October Losses Posted In 101indicators Blog

Here is the accumulated losses for the month of October at 72 ticks or RM1,800.00 per contract size for technical trend indicator A even though it should have been a profit because the long 2468 is still holding on and will be most likely carried forward to November update. Traders may just go to 101indicators' futures blog to check the other two technical trend indicators accumulated profit and loss which has just been updated too.

Traders must understand that it is the paperwork that traders must work it out themselves in recording their own trades in order to discipline themselves. The data page which is shown in 101indicators' futures blog can be used as a guide to follow. However, by just looking at 101indicators' futures blog data page without doing own spreadsheet, traders won't be able to know how hard to do such data collection over a long period of time which is a kind of discipline for trading success.

The stop and reverse sell signals for tomorrow will be in the range of 2515 to 2530 which is about 60 to 70 ticks below the current price at 2590.

October Profit Trades But A Losing Month

60-minute Technical view: Due to the multiple losing trades in the beginning of the October month, technical trend indicator A accumulated 109 ticks losses in one week before starting see some recovery of 46 ticks and 56 ticks profit in two trades. However, it still encountered some losing trades in the range between 2450s level before holding the long 2468 until today which see 100 ticks of floating profit in one trade.

It is believed that this October will be still a losing month as shown in the spreadsheet that soon be updated before this Friday close in 101indicators' blog in the DATA page. This is because the profit trade that long 2468 at 4pm on 28th October will probably not be realised since the SAR sell trade signal is remained very low today and tomorrow.    

Palm Oil 4pm Short 2389 With 7 Ticks Profit

Technical View - The long 2382 at 1130am on 16th October had seen a floating profit of 50 ticks at high 2432 the next morning before the technical trend indicator A was hit with a stop and reverse sell trade signal 2389 at 4pm in the afternoon with only 7 ticks of profit. It generated another losses of 18 ticks in total in the following 3 stop and reverse trades until the long 2395 at 1230pm on 18th October, Friday. 

The long 2395 on technical trend indicator A is holding on until today, seeing high 2446 after opening at 1030am. Its 60-minute stop and reverse trade signals for the next 10 trading sessions will be in a range of 2401 to 2407.

The accumulated loss of this October month had reached 93 ticks which was meant that traders who followed technical trend indicator A had suffered more than RM2,300.00 per contract size until 18th October when the long 2395 was initiated. We shall see how much the long 2395 can help reducing the losses or not in next few trading days.

China Edible Vegetable Oil Industry Report 2013-2015

As one of the world's most important importers of oilseeds and vegetable oil, China imported 9.6 million tons of vegetable oil and 62.28 million tons of oilseeds in 2012, both setting a record high. As the main imported oilseed, soybean accounted for 93.7% of the total imports of oilseeds; as the major imported edible oil, palm oil occupied 66.1% of the total imports of vegetable oil. At the same time, rapeseed oil and olive oil imports also showed fast growth, respectively up 210% and 25.9% YoY. 

In 2012, Wilmar International reached revenue of $45.46 billion, 46.7% of which came from the Chinese market. The subsidiary Yihai Kerry serves as one of China's largest grain and oil processing groups, with soybean market share above 10%, covering "Arowana", "Ingot" "Orchid" and other brands, of which, "Arowana" is the edible oil brand with the most complete oil varieties in China.

In 2012, COFCO presented oil processing capacity of 11.06 million tons / year, in possession of "Fulinmen", "Fuzhanggui", "Sihai", "Xiyingying", "Guhua" and other brands, with soybean oil market share of nearly 10%. Its edible oil business is mainly concentrated in China Agri-Industries Holdings Limited and China Foods Limited listed on HKEx. In the first half of 2013, China Agri-Industries Holdings Limited witnessed a year-on-year decline of 3.4% in net income, and China Foods Limited suffered a loss of 190 million Hong Kong dollars...  

Read more here: SACBEE REPORTLINKER

Palm Oil 1130am Long 2382 With 19 Ticks Loss

Just after yesterday's update on short 2363 on December contract month, the change of new contract month today had seen a cut loss and turn long trade signal at 1130am this morning at 2382 with theoretical loss of 19 ticks on 2 different contract months.

The technical trend indicator A using 60-minute data collection will hold on the long 2382 from now on with a probable stop and reverse sell signals from 2379 to 2388 for tomorrow's 5 trading sessions - 1130am, 1230pm, 4pm, 5pm and 6pm. 

Palm Oil 6pm Sold 2363 With 46 Ticks Profit

After turning long 2317 on Friday's last seconds spike as stated in previous few posts, technical trend indicator A had finally took profit and turned selling 2363 at 6pm close just now. It generated a profit of 46 ticks or RM1,150.00 in this short term technical trend that helped reducing the 109 ticks or RM2,725.00 accumulated losses since the beginning of this month.

