Tuesday 30 September 2014

Indicator Y - Long 2133 Remain At 1130am And 1230pm

Since it is still remained far below from the current cpo futures and also below its long 2133, the 60-minute indicator Y will have basically no stop and reverse trade signals because it will be a bad sell if cpo futures price hit below the long 2133, and it is believed that there will be no strong reason to sell below the long 2133. 

Without considering any higher highs or lower lows, it is believed that the long 2133 will be carried forward to next month, October, and therefore the profit and loss will also be brought forward to next month. If the profit is brought forward, it is a loss for the month of September (refer back previous post to find the profit and loss for September)

There will be no update for afternoon trading sessions if the stop and reverse sell trade signals remain far below 2150, and therefore indicator Y will be considered as holding on the long 2133.

Monday 29 September 2014

Indicator Y - Long 2133 Will Remain For 5pm and 6pm

The 60-minute indicator Y on cpo futures will remain Long 2133 for 5pm and 6pm since it is hard to see the cpo futures prices traded below 2150 in the last 3 hourly trading sessions. Therefore, the stop and reverse sell trade signals will not be given here since it is still below 2133 level.

Indicator Y - The SAR Is Higher But Below 2133 Long

The indicator Y long 2133 for 60-minute short term technical trend trading on cpo futures has its stop and reverse sell trade signals higher but still below 2133 for 1130am and 1230pm, and therefore it is believed that the long will be holding on and we will only look into the possibility of higher SAR in the afternoon trading sessions for 4pm, 5pm and 6pm which will be updated 1 hour in advance accordingly if the SARs is getting near to market level.

Reuters - MPOA and James Fry

Reuters News excerpts...

Surprise drop in Malaysian palm oil output, exports to buoy prices -sources
* Arrival of fresh fruit bunches very slow-broker
* Malaysian Sept. 1-20 palm output seen down 12 pct -growers
* Palm prices set for biggest monthly gain since April 2009

The Malaysian Palm Oil Association estimated palm oil production fell about 12 percent between Sept. 1-20 from a month ago, indicating output may have lost steam after surging 22 percent to 2.03 million tonnes in August.

Peninsular Malaysia, which accounts for about half of the country's total production, may see a drop in output in September after recording a stronger-than-expected rise in August, some planters said. "It could be that yields in Peninsular Malaysia were high in August, and it may dip a bit in September and October.

For the second half of October it might come back up again," said Puru Kumaran, Chief Financial Officer at Malaysia-based planter IJM Plantations Bhd...

By Anuradha Raghu and Naveen Thukral... 
http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/09/26/malaysia-palmoil-idINL3N0RQ29520140926
--

Malaysian palm oil prices to rise 8 pct by Feb 2015 - LME analyst James Fry

MUMBAI, Sept 27 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil prices are likely to rise nearly 8 percent to 2,350 ringgit a tonne by February 2015 as a reduction in inventories and lower yields offset an expected drop in crude oil prices, a top industry analyst said on Saturday.

"In oil palm, you will see lower fertiliser applications and longer gaps between harvesting rounds. The result will be some drop in output," James Fry, chairman of commodities consultancy LMC International, told the Globoil India conference in Mumbai.

"On top of the fall that would occur if yields simply reverted to normal after a year characterised by generally good weather."

Malaysian palm oil futures settled at 2,177 Malaysian ringgit ($668.40) per tonne on Friday, after hitting a five-year low at 1,914 ringgit on Sept. 2.

Forecasting palm oil price to rise to 2,350 ringgit, the London-based analyst assumes the price of Brent crude will drop to $90 per barrel until February. Brent is now around $97 a barrel, after hitting a two year low of $95.60 earlier this week.

If Brent crude drops to $85 a barrel, then the crude palm oil price could trade around 2,225 ringgit per tonne in February.

"Crude oil prices will ease, as supplies continue to grow and eventually U.S. interest rates rise. This sets the floor (for vegetable oils)," Fry said.

The palm oil price could jump over 13 percent to 2,465 ringgit in February if crude oil price remain at $95.

