They are the three widely-followed and well-known edible oil analysts -Dorab Mistry, Thomas Mielke and James Fry - that we readers traders in CPO Futures blog need to know since they are the VIPs that always being invited to have their words in Palm Oil Conference.
Thomas Mielke had his comments being posted in previous post and here are all the news excerpts I get for readers traders to digest:
Dorab Mistry and Oil World have similar Malaysian palm oil market price outlooks for the coming month, with support being found near current levels, with futures expected to trade mostly in a 2,300-2,500 ringgit/tonne (~$700-$765/tonne) in the first quarter of 2015. Jan futures are currently trading at 2.263 ringgit/tonne ($692/tonne). The supportive market ideas are due to expectations for seasonal production and stocks declines over the coming months, as well as good veg oil demand from India and China, as well as better Malaysian domestic demand due to the increase in the country’s bio-diesel blend to 7% from 5% effective November 1. (news from rjomrt.com)
Prices of Malaysian crude palm oil may be capped at 2,300 ringgit ($704) if Brent crude prices fall to $85, leading industry analyst James Fry said on Wednesday. Fry, chairman of commodities consultancy LMC International, in September had forecast crude palm oil (CPO) prices to trade around $2,225 ringgit in February if Brent crude drops to $85 a barrel, or to jump to 2,465 ringgit if prices rise to $95 a barrel. "The recent strength of CPO prices has taken its EU premium over Brent to $100 and in Southeast Asia to $40, making unsubsidised biodiesel unprofitable," Fry told an industry conference in Kuala Lumpur. "If Brent settles at $85, 2,300 ringgit is the upside to local prices," he said. He added that declining Malaysian palm oil stocks will likely support the CPO premium over Brent in the next six months. Fry said as crude prices fall, OPEC exporters will likely boost output to maintain revenues, adding more pressure to both Brent and crude palm oil prices. However, he said export tax policies in the world's top palm growers Indonesia and Malaysia would help reinforce palm oil's competitiveness against Brent crude as a fuel feedstock. (news excerpts from Reuters)
Palm oil may rally as much as 10 percent by March as declining output in the world’s top producers depletes inventories, according to Dorab Mistry, director at Godrej International Ltd. “I believe the worst is over for oilseed farmers and plantations,” said Mistry, who’s traded palm oil for more than three decades. “After 10 December, I expect futures to rise steadily as production declines begin to bite and stocks decline. However, given the current macro economic outlook, I do not expect a bull market.”
Malaysia may produce between 19.6 million tons and 19.8 million tons this year, while Indonesian output may reach 30 million tons at best, he said, cutting his earlier forecasts for as much as 20 million tons and more than 30.5 million tons respectively. “Palm oil production is not performing to expectation and that is taking out some of the froth from production estimates, including my own,” Mistry said. “Palm oil production will not only enter its seasonal lean phase, it will also enter a new biological low cycle after November.”
Soybeans, soybean oil and meal prices have probably bottomed out, Mistry said. The next bout of bearishness may be seen only if the Brazilian crop shapes up well or if the U.S. yields are revised upwards of about 50 bushels per acre, he said. Soybean oil, an alternative to palm in food and fuel uses, tumbled to a five-year low of 31.52 cents a pound in Chicago on Sept. 10. Soybeans reached $9.04 a bushel on Oct. 1, the lowest for a most-active contract since July 2010.
Worldwide food demand for vegetable oils may expand by 3.5 million to 4 million tons in 2014-2015, while biodiesel consumption will increase by only 1 million tons given the loss of new discretionary blending demand following the slump in energy prices, Mistry said. This “is a good time to buy plantation and processing company equities,” Mistry said today and listed Wilmar International Ltd. (WIL) and Sime Darby Bhd. (SIME) as his top picks. “In fact, with my forecast of improved prices for 2015, the timing could not be better. Downside can now come only from massive South American crops or from contra-cyclical jump in crude palm oil production or from a major world economic crisis.” (news excerpts from businessweek.com bloomberg news)