The stop and reverse buy signals for Wednesday and Thursday will be in the range of 2373 to 2377. There is a new contract month, January 2014 contract month, for the 3rd active month which was closed higher at 2367 at 6pm today, but we will use the new contract month instead of old contract month for the SAR buy signals even though it was higher by 4 ticks due to the consistency on every 15th of a month where there is a change of contract month for the 3rd active month. 

Again, the SAR trade signals as given above may have been changed and will not be available on time for public viewing. Therefore, the SAR trade signals for Wednesday and Thursday may just be a guide only.

Selamat Hari Raya Haji to all Muslim cpo futures traders. 

MPOB, Bloomberg And Technical View

After the stop and reverse buy signal 2317 on the last Friday 6pm as stated in the previous technical view and comments, short term technical trend indicator A is holding on its long 2317 until today that has helped reducing some losses accumulated through the multiple losing trades since early of this month. It will remain buy signal for next few 60-minute trading sessions ended this Friday 6pm with stop and reverse sell signals in a range between 2338 and 2352. There is a possible change on the stop and reverse sell signals but will not be updated on time for public viewing.

MPOB has released it official supply and demand figures for the September month lower against the estimate survey by Bloomberg but higher still against MPOB's August figures. Production 1.912 mil (Bloomberg 2 mil), End Stock 1.784 mil (Bloomberg 1.89 mil) and Export 1.605 mil (Bloomberg 1.55 mil). 

To compare MPOB last month figures, please go to 101indicators Blog's DATA page.

  

Traders: 27% Of Time Commodity Prices Wrong

Commodities traders who buy and sell as much as $5.67 trillion of raw materials a year say the benchmark prices for everything from oil to iron ore to gasoline are wrong as often as 27 percent of the time...

...“Commodities markets have traditionally been a backwater that only specialists would have been involved with. Clearly these markets haven’t changed with the times.”... ARE YOU CPO FUTURES SPECIALIST? 

...Agricultural commodities had the greatest accuracy, according to the survey... INTERESTING!

...The FTC is looking at the impact that possible manipulation of the benchmark could have on physical and derivative oil markets in the U.S.... MANIPULATION IS EVERYWHERE!!! ...Even for gold, with its pricing system that has lasted more than 90 years, it would be “naive to discount the possibility of price manipulation,”... 

...“How do you define manipulation? When an Australian miner shakes a hand with a giant smelter in China and they agree on a term price?”. GET IT!?

Source: Bloomberg

Another Losing Trades On FCPO Hourly Trend Indicators

Started from October 2013, majority of technical trend indicators on FCPO short term trading was hit with multiple losing trades again, technical trend indicator A was also hit with 109 ticks or RM2,725.00 per contract size in accumulated losses so far. Its last stop and reverse buy signal was 2317 on last Friday's close at 6pm.

60-minute FCPO technical trend indicator A will have the stop and reverse trade signals at a range of between 2300 and 2308 for next 10 trading sessions based on 1130am, 1230pm, 4pm, 5pm and 6pm, there are total 5 trading sessions on every trading day for the 60-minute short term technical trend trading in this blog's updates.

Please refer to 101indicators blog in the DATA page to check the performance of the 3 technical trend indicators A, B and C in FCPO column which had the latest update for September month. Worst performer, Indicator A, was hit with accumulated loss of 61 ticks per contract size and another 109 ticks in October so far as mentioned in the above paragraph. Therefore, if a short term technical trader does not have enough "capital / margin ratio", the losses will definitely stop the trader from trading already. 

Think about it if you seriously wish to be a technical trend trader with such a calculated risk on cpo futures trading!?  

Indonesia Palm Oil Export Drop

The country may see a decline in palm oil exports mainly due to stagnant production and greater domestic consumption following a government regulation on increased biodiesel mix in diesel fuel, according to the Indonesia Palm Oil Board.

Derom Bangun, the board’s chairman, said the country needed to revise this year’s crude palm oil (CPO) production target as production would be stagnant due to inclement weather...

Derom said that the country had previously aimed for 28 million tons of CPO production this year, but due to a prolonged rainy season, which hampered oil palm cultivation, Indonesia might only produce 26.7 million tons of CPO by the end of 2013...

“If the government’s policy of increasing the biodiesel mix to 10 percent in diesel fuel goes according to schedule in October, it will push national biodiesel consumption to 1.2 million kiloliters this year,” ...

Given the country’s annual diesel consumption of 33 million kiloliters, 10 percent means 3.3 million kiloliters of biodiesel or equal to 3 million tons of CPO...

Palm oil imports to the EU account for 10 percent of global production, and nearly half is imported through the Netherlands, Reuters reports... Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil producer, has been expanding its oil palm estates by 200,000 hectares a year...

The news is taken from the Jakarta Post.