Vegetable oil prices move in sync with crude oil prices due to its rising use as a biofuel, he said. (Reporting by Rajendra Jadhav; Editing by Michael Perry)
http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL3N0RS04S20140927

Source: Reuters, Thomson Reuters

Saturday 27 September 2014

Indicator Y - Before The Long 2133

Here is just a record for traders who wish to know about trades before the long 2133... without given the exact time on the SAR, traders will be able to see the trade signals with profit and loss per contract basis.

It did a gross profit of 982 ticks in total so far (as at the end of September), or almost near to $25,000.00 per contract basis. It will be interesting to see how much will the indicator Y make or lose in October to December 2014.

Yellow Highlighted Figures is the losses being recorded - Multiple Losing Trades - Can feel the " Heat " of losing? No doubt profit is important, it is more prudent to look at the risk of losses.

Therefore, the 60-minute indicator Y need to be watched carefully at time 1130am, 1230pm, 4pm, 5pm and 6pm every trading day.

20/12/2013 L 2587 P&L 
03/01/2014 S 2640 53
16/1/2014 L 2540 100
27/1/2014 S 2565 25
06/02/2014 L 2561 4
12/03/2014 S 2829 268
04/04/2014 L 2648 181
08/04/2014 S 2628 -20
14/4/2014 L 2650 -22
18/4/2014 S 2639 -11
22/4/2014 L 2682 -43
29/4/2014 S 2638 -44
12/05/2014 L 2580 58
19/5/2014 S 2562 -18
13/6/2014 L 2418 144
27/06/2014 S 2444 26
04/7/2014 L 2413 31
same day S 2404 -9
25/07/2014 L 2284 120
30/07/2014 S 2267 -17
1/8/2014 L 2285 -18
4/8/2014 S 2260 -25
27/08/2014 L 2004 256
28/08/2014 S 1983 -21
04/09/2014 L 1994 -11
10/9/2014 S 2020 26
11/9/2014 L 2044 -24
22/09/2014 S 2075 31
24/09/2014 L 2133 -58










total profit / lot = 982
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2/10/2014 S 2150 17
7/10/2014 L 2180 -30
10/10/2014 S 2172 -8
21/10/2014 L 2137 35
5/11/2014 S 2254 117
12/11/2014 L 2278 -24
14/11/2014 s 2222 -56
19/11/2014 L 2259 -37
20/11/2014 s 2223 -36
26/11/2014 L 2239 -16
28/11/2014 s 2161 -78
04/12/2014 L 2163 -2
09/12/2014 s 2129 -34
11/12/2014 L 2185 -56
16/12/2014 s 2141 -44
19/12/2014 L 2153 -12










total profit / lot = 718
=============================================

Friday 26 September 2014

Indicator Y - The SAR Below The Long 2133

The stop and reverse (SAR) trade signals for 60-minute cpo futures using indicator Y is still remained "far" below the long 2133 and therefore, the chances for turning sell at 1230pm, 4pm and 5pm will be very low today.

Just remain holding the long and be able to stand the heat of the high volatility of cpo futures prices if you are following such 60-minute technical trend indicator as your trading guide. 

5th International Palm Oil Trade Fair and Seminar 2014

Palm Oil Trade Fair and Seminar (POTS) Kuala Lumpur 2014

The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) is proud to present the Fifth International Palm Oil Trade Fair and Seminar 2014 in Kuala Lumpur (POTS KL 2014), which will be held from 28 to 29 October 2014 at the Shangri La Hotel, Kuala Lumpur. Since its inception, POTS has made significant progress and established itself as a signature event and a key networking platform for global palm oil players and business leaders to meet and explore future trade and business linkages, to provide thoughtful insights into upcoming innovations as well as economic opportunities.
This year’s POTS KL 2014 theme "Malaysian Palm Oil: Sharing Vision and Shaping Decision" will focus on the efforts taken by the Malaysian government and various stakeholders to leverage on the technical advancements as well as the market opportunities in new and emerging markets. POTS KL 2014 brings together eminent experts in the field of oils and fats from around the globe with the objective of sharing their knowledge and experiences and provide the window to deliberate among others, issues, challenges and innovations as well as the latest developments in the palm oil industry to generate meaningful discussions, in gearing up to the challenges of the global oils and fats industry.
Apart from gaining invaluable insights into the thoughts of some of the prominent speakers in the industry, sponsorship opportunities and exhibition booths or companies wishing to maximize exposure for their products and services are available to raise their corporate visibility and promote brand recognition.
From the many positive testimonies the MPOC has received from industry members, it is evident that the industry have benefitted tremendously from their participation in our POTS series. We are confident that all of you will share the same sentiment and experience as the numerous participants who have been through our POTS event.
On that note, I urge you to quickly mark your calendar today and do not miss this exciting event. I look forward to meeting you in POTS KL 2014.
See you there!

