals. This is based on per contract size basis. It is more important to record the losses especially the multiple losing trades's losses while taking down those good profits.

Never over trading! Follow the rules.


Malaysia's palm stocks to ease in 2014, 2015 as demand picks up -MPOB

Here is some of the important figures that good to know...

Malaysian palm oil stocks could drop 14 percent by the end of 2014 from 2.09 million at the end of last month, a senior official of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) said, as export demand and domestic food and fuel needs pick up...Inventories are seen drawing down to 1.8 million tonnes by the end of the year, and are likely to end 2015 at 1.7 million tonnes, Ramli Abdullah, the head of the MPOB's economic unit, told an industry meeting in Kuala Lumpur on Friday...The industry regulator had previously pegged stocks to range between 1.6 million and 1.8 million tonnes at the end of 2014, lower than the 1.99 million tonnes piled up at the end of 2013.

Output in Malaysia is expected to rise to 20.5 million tonnes in 2015, Ramli said, in the absence of extreme weather that could hurt yields...Malaysia produced 14.66 million tonnes of crude palm oil between January and September, up 7 percent from a year earlier.

Exports of Malaysian palm oil were seen at 17.9 million tonnes in 2014, below forecasts for 18.5 million, but are expected to rise to 18.2 million in 2015...Malaysia exported 18.15 million tonnes of palm oil in 2013, with China, India, Pakistan and Europe taking the bulk of shipments.

Source: Reuters

Indicator Y - October Accumulated Profit Is 14 Points

It is just to confirmed in this post that the month of October only generate gross accumulated profit of 14 points since the long 2137 will definitely carry forward to next month November which bring along the floating profit. There will be no stop and reverse sell signal at 6pm today based on the hourly indicator Y trading guides.

Read back the trading rules again in the "learning corner" on the right column, the hourly indicator Y generated 4 stop and reverse trades for this October months, first +17 second -30 third -8 fourth +35, total sum is +14 in the trading profit and loss.

We only saw 2 losing trades which is not considered to be a multiple losing trades. Traders are therefore to be more careful to focus on the multiple losing trades that may happen to all kinds of technical trend indicators in short term trend trading. If traders can stand the heat of the multiple losing trades and can prove that the indicator has yearly good profit, traders should have found a good trading system.

Indicator Y - Long 2137 Stop Loss 2237

This stop loss order at 2237 does not mean that it will be a loss against the long 2137 (it is so clear that the long is below the stop loss price!), it is a profit to protect the long 2137 for traders who do have fear, this stop loss is initiated without following the hourly indicator Y trading guides!

The stop and reverse sell trade signal is getting higher above the long 2137 but it is still far below the 2237 stop loss and the current closing price 2291. Therefore, it is believed that 4pm and 5pm hourly indicator Y will not have a stop and reverse sell trade today.

6pm update will be available in advance if there is a clear sign that the stop and reverse sell signal of hourly indicator Y above 2237; otherwise, it is meant that the hourly indicator Y trading guides will hold on its bullish view and cpo futures prices may go beyond 2300.

Indicator Y - Long 2137 Day 8 Beyond 2300?

The long 2137 based on the hourly indicator Y reached its second target 2287 or 150 points level and cpo futures price was actually hit high 2302 yesterday. Can it reach the third target 2339 when cpo futures price is traded above 2300?

Unless cpo futures price is traded below 2200 level in morning trading session, it is believed that the hourly indicator Y will continue holding on its long 2137 since the stop and reverse sell trade signal is remained at very low level.

Update will be available one hour in advance if there is a clear sign of the stop and reverse sell signal on the hourly indicator Y.

Thursday 30 October 2014

Indicator Y - October Less Than 10 Points Profits?

The weak performance in the accumulated profit and loss for the month of October is based on the assumption that the long 2137 will be carried forward to the month of November and the profit will be only recorded in November, or in short, the trading profit and loss for the long 2137 will not be recorded in October.

Just check back all the updates in October, readers traders should be able to find that the gross accumulated profit was recorded at 14 points only. This is excluding the trading cost and bad filled prices that probably happened due to last seconds trades.

Unless the stop and reverse sell trade signal is triggered before the 6pm close tomorrow, we are expecting the accumulated profit in October will be less than 10 points per contract! (it is better to be under employment than to be a trader!!! This is not yet mentioned on when a trader is having bad months!!! No need to talk about good, it is better to talk about bad so that you are ready if you wish to be a trader.)

Indicator Y - Long 2137 Day 7 Target Beyond 2287?

Missing by just 1 point of target 2287 on the cpo futures high 2286 at opening had almost 150 points in its second profit target after the 101 points 2238 first target being hit yesterday.

If greed overcame fear yesterday, traders sit tight and let profit run, there will be an extra of nearly 50 points per contract today. Again, it is "if"... because if fear struck in yesterday, traders would take profit at 2238 without taking the hourly indicator Y rules. Greed had won today if traders greedy for better profit!

The hourly indicator Y long 2137 will remain in Day 7 today since price is getting higher and still no sign of stop and reverse sell trade signal. Go to the learning corner to read about the weaknesses of the indicator Y as it is important to the weaknesses!

Palm Oil Conference - Dorab Mistry, Thomas Mielke and James Fry

They are the three widely-followed and well-known edible oil analysts -Dorab Mistry, Thomas Mielke and James Fry - that we readers traders in CPO Futures blog need to know since they are the VIPs that always being invited to have their words in Palm Oil Conference.

