Australia raised an El Nino warning
after the Pacific Ocean showed renewed signs of the pattern that
can bring drought to parts of Asia and heavier-than-usual rain
to South America.
Climate models suggest current conditions will persist or
strengthen, prompting the status to be elevated from watch to
alert, the Bureau of Meteorology said on its website today.
The
alert indicates at least a 70 percent chance of El Nino, it
said... “Above-average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean
have warmed further in the past fortnight, while the Southern
Oscillation Index has generally been in excess of El Nino
thresholds for the past three months,” the Australian bureau
said.
“International climate models expect the warm tropical
Pacific Ocean temperatures to persist, with most models
predicting values will remain near or beyond El Nino thresholds
for the next two to three months.” ...
The last El Nino was from 2009 to
2010, and the Pacific has either been in its cooler state,
called La Nina, or neutral since then.
The weather bureau previously issued an El Nino alert on
May 6, predicting an event may develop as early as July. That
was downgraded to watch on July 29.
Not all indicators have shifted toward El Nino, with
tropical cloudiness near the Date Line and trade wind strength
close to average, suggesting the atmosphere is still not firmly
linked with the warmer ocean, the bureau said today.
Source: Bloomberg News