YBhg Tan Sri Datuk Dr. Yusof Basiron CEO,
Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC)
http://www.mpoc.org.in/?p=1588

Thursday 25 September 2014

Indicator Y - Good And Bad - Long 2133

Like all other technical trend indicators, indicator Y will also have its strengths and weaknesses.
  • Good - It has fewer stop and reverse trades per month.
  • Good - Fewer trades mean less brokerage payments.
  • Good - Huge profits when it is right on trend.
  • Bad - Its next SAR trade is very far after being triggered.
  • Bad - Multiples losing trades stress traders' good psychology.
  • Bad - Need high capital margin ratio, ideally 5x.
Be a discipline trader with strong psychology and high capital margin ratio is a must if you are following such a technical trend indicator in short term trading strategy.

Now we know that the long 2133 was triggered yesterday 1230pm as given in previous post and it is basically no sign of stop and reverse sell signals for next few 60-minute trading sessions. Even though now seeing good profit... just be ready for big floating loss always, and that is why you need high capital margin ratio.

Indicator Y For October To December 2014

With the expectation of fewer than 10 trades a month, here we are testing to give a technical trend indicator for short term trading strategy for cpo futures. We just wish to name it as Technical Trend Indicator Y using 60 minutes trading parameter ended 1130am, 1230pm, 4pm, 5pm and 6pm every day. Indicator Y will be given in advance in this blog for trader to make own decision.

For example, if indicator Y will do a stop and reverse buy if 1130am is above 2117, the write up will be given earlier in this blog before 1130am so that traders may try to mark the 1130pm cpo futures price by themselves since it will be too late to update in this blog at 1130am sharp as market may have gone far away.

However, please remind that due to unforeseen circumstances or the stop and reverse trade signals that far away, there will be no update in this blog. Therefore, please do not blame that we are giving late signals. For example, the 60-minute indicator Y had turned long 2133 since 1230pm yesterday and now we shall wait and see how far will the cpo futures price go! Its stop and reverse sell signals will be far below and therefore will not be given today. May be the stop and reverse trade signal will keep holding on until end of this month, and we actually target the updates to be given out only start from October to December. 

Cheers!

Friday 19 September 2014

Will Palm Oil Stock Hit Above 3 MMT Level?

Looking back on previous MPOB figures, end month stock of palm oil in Malaysia reached 2.05 million metric tonnes (mmt) due to higher than expected production data while export remained weak before the September October export duty fee was waived.

As production will normally reach its peak around October November, the end month stock will also keep going up sharply if palm oil export is below 1.5mmt.

Now, assume that production unchange in the coming three months at 2.03mmt, export 1.5mmt without heavy local disappearance at about 0.2mmt. Will it be possible to reach 3 million mark!?


Sept Oct (e) Nov (e) Dec (e)





Production 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03





Export 1.43 1.5 1.5 1.5





Stock 2.05 2.38 2.71 3.04
  


Wednesday 17 September 2014

Where Is The Weekly Stop And Reverse Trade Signals

There is some updated trade signals being written in the 101indicators's blog which is targeted more on long term technical trend trading. CPO Futures traders who have interest to know may just click on the last few posts in 101indicators's blog to digest. However, do really read all these articles properly before practicing it. 

6 YEARS AGO: THE WEEK THAT CHANGED THE WORLD

Sept. 18, 2008: “we may not have an economy on Monday.”  -- Ben Bernanke

Six years ago today, the entire United States financial system was at a tipping point, about to fall into an abyss not seen since the stock market crash of 1929 and the resulting Great Depression of the 1930’s.