Thomas Mielke had his comments being posted in previous post and here are all the news excerpts I get for readers traders to digest:

Dorab Mistry and Oil World have similar Malaysian palm oil market price outlooks for the coming month, with support being found near current levels, with futures expected to trade mostly in a 2,300-2,500 ringgit/tonne (~$700-$765/tonne) in the first quarter of 2015. Jan futures are currently trading at 2.263 ringgit/tonne ($692/tonne). The supportive market ideas are due to expectations for seasonal production and stocks declines over the coming months, as well as good veg oil demand from India and China, as well as better Malaysian domestic demand due to the increase in the country’s bio-diesel blend to 7% from 5% effective November 1. (news from rjomrt.com)

Prices of Malaysian crude palm oil may be capped at 2,300 ringgit ($704) if Brent crude prices fall to $85, leading industry analyst James Fry said on Wednesday. Fry, chairman of commodities consultancy LMC International, in September had forecast crude palm oil (CPO) prices to trade around $2,225 ringgit in February if Brent crude drops to $85 a barrel, or to jump to 2,465 ringgit if prices rise to $95 a barrel. "The recent strength of CPO prices has taken its EU premium over Brent to $100 and in Southeast Asia to $40, making unsubsidised biodiesel unprofitable," Fry told an industry conference in Kuala Lumpur. "If Brent settles at $85, 2,300 ringgit is the upside to local prices," he said. He added that declining Malaysian palm oil stocks will likely support the CPO premium over Brent in the next six months. Fry said as crude prices fall, OPEC exporters will likely boost output to maintain revenues, adding more pressure to both Brent and crude palm oil prices. However, he said export tax policies in the world's top palm growers Indonesia and Malaysia would help reinforce palm oil's competitiveness against Brent crude as a fuel feedstock. (news excerpts from Reuters)

Palm oil may rally as much as 10 percent by March as declining output in the world’s top producers depletes inventories, according to Dorab Mistry, director at Godrej International Ltd. “I believe the worst is over for oilseed farmers and plantations,” said Mistry, who’s traded palm oil for more than three decades. “After 10 December, I expect futures to rise steadily as production declines begin to bite and stocks decline. However, given the current macro economic outlook, I do not expect a bull market.”

Malaysia may produce between 19.6 million tons and 19.8 million tons this year, while Indonesian output may reach 30 million tons at best, he said, cutting his earlier forecasts for as much as 20 million tons and more than 30.5 million tons respectively. “Palm oil production is not performing to expectation and that is taking out some of the froth from production estimates, including my own,” Mistry said. “Palm oil production will not only enter its seasonal lean phase, it will also enter a new biological low cycle after November.”

Soybeans, soybean oil and meal prices have probably bottomed out, Mistry said. The next bout of bearishness may be seen only if the Brazilian crop shapes up well or if the U.S. yields are revised upwards of about 50 bushels per acre, he said. Soybean oil, an alternative to palm in food and fuel uses, tumbled to a five-year low of 31.52 cents a pound in Chicago on Sept. 10. Soybeans reached $9.04 a bushel on Oct. 1, the lowest for a most-active contract since July 2010.

Worldwide food demand for vegetable oils may expand by 3.5 million to 4 million tons in 2014-2015, while biodiesel consumption will increase by only 1 million tons given the loss of new discretionary blending demand following the slump in energy prices, Mistry said. This “is a good time to buy plantation and processing company equities,” Mistry said today and listed Wilmar International Ltd. (WIL) and Sime Darby Bhd. (SIME) as his top picks. “In fact, with my forecast of improved prices for 2015, the timing could not be better. Downside can now come only from massive South American crops or from contra-cyclical jump in crude palm oil production or from a major world economic crisis.” (news excerpts from businessweek.com bloomberg news)

Wednesday 29 October 2014

Palm prices seen rising to 2,300-2,500 rgt in Jan-March- analyst Mielke

Palm oil futures could rise to trade between 2,300 ringgit ($703) and 2,500 ringgit in the first quarter of next year, leading vegetable oil analyst Thomas Mielke said on Wednesday.

Benchmark palm oil futures are currently trading at around 2,234 ringgit per tonne.

"My forecast for January to March is for crude palm oil futures at 2,300-2500 ringgit, but if energy prices appreciate, then the stage is set for higher prices," Mielke, editor of the Hamburg-based newsletter Oil World, told a palm oil industry conference in Kuala Lumpur.

But he said if energy prices fall to $75 or less, then palm prices may drop. However, palm oil prices are unlikely to drop below 2,000 ringgit a tonne, he added.

Mielke at end-September had forecast crude palm oil export prices in Indonesia, the world's biggest producer, could rise to $730-$750 per tonne in January-March 2015 due to a slowdown in production growth.

Source : uk.reuters.com

Indicator Y - Long 2137 Day 6 Next Target 2287

2287 will be the 150 points from the long 2137 after the cpo futures price hit 2238 the 101 points this morning. Will cpo futures price reach the next target 2287? Again, this is just a guess without following the hourly indicator Y trading guides.

It is basically no stop and reverse sell trade signal for today based the hourly indicator Y trading guides since it will be "ridiculous" seeing cpo futures price tumble down to below 2200 now. But if the fear come in, traders may have a stop loss at 2188 to protect some profits!

CIMB Equities Research On B7 biodiesel

CIMB Equities Research is positive on Malaysia's plans to start implementing the use of B7 biodiesel in stages starting from November as this will boost the country's usage of palm oil.

The research house estimates the rollout could raise the country's palm oil demand by 263,000 to 390,000 tonnes per annum, or 1%-2% of the total palm oil production in 2013.

Source: The Star Online news excerpt

Indicator Y - Long 2137 Day 6 Target Beyond 2238?

There was an typo error in the previous post on the self proclaimed profit taking target which supposed to be 2238 but wrongly put in at 2138. Again, the hourly indicator Y trading guides never set a rule on profit taking targets since its main focus is on the stop and reverse trade signals.

The hourly indicator Y long 2137 is believed to hold on its long for Day 6 today since the stop and reverse sell trade signal is far below the current closing price 2213.