And now, 6 years after a week that began with the collapse of Lehman Brothers and ended with the biggest attempted financial power grab in the history of the U.S., many of the institutions and individuals who caused the crash continue to reap record profits and live the good life while tens of millions of American families continue to struggle and dig out of the wreckage caused by Wall Street’s too-big-to-fail banks, as compellingly illustrated by Robert Samuelson in the Washington Post this morning.

Here is the look back on that fateful week that shook the world’s financial stability and almost caused a second Great Depression, and a look forward to today where, even though Congress passed the landmark Dodd-Frank law in 2010, many of the problems that led to the crash have still not been fixed, including the systemic risks Wall Street’s too-big-to-fail banks continue to pose to the real economy.

6 years ago: The week that changed the world.

  • Sept. 12th, 2008 – Bernanke and Paulson summon heads of Wall Street’s biggest firms to an emergency meeting at Tim Geithner’s NY Fed office where they’re told there will be no bailout of Lehman Brothers.
  • Sept. 15th -  4th largest investment bank Lehman Brothers runs out of cash & files bankruptcy, Bank of America agrees to buy third largest investment bank Merrill Lynch and the Dow Jones plunges almost 500 points.
  •  Sept. 16th  - A money market mutual fund “breaks the buck” due to Lehman’s bankruptcy, starting a run on money market funds, and the Fed provides AIG, the world’s largest insurer, with its first bailout of $85 billion (on the way to a $182 billion bailout).
  • Sept. 17th – As lending locks up and banks stop lending to each other, Bernanke tells Paulson ‘We need a full-scale bailout of the entire financial system;’ the Dow drops 449 points, with investment banks Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs down 24% and 14% .
  • Sept. 18 – The Fed and global central banks pump $180 billion into markets to ease the cash crunch as Bernanke tells Congressional leaders that if the federal government doesn’t bail out the entire financial system “we may not have an economy on Monday;” The Dow drops another 410 points.
  • Sept. 19 – President Bush announces plan to use taxpayer money to buy toxic assets from Wall Street banks as the Treasury guarantees the entire $3.7 trillion money market fund industry; Dow gains 360 points
  • Sept. 20 – Treasury Secretary Paulson sends 3-page bill to Congress giving him $700 billion of taxpayer money to bail out Wall Street any way he wanted, but prohibiting transparency, accountability, oversight and judicial review; this shocking and unprecedented power grab caused a full scale revolt, including among Congressional Republicans.
  • Sept. 21 – As they teetered on collapse, the last two independent investment banks, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, were permitted by the Fed to convert virtually overnight to bank holding companies, enabling full access to all the Fed’s financial support, in effect, a massive unseen and unacknowledged bailout.

Other notable 2008 dates:

  • Sept. 24 – The crisis roils the presidential election as John McCain suspends his presidential campaign.
  • Sept. 29 - House rejects $700 billion bailout bill and Dow drops 778 points.
  • Oct. 3 – A heavily revised $700 billion banking bailout becomes law as President Bush signs emergency legislation creating Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) – this is in addition to the Treasury Department, the Fed and other banking agencies continuing to pour trillions of dollars into the financial system to prevent a financial and economic collapse.
  • Oct. 13 – “U.S. Forces Nine Major Banks To Accept Partial Nationalization”: The Washington Post.
  •  Nov. 23 – The Treasury, Fed and FDIC provide Citigroup with the first of multiple bailouts, ultimately totaling almost $500 billion.