Here is the news excerpts from the Sun Daily today...
MPOC expects CPO prices to rise next year
The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) expects crude palm oil price (CPO) to increase to between RM2,100 and RM2,500 next year, lifted by factors such as biofuel demand and petroleum price level.
Its chief executive officer, Tan Sri Yusof Basiron, said besides supply and demand, biofuel demand and petroleum price level would determine whether more or less of biodiesel would be used.
"The announcement by Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister, Datuk Seri Douglas Uggah Embas, to impose a requirement for biodiesel to use seven per cent palm oil, from five% now, was a way to firm up the CPO price," he told Bernama yesterday.
Basiron said this on the sidelines of MPOC's International Palm Oil Trade Fair and Seminar 2014 here.
Uggah had said the move aimed to lower stocks and boost prices that had declined by over 20% this year.
The implementation would start in stages from November in Peninsular Malaysia and in Sarawak, Sabah and Federal Territory Labuan by December, he said.
Basiron said the government also tried to remove depressing factors on prices by providing export duty exemption for CPO. "This would remove any bearish factors affecting palm oil price. "The move will also stimulate the country's export and help rationalise the stock level," he said.

Tuesday 28 October 2014

Indicator Y - Long 2137 Day 5 Target 2138

(Wish to thank a reader trader alerting the error of 2138 target, it is 2238 not 2138; without amending the original write-up below, I wish to apologise about the typo error here.)

Why target is 2138? It is just a profit target set without following the hourly indicator Y trading guides. It is 101 points from the long 2137 based on self-interest since many traders like to ask in trying to do some profit taking on a right trend! May be the 101 is derived from the 101indicators Blog!

Reaching 2138 will be the 5% up for the long 2137 and fear may come in about losing out good profits even though greed is still there! All depend on traders' own trading rhythm in countering the fear and greed where the hourly indicator Y trading guides never put in the rules.

Malaysia Raising Biodiesel Mandate B5 to B7

KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 28: Malaysia will lift its mandate for biodiesel to use 7% palm oil in stages from November onwards, up from 5% now, as the world’s No 2 palm grower looks to lower stocks and prop up prices that have lost more than 20% this year.

The higher mandate for the subsidised sector will also help cut back on reliance on diesel, a senior government official said.“Implementation of B7 programme will consume 575,000 tonnes of biodiesel,” Malaysian plantation industries and commodities minister, Datuk Amar Douglas Uggah Embas, said today.

“This will contribute towards a savings of 667.6 million litres of diesel a year.” The “B7″ biodiesel blend will be imposed in Peninsular Malaysia from November onwards and from December for Sarawak, Sabah and Labuan. Bernama reported that he said the Cabinet had on Oct 17 approved implementation of the B7 programme.

He also said the move to implement the B7 programme will position Malaysia to be on par with other developed nations in the use of renewable energy sources.“Countries in the EU have been implementing the B7 since 2009, and Thailand from January this year. Indonesia has been using the B7.5 from February 2012, and Colombia, the B8 and B10 using palm-based biodiesel.”

He said in preparation for the implementation of the B7 programme, the government has conducted a series of engagements with relevant stakeholders, including the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, the Malaysian Automotive Association, as well as petroleum companies.

“Based on the consultations, there are no significant issues involved in implementation of the B7 programme.” Uggah said implementation of the B7 programme demonstrates the government’s efforts toward the diversified use of crude palm oil, thus reducing dependence on petroleum diesel, as well as greenhouse gas emissions via environmentally friendly energy sources. Read more: 

Source: therakyatpost.com

Indicator Y - Long 2137 Day 5 At 1230pm

Since cpo futures prices has been moving much higher compared to yesterday's close, the hourly indicator Y is in better position even though the stop and reverse sell trade signal still much below the long 2137.

There will be no further updates if the stop and reverse sell trade signal is not adjusted higher for next few trading sessions, which means the hourly indicator Y long 2137 will remain. Again, profit taking targets will always up to traders' own discretion since the hourly indicator Y trading guides is not focus on them.

Indicator Y - Long 2137 Day 5 At 1130am

Another struggling day for the hourly indicator Y which will see some short term technical trend traders may have to get out some long positions or even turn selling if cpo futures price is traded below 2163 at 1130am today. The protective stop loss at 2145 may be placed by some traders too.

The hourly indicator Y trading guides will still have its stop and reverse sell trade signal below its long 2137, therefore if cpo futures price tumble, it is believed that the long 2137 will have to face losses since its SAR signal is still far below the long 2137.

Monday 27 October 2014

Palm Oil Stock Usage Ratio

This is a long term fundamental issue that need to be looked into even though you may be just a technical trend trader. It is believed that the ratio will be hard to be manipulated since the ratio is basically used for long term monthly projection on palm oil supply and demand.

Over the 12-month period export data which collected over period of one year, do you think it can be manipulated still? then, take on the monthly end month stock and check on the past 3 months which is believed to be more accurate in the average. Having all that data, you can roughly get the feel why sometime the cpo futures prices is moving faster and volatile! They are stock over export figures but they can also be considered as the stock usage ratio judging on the small different in percentage! Do more on local disappearance figures if you want.

Do your data collection and you will learn what is the stock usage ratio in helping you feel on the trends of cpo futures. For now, the figures is bearish looking at low export figures and high stock!

Indicator Y - Long 2137 Stop Loss 2145

The stop loss is just used to protect some small profits for the long 2137 without taking into consideration of the hourly indicator Y trading guides. It is just the feel that if cpo futures prices is traded lower below 2150, the uptrend will be over and it may be better to protect some profit.

The stop and reverse sell trade signal is remained very far below the long 2137 and therefore there is no figures being stated here on the stop and reverse sell trade signal.

CPO Futures Blog "Hit" 1500 Posts Today

It is a long winding road in blogging for CPO Futures blog to tell all readers traders about the use of technical trend indicators in CPO Futures trading while trying to provide updates as informative as possible in order for young learners to know about futures trading on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives.

Today, the CPO Futures blog has finally hit its 1500 posts that are believed to be able to help some novice traders to jump start the futures trading especially on CPO Futures with certain motivation. Some of the posts are the news excerpts that is believed to be useful in data collection on fundamental issues on palm oil and they are therefore being republished in this blog.

If you are new to this blog, please take your time by reading back the old posts which can probably help you in finding your way up in learning technical trend indicators.

I wish to thank all readers traders who have purchased my two books too. I believe the books are knowledge from hard-earned experience and knowledge is the power for trading success. You are the momentum that makes this blog a success. Thank You.

Indicator Y - Long 2137 Day 4

It will be a struggling Day 4 after seeing the soybean oil down over the last Friday. However, the long 2137 based on the hourly indicator Y seems to be holding on.

The cpo futures prices had been reaching high 2194 after the long 2137 was initiated, it did go to low 2131 before heading up trend and reaching the high 2194.

The stop and reverse sell trade signal is still far below the long 2137 and therefore there is no SAR signal being given at the moment; The SAR trade signal will be given earlier by about 1 hour in advance if there is a clear SAR signal in next few posts.

Friday 24 October 2014

Indicator Y - Long 2137 Day 3

We will consider the hourly indicator Y long 2137 on 21/10/2014 as Day One of long, and it is Day 3 now which is believed that the long 2137 will continue its journey of up trend with the stop and reverse sell trade signal far below its long 2137. It will be very painful to see if cpo futures prices tumble down below its long 2137.

This is just a reminder to all technical trend traders following the hourly indicator Y, trend trading will always face with the problem of multiple losing trades when a market has gone into range trading. This year the hourly indicator Y may have less multiple losing trades do not mean that it will have the same next year. When multiple losing trades happen, it will be ugly to see but it is the best time to see also how can a trader handle such a trading pressure! Be frank, all technical trend indicators have such a problem - Multiple Losing Trades.




Thursday 23 October 2014

Indicator Y - Long 2137 Reached 2182 Targeting 2223!

The high 2182 today is basically the 2% target with 2 points higher at 2180 that being discussed in the previous post before the cpo futures went back down to 2160s level.

The hourly indicator Y will still hold on the long 2137 until market close at 6pm today since the stop and reverse sell trade signal is far below the long 2137.

It is more important to see now where will be the cpo futures price closed at 6pm. Above 2190 will send a very strong signal that the market may go for another new target at 2223 which is about the 4% target from the long 2137 and also the previous high level in the daily chart.

(Again, profit taking targets will be up to traders' own decision and the hourly indicator Y trading guides only shows the stop and reverse trade signal.)

Indicator Y - Long 2137 Hit 1% Eyeing 2

Reaching its first 1% floating profit at 2159, the hourly indicator Y long 2137 can now look at the 2% floating profit at about 2180 (it may or may not reach, it is used as a target only).

There will be no stop and reverse sell trade signal given in this or next few updates since the stop and reverse sell signal is far below the long 2137. Based on the hourly indicator Y trading guides, the losses will be great if cpo futures prices is flushed down below 2137 since the stop and reverse sell signal is very far below the 2137.

Indonesian Palm Oil Reserves Shrinking But Exports Sluggish

Here is the excerpt from Bloomberg News and Indonesia-investments.com:

Palm oil stockpiles in Indonesia probably slumped last month by the most since February 2013 as a dry spell reduced output in the largest supplier. Futures rose.

Inventories dropped 12 percent from August to 2.2 million metric tons, according to the median of six estimates from planters, traders, analysts and refiners compiled by Bloomberg. Production fell 9.8 percent to 2.3 million tons, the biggest decline this year, the median of five estimates shows.

“The effect from the drought at the start of the year has begun to materialize,” said Hariyanto Wijaya, a Jakarta-based analyst at Mandiri Sekuritas. “The first-quarter dryness, coupled with very dry conditions in September, have really hurt output. Production may have peaked,” he said by phone Oct. 17.

     Sept. 2014 (Survey)   Aug. 2014   Sept. 2013
Output           2.30         2.55        2.40
Stockpiles       2.20         2.50        2.23
Exports          1.70         1.72        1.64
NOTE: Figures are in millions of tons

-----------

Crude Palm Oil (CPO) Exports from Indonesia Sluggish on Weak Demand

Indonesian CPO exports to India, the world's largest importer of palm oil, fell 38 percent to 305,000 tons in September month-to-month (m/m). On a year-on-year (y/y) basis, Indonesian CPO exports to India have declined 26 percent to 3.3 million tons in the first nine months of 2014. This large decline is caused by India’s higher import tariffs for CPO, the depreciated rupee currency (versus the US dollar), and India’s high inflation.

Meanwhile, Indonesian CPO exports to China fell 31 percent m/m to 56,000 tons in September 2014, and declined 10 percent y/y to 1.60 million tons in the January-September period. China’s demand for Indonesian palm oil has fallen due to increased difficulty to obtain bank loans as well as the country’s new maximum residue limit standards.

Lastly, Indonesian CPO exports to the Eurozone have fallen 12 percent m/m to 302,000 tons in September 2014.

To end on a positive note, exports to the United States have increased 86 percent m/m to 68,800 tons in September. This is a remarkable development as the US soybean production is optimal thus leading to cheap prices of soybeans.

Indonesian Palm Oil Production and Export:

                                    2011  2012  2013  2014¹
Production
(million metric tons)      23.5  26.5   27.0   25.0
Export
(million metric tons)      16.5  18.1   21.2   21.1
Export
(in USD billion)           20.2  21.6   19.0   18.9
¹ indicates forecast
Sources: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (Gapki) and Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture

Indicator Y - Long 2137 No SAR!

This is the weakness of the hourly indicator Y where the possibility of big losses as mentioned long before (refer to the write-up in the Learning Corner) when there is no stop and reverse trade signal given in the blog, meaning that the cut loss point will be every far from the entry level. For example, the long 2137 may have very low SAR which may be below 2100 and it is just a cut loss point NOT SAR! Therefore, traders may have to sit tight on the roller coaster ride on the cpo futures prices if they are purely based on the stop and reverse trade signals of the hourly indicator Y to be triggered.

Like previous short 2172 where cpo futures prices was traded to high 2192 (just 20 ticks away!!!) and to the low 2104 (just 68 ticks floating profit!!!) before the SAR was triggered by buying 2137 (only get half of the real profit!!!).

Riding on trends need patient and discipline and also good risk management by not over trading! You may have no choice to give up substantial good floating profit by the time of doing stop and reverse trade, and also substantial high losses as trend trader!