6 years later:

  • While Wall Street’s biggest banks making near –record profits, millions of Americans continue to suffer.
  • At least 17 percent of U.S. properties remain seriously underwater – that’s more than 9.1 million homes.
  • As of July 2014, 5.7 million jobs still need to be created to erase the “jobs gap” and return employment levels to pre-recession levels.
  • Wages remain stagnant for millions of Americans, while salaries of CEOs from Wall Street’s biggest banks soar.
  • Too-Big-to-Fail banks are still TBTF: All 11 of the biggest banks fail “Living Wills” test from FED, FDIC.
  • Not a single senior executive at a Wall Street bank has been held accountable for causing or contributing to the financial crash.
  • Dept. of Justice has shielded illegal activity of the big banks from the public and prevented accountability of DOJ, other regulators and prosecutors as well as Wall Street itself.
  • The economic cost of the financial crisis, which includes lost jobs, homes, retirement savings, bailing out the banks and the deficits caused by all of that, is estimated to be at least $12.8 trillion.
Source: bettermarkets.com

Wednesday 10 September 2014

What Is The Difference Of MPOB Data Against Bloomberg Survey And Why So Much?

MPOB had released the official demand and supply data on palm oil after 1230pm CPO Futures market closed. Here is the data being taken from previous post to compare.

MPOB August output is 2.032 million tons;
End month stock is 2.054 million tons; and,
Export is 1.437 million tons.

But, Bloomberg survey is
Aug.2014(Survey) July2014(MPOB) Aug.2013(MPOB)
Output 1.88 1.67 1.74
Stockpiles 1.95 1.68 1.67
Exports 1.38 1.45 1.53
Imports 0.011 0.013 0.0075

MPOB raised the Sarawak output with more than 30% may have contributed the higher total output for the August data! Peninsula Malaysia higher output is also near to 20% that make the figures bigger as compared to Bloomberg survey.

If export is not above 1.4 million tons, the end month stock will even look bad with over 2.1 million tons as all know that the export figures given by SGS and Intertek cargo surveyors was below 1.3 million tons.   

Monday 8 September 2014

Indonesia keeps CPO export tax unchanged despite Malaysia’s move

(Good article from the Jakarta Post - Keep those data in your spreadsheet so that you can refer it again.)

Trade Minister Muhammad Lutfi ruled out Friday the possibility of raising the export duty on the country’s crude palm oil (CPO) as a response to Malaysia’s move to remove its export tax for the commodity.

The minister said the government would maintain the current export rates imposed on CPO products, although the export tax cut announced by Malaysia on Thursday would make Indonesia’s CPO products less competitive overseas.

Export tax on the commodity remains at 9 percent for September, its lowest level since November last year, as its global price fell further on weak demand. “It would be impossible for us to issue a new policy that does not comply with what has been laid out,” Lutfi told reporters at his office.

Malaysia, the world’s second largest palm oil producer after Indonesia, removed its export tax on CPO for September and October to help push up outbound shipments and avert a further slide in prices, which had already plunged to a five-year low, Bloomberg reported.

The tariff removal may boost Malaysia’s exports by 600,000 metric tons and help contain stockpiles at 1.6 million tons at the end of this year. The zero-percent duty may be extended as demanded by the industry and the Malaysian government will soon study the proposal.

Lutfi said that the government was anticipating a higher absorption of palm oil domestically as its mandatory fuel blending was executed.

Indonesia has raised the portion of palm oil derivative, fatty acid methyl ester (FAME), in blended fuels — both subsidized and non-subsidized — to 10 percent, up from 7.5 percent. Power plants are also required to use 20 percent biodiesel in their energy mixes.

The installed capacity of the domestic biodiesel facilities totaled 5.6 million kiloliters (kl) each year, while the utilized capacity is above 2 million kl.

The measure aims at reducing the heavy reliance on fuel imports, which has widened the country’s trade deficit and put pressure on the state budget due to ballooning energy subsidy expenditure.

The mandatory blending policy last year pushed down diesel fuel imports by 1.05 million kl, equal to US$831 million.

However, the implementation of the policy has been hampered by various obstacles, from price issues to infrastructure for distribution and biodiesel blending.

Local absorption of blended subsidized fuel will only reach 1.32 million kl this year, or 90 percent of the 1.46 million kl targeted earlier.

The Indonesian Palm Oil Producers’ Association (Gapkindo) executive director Fadhil Hasan said that the government should react to counter Malaysia’s move as it would certainly impact on local palm oil exporters.

“We will certainly be unable to compete with our rivals because our price is higher. We hope the government will take a similar move to maintain the competitiveness of our exports,” he said in a text message.