Tuesday 21 October 2014

Indicator Y - Long 2137 At 5pm

After such a long waiting game seeing high 2192 and low 2104 using the hourly indicator Y trading guides, short 2172 had finally given up some good floating profits (which had been mentioned earlier) by taking profit and turning long 2137 at 5pm sharp. It is a profit of 35 ticks on this trade.

The long 2137 will have to cut loss turn sell if cpo futures price is closed below 2113 at 6pm today based on the hourly indicator Y without taking into any consideration of higher high or lower low data.

The accumulated loss of 21 ticks for October month has turned to profit 14 ticks now while its accumulated profits for year 2014 reaching 996 ticks so far based on the hourly indicator Y trading record.

Indicator Y - Short 2172 On 5pm SAR

The 4pm stop and reverse buy trade signal was not triggered since the cpo futures price is last traded below the given level as stated in previous post.

However, the 5pm stop and reverse buy trade signal is now being adjusted much lower near to the current 2130 level, that is, if cpo futures price is last traded 2132 or higher at 5pm, the hourly indicator Y will have to take profit against its short 2172 and turn long at 5pm sharp on short term technical trend trading strategy. This is based on the hourly indicator Y trading guides without considering the higher high or lower low data that may affect the stop and reverse trade signal.

Indicator Y - Short 2172 On 4pm SAR

With the closing price of 2136 at 1230pm just now on cpo futures 3rd active contract month, the hourly indicator Y will plan to do its stop and reverse buy trade signal once 4pm cpo futures price is last traded 2145 or higher. The short 2172 will have its bearish view being changed to bullish view once the buy signal is triggered at 4pm later today.

Using the hourly indicator Y trading guides, the short 2172 will have to turn long once 4pm is traded 2145 and above.

(Now is more than one hour in advance by giving out the trade signal! It is THREE hours in advance)

Indicator Y - Short 2172 On 1230pm SAR

After cpo futures last traded with high 2139, the hourly indicator Y is facing high probability of turning buy signal sooner than expected. It is still holding on the short 2172 since 10/10/2014 Friday.

Even though the hourly indicator Y may not have its 1230pm stop and reverse buy trade signal being triggered yet, it will have very high chance in believing the hourly indicator Y will turn buy at 4pm later today if cpo futures price can close at high level as given in previous update in the range of 2120 to 2140.

We will give the 4pm stop and reverse buy trade signal ONE hour in advance once there is a clear sign after 1230pm close today.

Protective stop loss order may still be placed at traders' own trading appetite since it is not the main objective to be discussed in this blog other than the stop and reverse trade signals using the hourly indicator Y short term technical trend indicator trading guides.  

Indicator Y - Short 2172 Stop Loss 2145

Some positions of short 2172 may have a stop loss order being placed at 2145 to protect profit while waiting the stop and reverse buy trade signal to be triggered which is currently at high level using the hourly indicator Y trading guides.

The hourly indicator Y is having a high possibility of sharp drop in its stop and reverse buy signal below 2172 if cpo futures prices is closed above 2140 at 1130pm. The hourly indicator may be adjusted below 2155 or even lower near to 2140 level in next 1 or 2 trading sessions if cpo futures prices is traded above the closing price of 2131.

Monday 20 October 2014

Indicator Y - Short 2172 Stop Loss Lower

Stop loss is a kind of order to protect loss and also protect profit. For the short 2172 using hourly indicator Y, the stop loss will be a profit protection now since it is getting lower and lower.

For 6pm trade, the stop loss can be lowered to 2150. Remember, it is not a stop and reverse trade, it is just a covering of position. The stop and reverse buy trade signal has also gone lower near to 2172 but still above 2172, and therefore it is considered high still and difficult to reach at 6pm unless there is some fundamental news that can push up the cpo futures price.

Technically, the short 2172 will soon have to do a stop and reverse buy trade if cpo futures price is kept hovering around 2120 to 2140 level. It is expecting the buy signal may happen tomorrow!

Indicator Y - Short 2172 Stop Loss 2160

It seems that the stop loss may start adjusting lower to get better profit protection on the short 2172 based on the hourly indicator Y trading guides even though the stop and reverse buy trade signals remain at high level above 2172 short.

We will update again once we have the stop and reverse buy trade signal below 2172 short.

Indian Government Import Duty On Palm Oil


The Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA) said that the government must discourage imports of crude palm oil because low prices will hurt the returns of farmers in India.

Source: thedollarbusiness.com

Friday 17 October 2014

Indicator Y - Short 2172 Stop Loss 2165 At 6pm

As it is just a protective stop to retain some profit, it is possible to put a stop loss order at 2165 for 6pm trade to protect some small profit while giving up big floating profit from low 2104.

However, the hourly indicator Y is still having high stop and reverse trade signal which is not likely to be triggered at 6pm today. If cpo futures is closed high, it may be a losing trade for 2172 short.

Indicator Y - 2172 Short Has Crucial Level

2145 to 2150 may be the crucial level to maintain for cpo futures short term technical trend trading bearishness turning to more friendlier.

The hourly indicator Y short@2172 may have to adjust lower its stop loss level to protect some profit if cpo futures prices trade above the crucial level even though the stop and reverse trade signal remain high. This is just a trader's own setting of stop loss level without following the hourly indicator Y trading guides.

Palm Oil Price Survey Mixed

A news wire survey of palm oil industry participants put an average price expectation on nearby palm oil futures by the end of the year around 2,161 ringgit/tonne ($660/tonne), marginally above current November futures of 2135 ringgit/tonne. 

However, there is a very wide range of ideas within the industry of 1,900-2,600 ringgit/tonne as some see the current wet weather being supportive for reduced production potential, while those on the bear side cite the significant weakness in crude oil reducing palm oil demand for bio-diesel due to its declining competitiveness.

Source: rjomrt.com

Thursday 16 October 2014

Indicator Y - 2172 Short Is Remained

It is still holding on the short 2172 based on the hourly indicator Y trading guides on short term technical trend trading strategy, and this will probably hold on much longer than before since cpo futures prices keep trading lower.

The stop and reverse buy trade signal is not available in this blog for 6pm trade since it is very far away from the current level.

Indicator Y - Rollover For 2172 Short

Since there is a new 3rd contract month to monitor, the short 2172 based on the hourly indicator Y trading guides will have to rollover to the new active contract month for easy reference.

The short 2172 will still hold on and sit tight riding on the short term bearish trend based on the hourly indicator Y trading guides without stating the stop and reverse buy trade signal. Again, traders set own stop loss level.

It is believed that the short 2172 will be holding on for a bit longer time even though cpo futures price may or may not go below 2111 its previous low.

Discipline to hold on a right trend and giving up substantial good floating profits will always be a part of trader's wisdom.

Wednesday 15 October 2014

Indicator Y - 6pm Trade For 2172 Short

After seeing low 2111 for the hourly indicator Y short 2172, the earlier small floating profit has now reached 61 ticks. It is still holding on the short without any stop and reverse buy signal yet based on the hourly indicator Y trading guide. Traders are reminded that the risk is very high if there is no stop loss being placed in futures trading. Therefore, stop loss level must theoretically be set in traders' mind even though there is no stop and reverse trade signal.

It seems that the short will be holding on much longer and riding on the down trend with more profit if soybean oil can go lower tonight.

Indicator Y - 4pm Trade For 2172 Short

The hourly indicator Y had held on its short 2172 since 10/10/2014, seeing high 2192 against its short; and today, the cpo futures hit low 2138 before closing 2153 at 1230pm.

The hourly indicator Y is still facing very high Stop & Reverse buy trade signal even though it is now seeing some better floating profit.

Without taking into consideration of higher high lower low data, 4pm trade signal is basically not established yet unless traders wish to set own stop loss level at high level.

New Record Of CPO Futures Volume Above 1 Million Mark

News excerpts From Bursa Malaysia Derivatives:

  • In September 2014, we achieved a historical month high volume for Crude Palm Oil Futures (FCPO) Contracts of 1,083,141 contracts, breaching the 1 million contract mark for the first time, exceeding the previous record of 959,670 contracts traded in March 2014. 
  • The FCPO also attained a daily record high volume of 76,335 contracts on 15 September 2014.
  • Open Interest for FCPO soared to an all time high of 287,859 contracts on 10 September 2014. 
  • As a result of the active FCPO volumes, Total Volume of the Exchange in September 2014 recorded a month high of 1,258,226 contracts. Similarly, the Total Open Interest for all products hit a high of 321,077 contracts on 10 September 2014. The contract volumes are inclusive of Exchange For Related Positions (EFRP) and Negotiated Large Trades (NLT).
The surge in volumes was due to higher volatility in CPO prices in September 2014 as a result of increased active hedging activities due to uncertainties in the market.

Tuesday 14 October 2014

Indicator Y - 6pm Trade For 2172 Short

As the cpo futures prices is still in between 2185 high 2162 low today, the stop and reverse buy trade signal will basically not be able to have for the 6pm trade decision unless traders set own cut loss point at a certain high level without following the hourly indicator Y trading guide.

The hourly indicator Y is maintaining its bearish technical short term view since the short 2172 has no 6pm stop and reverse trade signal. Therefore, the short is holding on for overnight again.  

Indicator Y - 1130am And 1230pm For 2172 Short

The hourly indicator Y short 2172 is still struggling with its small floating profits after seeing high 2192 and low 2152 on short term technical trend trading.

It is believed that there will be no stop and reverse buy trade signals for 1130am and 1230pm in the morning trading sessions today; hold on short 2172.

If there is no update for afternoon trade signals, traders should know that the hourly indicator Y trading guide is maintaining its bearish view on cpo futures prices for short term trend trading until further write-up in the blog.  

Monday 13 October 2014

Indicator Y - Short 2172 Is Holding On

Traded high 2192 this morning on cpo futures, the hourly indicator Y is still holding on its short 2172 even at market close 1230pm since it is difficult to have its stop and reverse trade signal being triggered at very high level.

Afternoon trading session will probably be still holding on short 2172 unless cpo futures prices can trade above 2200 level at 4pm and 5pm. Update will only be posted if there is a clear stop and reverse trade signal in the afternoon.




Friday 10 October 2014

Indicator Y - Short 2172 At 5pm

After trading in a range of 2215 and 2158, the 60-minute indicator Y finally cut loss 8 ticks and turned selling 2172 at 5pm just now.

It will be holding on short 2172 from now on, and no stop and reverse buy trade signal at 6pm today unless traders wish to set own cut loss point.

Indicator Y - Sell At 5pm If Below 2194

The long 2180 will soon be over and turning sell if cpo futures price is traded 2193 or lower at 5pm later today unless cpo futures buyer can push the price to go above the 2193 level at 5pm.

If it is below 2180 when it turn sell, it will be a loss for the long 2180 based in the 60-minute indicator Y. If it is above 2180, it will be a small profit taken and turned sell.

DJPO News - Malaysia Palm Oil Stockpile Rise

SINGAPORE--Malaysia's palm oil stockpiles rose to an 18-month high at the end
of September, although exports surged 13% from August, said the Malaysian Palm
Oil Board Friday. Production fell 6.6% from a month earlier.
  The sharp rise in exports was likely due to an export tax waiver on crude
palm-oil shipments for September and October, as authorities seek to reduce
stockpiles amid a price decline.
  Palm-oil exports have been under pressure due to prospects of an abundant
soybean crop this year, which makes soybean oil prices attractive. Supply of
other oilseeds have also been healthy.