The export tax should be pushed down to at least between 2.5 and 4 percent to anticipate tighter competition in overseas markets, according to Fadhil.

Friday 5 September 2014

Russia Prepares to Ban Indonesian Palm Oil !!!

TEMPO.COJakarta - The Russian government is attempting to limit the import of Indonesia’s palm oil into its country. Last April, Russian authorities submitted a notification to the World Trade Organization (WTO), which stated that the hydrogen peroxide content of Indonesia’s palm oil must not exceed 0.9 percent upon arrival at Russian ports.
"There are indications that Russia is deliberately doing so in order to further justify its imports from the Netherlands, which is cheaper," said Togar Sitanggang, a corporate affairs officer from PT Musim Mas, a palm oil exporter, yesterday.
Togar said Russian authorities knew that Indonesia could never meet such stringent requirements, because the average hydrogen peroxide concentration in Indonesian palm oil hovers around 5 percent. During the transport process, the concentration usually rises up to 8-9 percent. "The Russia's demand is unreasonable", said Togar. It must be noted that the average concentration of hydrogen peroxide in Indonesia’s palm oil has met the 5 percent international standard set by Codex.
The notification is expected to go into effect in October 2014. Palm oil exporters are beginning to look at other markets to keep the impact of the Russian import restriction to a minimum, said Togar.
The notification will only affect palm oil imported from Indonesia and Malaysia - which means that Russia could still import palm oils out of Rotterdam in the Netherlands, despite the fact that the average Dutch palm oil contains the same amount of hydrogen peroxide as Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil.
Togar concedes there might be other rationales behind the Russian move. For example, Russia might be considering to switch to soy oil, which has more usage than palm oil. What is clear, is that if the notification is approved by the WTO, then Indonesia needs to look at other markets, unless producers are willing to build palm oil refineries overseas to help ensure that the hydrogen peroxide concentration does not significantly increase during transport.
Previously, the directorate general of international trade at the Ministry of Trade Bachrul Chairi said Russia had a lot of potential to become one of Indonesia’s major trading partners. In 2013, Russia ranked as number 29th export destination for Indonesia, while trade volumes between Indonesia and Russia grew at an astonishing average rate of 45.1 percent per annum between 2009-2013.
As per 2013, Indonesia’s main exports to Russia include palm oil and its derivatives, footwear, coffee, copra, and rubber. On the other hand, Indonesia imports steel and/or iron and their derivatives, aircraft spare parts, military equipments, asbestos, and wheat.
Togar predicted that the notification will bring about a negative impact on Indonesia-Russia trade balance. Around 100,000-150,000 tons of palm oil needs to be exported elsewhere once the notification comes into effect.
YOLANDA RYAN ARMINDYA

Bloomberg Survey On MPOB August Figures

Here is the table taken from Bloomberg survey:

        Aug. 2014 (Survey)   July 2014 (MPOB)   Aug. 2013 (MPOB)
Output          1.88             1.67               1.74
Stockpiles      1.95             1.68               1.67
Exports         1.38             1.45               1.53
Imports         0.011            0.013              0.0075
Figures are in millions of tons.
NOTE: Import figure is the median of five estimates.
To contact the reporter on this story: Ranjeetha Pakiam in Kuala Lumpur atrpakiam@bloomberg.net

Good Article - Indonesian palm oil companies rushing to catch oleochemicals train

By Rujun Shen

SINGAPORE, Sept 5 (Reuters) - Indonesian palm oil companies, among the world's biggest, are rushing to bump up capacity to produce higher-value chemicals made from the vegetable oil by as much as a third, hoping to escape the paper-thin margins in their refining business.

Malaysian rivals Sime Darby Bhd, IOI Corp and Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd are already active in the $20 billion market for basic oleochemicals. Now their Indonesian counterparts such as Golden Agri-Resources Ltd are catching on.

Driving the Indonesians are shrinking crude palm oil refining margins, which plummeted to near zero earlier this year as refining capacity hit a record.

Tax changes in 2011 discouraging crude palm oil exports have sparked a wave of capacity building to make refined palm oil products, which enjoy lower export tax rates than crude palm oil. Now, refined palm oil products are hardly profitable.