  The following are details of the September crop data and revised numbers for
August issued by MPOB:

                                      September        August      Change
                                                     On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output     1,896,899     2,031,754    Dn  6.6%
Palm Oil Exports               1,628,197     1,437,503    Up 13.3%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports      104,760          71,272    Up 47.0%
Crude Palm Oil Imports            2,670           2,523    Up  5.8%

Closing Stocks                  2,089,859     2,053,175    Up  1.8%
Crude Palm Oil                 1,178,046     1,133,453    Up  3.9%
Processed Palm Oil              911,813        919,722    Dn  0.9%

(All figures are in metric tons)


  Write to Huileng Tan at huileng.tan@wsj.com

  (END) Dow Jones Newswires
  October 10, 2014 01:23 ET (05:23 GMT)

Indicator Y - 4pm 2168 SAR For 2180 Long

Without taken into consideration of any higher high lower low data, the 60-minute indicator Y will have to cut loss and turn selling once cpo futures price is last traded at 4pm below 2169. It will be the second losing trade for this month after making 17 ticks in first trade and losing 30 ticks in second trade.

MPOB September figures is Output 1.9m, Stock 2.09m and Export 1.6m.

Indicator Y - If 1230pm Below 2180 Long

The stop and reverse sell trade signal is still low at 1230pm which is much below than 2150. However, once cpo futures price is closed below 2180 at 1230pm, the stop and reverse sell trade signal at 4pm based on the 60-minute indicator Y will be adjusted much higher which may be just above the low of today 2167. Watch out the 4pm!

If MPOB output figures is not as low as what being estimated in the surveys, fundamental will be bearish since export is still low even having zero export duty. (It is just an opinion, not technical trend trading rules)

Indicator Y - Long 2180 With Low SAR

It is believed that the long 2180 based on 60-minute indicator Y trading guide will still be holding on since the stop and reverse sell trade signal is very low for 1130am.

Unless the last traded cpo futures price at 1130pm is below 2150, we will not be able to adjust higher the stop and reverse sell trade signal for 1230pm.

MPOB figures will be out today, with Reuters and Bloomberg surveys given lower output.

Thursday 9 October 2014

Indicator Y - 4pm 2210 For 2180 Long

Since 4pm was traded 2210 in cpo futures trading on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives, the 60-minute indicator Y is now having some good floating profit while facing a very low stop and reverse sell trade signals below 2150 for its 5pm and 6pm.

Since the 60-minute indicator Y is adjusting its stop and reverse trade signal lower, it is believed that the long 2180 will hold on until after MPOB figures tomorrow.

Indicator Y - 4pm And 5pm For 2180 Long

There is basically no 4pm stop and reverse sell trade signal for long 2180 using 60-minute indicator Y unless traders use own judgement in cutting loss based on recent low 2137 as the cut loss point not stop and reverse trade.

If 4pm last traded cpo price is 2150, we will get the 5pm stop and reverse sell trade signal around 2150 level. Wait 4pm cpo futures price to be confirmed, we will update on 5pm stop and reverse trade signal.

For the last 2 stop and reverse trade, accumulated loss is 13 ticks ( 1st +17, 2nd -30). If there is a stop and reverse trade signal being triggered today, it will be the 3rd stop and reverse trade for this month of October.

Wednesday 8 October 2014

Indicator Y - 1230pm SAR For 2180 Long

It is believed that the long 2180 will be holding on for next few trading sessions or even longer since its stop and reverse sell trade signal is getting lower as compared to previous update.

The 60-minute indicator Y will have its stop and reverse sell trade signal being triggered if cpo futures price is closed below 2140 at 1230pm in the morning trading session close.

If 4pm, 5pm, or 6pm stop and reverse sell trade signals is lower than 2150, there will be no update for the indicator Y trading guides in this blog.

Indicator Y - Long 2180 At 6pm Yesterday

The 60-minute indicator Y had finally cut loss and turned long 2180 against its earlier short 2150. The accumulated profit of 17 ticks became a loss after cutting loss 30 ticks.

The stop and reverse sell trade signal for 1130am today will be 2173 or lower using the 60-minute indicator Y trading guide, which mean, if 1130am cpo futures price is traded below 2174, the indicator Y will cut loss turn sell again.

Tuesday 7 October 2014

Indicator Y - 6pm SAR 2178 For Short 2150

For the 60-minute indicator Y to cut loss and turn long, cpo futures need to close 2178 or higher at 6pm today. It is holding on its short 2150 still since the 5pm last traded price was below 2188. If cpo futures is closed below 2178, then remain short 2150.

Again, it is crucial for traders to have a decisive trade at last few seconds traded prices if cpo futures is traded near its stop and reverse trade signal. Following technical trend indicators especially based on last traded prices will face a problem on trade decision that need to be made in last seconds before market close which is very near to a stop and reverse trade signal.

Indicator Y - 5pm SAR For 2150 Short Is Much Lower Now

The 5pm stop and reverse buy trade signal for 60-minute indicator Y has been much lowered near to the current market price. It is going to cut loss and turn buy if 5pm cpo futures price is last traded at 2188 or higher. Otherwise, the short 2150 will be holding on and eyeing on the 6pm closing price.

As the price is much lower as compared to the 4pm trade signal, the loss will be much lesser as earlier estimated if the stop and reverse buy trade signal is triggered at 5pm later today.

Indicator Y - 4pm SAR For 2150 Short

The short 2150 based on 60-minute indicator Y trading guide is facing huge floating loss at 1230pm closing price 2198. It will have its stop and reverse (SAR) buy trade signal at 4pm at 2214 or higher, without taking into any consideration of higher high or lower low that may affect the SAR.

If the indicator Y does turn buy signal at 4pm, it will be the largest loss figure in this year being recorded. Therefore, it is believed that traders should now realize why the rules in using technical trend indicators must always be followed strictly if traders wish to be a technical trend traders. (Refer back earlier posts for details.)

It is not known how far will these coming three months in generating profit or loss using indicator Y trading guides after knowing the details of its trades in the past 9 months as shown in previous post with nearly 1000 ticks per contract. How much will these three months stop and reverse trades affect the 9 months' accumulated profits, and we shall able to see in this blog by end of this year.

Indicator Y - Short 2150 No SAR At 1130am

As repeated like previous post, there will be no stop and reverse buy signals at 1130am today and therefore it is a kind of trading psychology that traders need patiently to wait for the cut loss level which will only be known in next few trading sessions only after 1130am today.

After first stop and reverse trade gross profit of 17 ticks for this month, traders may finally get to feel the pressure of holding on short 2150 based on the 60-minute indicator Y with cpo futures market being traded higher prices.

Do read back those early post of indicator Y if traders have forgotten the rules. (Read at the right column in the blog - the learning corner).

Friday 3 October 2014

Q4 2014 Palm Oil Technical Analysis By Reuters Analyst Wang Tao

Here is the technical view from Reuters Market Anaylst, Wang Tao. Click on the chart for better view and comments.




Indicator Y - Short 2150 At 6pm Yesterday

As mentioned in previous, the stop and reverse sell trade signal was finally triggered at 6pm close at 2150 yesterday. It is far away from the high 2223.

Traders should be able to realize by now that the long 2133 will have to be taken profit and turned selling 2150 from now on. Even though the 2150 may be just a theoretical price that hard to be filled in last seconds, it will be the guide based on the 60-minute indicator Y for the short positions to be initiated.

There will be no stop and reverse buy signals at 1130am today and therefore it is a kind of trading psychology that traders need patiently to wait in cut loss level which will only be known in next few trading sessions only after 1130am today.

Thursday 2 October 2014

Indicator Y - 6pm SAR For 2133 Long Is Clear Now

It is like a judgement day at 6pm later today. The stop and reverse sell trade signal is finally clear and it is a sell signal if cpo futures price is closed below 2175 at 6pm in about one hour time from now.

The long 2133 has finally over by taking profit and turning sell 6 pm if cpo futures is really traded 2174 or lower, traders who follow the 60-minute indicator Y trading guide may have to do the stop and reverse sell just before the market close.

If near the 6pm and cpo futures price is below 2133. traders will have to cut loss and turn sell also by following the trading discipline of indicator Y.

(Note: the stop and reverse trade signal is given above without taking into consideration the higher highs and lower lows data which may affect the stop and reverse trade signal)

Indicator Y - 5pm Level For 2133 Long

The stop loss order 2167 was triggered right just before 4pm just now, and therefore the long 2133 will do some profit taking if traders who have more than 1 contract in holding the long 2133. Now, it is believed that traders who follow the indicator Y 60-minute guide will realize how painfully will it be in giving up such a huge floating profit from the high 2223 to the 2167 stop loss price in order to protect some profits. 

If not follow the protective stop loss guide, traders will have to patiently wait and keep monitor another few trading sessions. 5pm will probably still hold on the long 2133 since September stop and reverse buy trade signal was triggered.

6pm will probably be the most crucial time since there is a possible trading decision need to be made on stop and reverse sell trade decision just before the cpo futures market close. 

Indicator Y - 4pm Stop Level For 2133 Long

The protective stop loss order may be placed to realize some profits if cpo futures hit 2167 even though the stop and reverse sell trade signal for the 60-minute indicator Y is still not reach the level yet for 4pm trading session which is given in advance in this blog. It may be just a part of profit to be taken while leave some positions.

Just take note: protective stop and not a "stop and reverse trade", it is just to protect some profit. It is basically you lose nothing except the huge floating profits that gave up due to following a kind of trading system like a set of program.

Indicator Y - Stop Loss 2160 For 2133 Long

The 60-min indicator Y will have its stop loss at 2160 for the period between 1130am and 1230pm in order to protect its 2133 Long from further deteriorating. It is just a protective stop loss and not a "stop and reverse trade". 

The stop and reverse trade signal will have more clearer picture in the afternoon trading sessions if cpo futures price is lower than yesterday closing price. It is still remained at low level.   

Wednesday 1 October 2014

Indicator Y - Long 2133 Stop Loss 2150

Stop loss 2150 is actually to protect some profits if you are holding more than 1 lot in cpo futures hourly technical trend trading using indicator Y as your guide.

There is still no sign of stop and reverse sell trade signal being adjusted higher than 2150. Therefore, it is believed that the 4pm, 5pm and even the 6pm trade signal will be remained buying without taking into consideration the higher high or lower low data in the afternoon hourly trading sessions. 

By now, traders should realize how wide the range in using indicator Y which means traders may need to sacrifice huge floating profit if cpo futures does go to 2150 from the current closing price 2212! Good or Bad? Just read back the previous post. 

Indicator Y - Long 2133 Will Hold On

Even though cpo futures prices go below 2200, the long 2133 using indicator Y in short term technical trend trading will remain for next few hourly trading sessions since the stop and reverse sell trade signals still below 2150. 

Following indicator Y will need to stand the heat of high volatility of prices but as long as the trend is right it will be probably to see a good result in discipline a sincere technical trend trading habit to be practiced by a trader, the end result is basically to build trader's own trading rhythm. It is believed that majority of technical trend indicators also inherit such a principle for trading success

October month is just started and we are using the September month 2133 long that being carried forward, and it will have high possibility in generating profit in the first trade for the October month as long as cpo futures can maintain above 2150 in next few trading sessions.

Indonesia - New plantation law limits foreign ownership

The House of Representatives on Monday passed the plantation bill, which sets stricter rules on foreign ownership in the plantation sector so as to prioritize smaller local investors.

The limitation is to have no specific percentage value, although the House’s Commission IV has previously demanded a 30 percent foreign ownership cap.

Instead, the law allows the central government to limit direct foreign investment in Indonesia’s growing plantation sector, notable for its palm oil, of which Indonesia is the world’s number one producer and exporter.

Foreign ownership in the plantation sector will be capped through government regulations (PPs). The limits, according to the new law, are to be based on the type of crop, the size of the producing company and certain geographical conditions.

A strict foreign ownership cap would discourage foreign investment in the upstream plantation sector, but a less stringent one, made general by the new law and specified by a PP, would be acceptable, according to the Agriculture Ministry’s director general for plantations, Gamal Nasir.

“If foreign ownership were restricted to 30 percent, foreign investors would lose interest in investing in Indonesia and would look to other countries with more open investment rules,” said Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (Gapki) executive director Fadhil Hasan....

Firms have been given five years to comply with the new law...

Source: The Jakarta Post