But the race to build plants for oleochemicals, processed from refined palm oil products, is starting to stoke concerns of looming oversupply in the short term.

"We are concerned about the additional capacity coming online in Indonesia," said Tan Kean Hua, executive director of IOI Oleochemical Bhd and chairman of Malaysian Oleochemical Manufacturers Association. "If the additional capacity grows to a very large number, that will affect margins."

In Malaysia, production of basic oleochemicals on average enjoys margins of 8-12 percent, and production of derivatives from these chemicals has margins north of 20 percent, Tan said.

Indonesia is estimated to add 500,000 to 1 million tonnes of oleochemicals capacity next year, bringing the total to 3.5-4 million tonnes, compared with the current 2.5 million tonnes of capacity in Malaysia, Tan added.

He was confident, however, that Malaysia's experience in the industry will give them an upper hand in the competition.

Golden Agri, the world's second-largest palm oil planter by acreage after Malaysia's Sime Darby, plans to increase its oleochemicals capacity fourfold to 376,000 tonnes in two years.

Basic oleochemicals are divided into fatty acids and fatty alcohols. They can be further processed into products that end up in soaps, detergents, shampoos and other personal care products, whose long-term prospects are bright thanks to booming economies in emerging markets in Asia and elsewhere.

Golden Agri plans to add fatty alcohols to its oleochemicals portfolio by 2016, in addition to fatty acids that it already produces.

"It is also part of our growth strategy to widen our product portfolio and shift our production mix to higher value-added products," said Rafael Concepcion, Jr., Golden Agri's chief financial officer, expecting the oleochemicals sector to grow 3-5 percent annually.

Companies that are further along the oleochemicals path are now making their foray into the more sophisticated derivative products, with competition in the basic oleochemicals market growing stiffer.

This year, Wilmar International Ltd, the world's biggest palm oil processor, announced plans to acquire a Malaysian biodiesel and glycerine refinery, as well as a Europe-based surfactant business. It has also formed a joint venture in Ethiopia to produce specialty fats, soaps and detergents.

Wilmar declined to be interviewed for this article.

"Most of us are on the same track. We are going one step downstream to the derivatives business," said Tan of IOI.

Indonesia and Malaysia currently account for nearly half of the global capacity for basic forms of oleochemicals, according to Chris de Lavigne, global vice president of consulting at Frost & Sullivan.

The two countries supply around 85 percent of the world's palm oil. (Editing by Ryan Woo)

Thursday 4 September 2014

What Will Be The MPOB August Figures?

As reported in the Star newspaper, CIMB Research projected CPO August supply will up 13.7% or 1.89 million tonnes, with export figures less than 1.3 million tonnes given by cargo surveyors, what will be the end stock of August in MPOB figures that will be released on 10th of September? 2 million tonnes!? 

What will be the end month stock for Indonesia? Keep in your own data collection file and you may find it useful one day.

Tuesday 2 September 2014

How Much Will You Make If You Follow The Technical Trend Indicator

It is a superb 8-months rally for a technical trend indicator based on the short term trading strategy published in the 101indicators On Futures Trading book since its official launch in early this year.

If traders have all the proper data collection keeping in spreadsheet, they should be able to find that the accumulated profit for that particular technical trend indicator in short term trend trading will be more than 1000 ticks for the past 8 months from January to August. It is RM25,000.00 per contract. 

Believe it or not!

How Much Is The Cost Of Production In CPO

Prices risk tumbling further to approach the cost of production, according to Dorab Mistry, director at Godrej International Ltd. Private-sector estates in Malaysia and Indonesia have costs of about 1,500 ringgit to 1,600 ringgit a ton, Mistry said in e-mailed comments to Bloomberg News.

Sime Darby Bhd’s average cost of production in Malaysia and Indonesia is about 1,400 ringgit a ton, according to Franki Anthony Dass, executive vice president of the Petaling Jaya, Malaysia-based company’s plantation division.

(So, what will happen if CPO Futures price really falls to such level???)

Source: Bloomberg News