Technical Trend Indicators ABC

As traders can see in the 101indicators blog's DATA page, the short term technical trend indicators A, B and C for the month of September have been updated as -61, -11 and 20 respectively for the monthly accumulated profit and loss as per contract size basis.

Technical trend indicator A was down 61 ticks in September and was the worst performer in the last 9 months with only 98 ticks of profit being accumulated as per contract size basis. However, technical trend indicators B and C had accumulated 461 and 377 ticks respectively as per contract size basis, meaning they have about RM10,000.00 gross profit per contract size if being followed strictly since the beginning of this year 2013. 

As we still have another 3 trading months ended year 2013, let's eye on technical trend indicator A whether it can have a chance to be the best among the Three after being the 2nd top earner in year 2012 with 1061 ticks or about RM26,000.00 gross profit per contract size in that year. 

Technical view: Selling 2303 on 25th September took a turn by buying back and turning long 2298 on 27th September at 5pm with a faction of profit while keeping the long until today. Without providing further update if there is any spike of prices out of a certain range for technical indicator A, the 60-minute SAR trade signals on Tuesday and Wednesday will be 2296 for technical indicator A.  

Indonesia Palm Oil: Rising Stocks Dropping Prices

Based on USDA, Indonesia palm oil stockpiles will rise 66% to 3 million MT by the end of 2013/14... Export outlook in 2012/13 was 20.3 million and 21.3 million in 2013/2014 due to expectation stronger demand...

According to Greenpeace, Indonesia already has 6 million hectares of oil palm plantations but has plans for another 4 million by 2015...

Dorab Mistry told Bloomberg that cpo futures could drop to 2000 by January...

Source: foodnavigator.com

Technical view: after hitting multiple losses in last few trades, indicator A had since turned selling 2303 at 4pm on 25th September. It will do stop and reverse buy only if any trading session, in the 60-minute short term FCPO technical indicator A, show a last or closing price above 2297 today; or else, keep holding on the short 2303. While the coming Monday, its SAR will be in a range of 2292 to 2296. 

As the SAR trade signals may have changed due to sudden spike of prices, the SAR trade signals here is given only for your reference, no further updates will be given until next posting. 

EU Olive And Sunflower Oil Supply Rebound

Production of vegetable oils and fats in the European Union is set to rebound in the next season as sunflower seed and olive oil output jumps, Oil World said. 

Sunflower oil production in the EU may top 2.9 million metric tons in the 2013-14 season starting Oct. 1, the most on record and 16 percent higher than a year earlier, the Hamburg-based researcher said in an e-mailed report. Olive oil output will surge 40 percent from the prior season, helping bring total EU production of 17 oils and fats to 22.6 million tons, 3.6 percent more than a year earlier. Last year, some crops in southern and eastern Europe were hurt by drought...

EU consumption of oils and fats, including for food and biofuels, may total 29.8 million tons, ... Palm oil will account for the majority of EU imports at 6.3 million tons. 

World production of sunflower oil may be about 15 million tons in 2013-14, about 12 percent more than a year earlier, Oil World said. Output in Russia, the second-biggest producer, after Ukraine, may climb 11 percent to 3.59 million tons, helping the country’s exports jump 29 percent to 1.4 million tons. 

“Following a season of insufficient supplies that resulted in a decline of stocks worldwide, the global sun oil balance is expected to return to a surplus,” Oil World said. “A sharp increase of sunflower oil usage is likely to occur in the European Union and China as well as in many North African and Middle East countries, promoted by the exceptionally attractive sun oil prices.” 

Source: Bloomberg - EU Olive, Sunflower Oil Surge Leads Vegetable Oil Supply Rebound

Palm Oil Crude Oil Biodiesel And Technical Trend

Referring to Business Times: here is the interesting words to digest...

...LMC International Ltd chairman Dr James Fry, who was also present at the POTS series, took a more optimistic view. He said the price gap between crude petroleum and CPO favours more consumption of palm biodiesel. The current CPO price of RM2,300 per tonne works out to be US$85 per barrel cheaper than crude petroleum. "We're back to where we were nine months ago." The Malaysian Palm Oil Board's data shows that for the first eight months of this year, biodiesel exports rose sixfold to 114,414 tonnes, compared with the same period a year ago...

...Thomas Mielke said global production of 17 oils and fats has doubled in the last 20 years to 189 million tonnes this year. Crude palm oil (CPO) alone makes up 56.5 million tonnes, or 30 per cent of the total, clinching the top spot. "By year-end, Malaysia is set to produce 19.2 million tonnes of CPO while the volume in Indonesia is expected to touch 29 million tonnes," Mielke said on the sidelines of the seminar.

Technical view - Today and tomorrow will have a range of SAR trade signals affecting technical indicator A from 2311 to 2301. If FCPO price is pulling away from this range, a short term trend may have been formed either up north or down south based on the 60-minute data file, that is, once below 2300 in next few sessions, FCPO will be a downtrend and once above 2310 in next few sessions FCPO will be a uptrend. 

The Data In 101indicators Blog

As a start for short term technical trend traders on cpo futures 60-minute technical trend trading, I will give an indicator that has stop and reverse (SAR) trade signals that much easier to remember even though the SAR may be changed after posting this write up which I will not have time to update instantly.

If traders wish to check the monthly performance of the indicator, traders may just go click this 101indicators blog and see the data or figures that has been telling all the monthly profit and loss in the DATA page for indicators A, B and C since year 2012 for comparison.

I will only talk on indicator A in FCPO section which is the most easiest for remember on the SAR trade signals. Here is the next 10 trading sessions SAR for 60-minute technical trend trading or until next Monday 6pm - 2326 - after the indicator A turned selling 2323 at 6pm last Wednesday on 18 September and keep holding on. It means at any time as stated below here, trader will do stop and reverse trade based on the 2326 or else just hold on the short 2323.

All the SAR trade signals will be based on the following time: 1130am, 1230pm, 4pm, 5pm and 6pm, with total 5 trading sessions everyday.

Too Much Palm Oil In Gasoline - NL Times

The use and processing of the controversial biofuel palm oil in the Netherlands has doubled in the past six years, up to 1.3 million tonnes in 2012 . This is stated in a research report published on Monday by the European umbrella organization of Milieudefensie.

Wednesday, the European Parliament will approve a proposal of the European Commission, to reduce the use of food crops (including palm oil) to a maximum of 5 percent in fuel mixes. Milieudefensie calls on parliamentarians to support this plan .

Largest importer - Throughout the European Union, the use of palm oil for biofuels has increased since 2006 by 365 percent. That is much more than expected, say the researchers. At this moment, the biofuel mix contains 20 percent palm oil in Europe . Netherlands is, of the EU countries, the largest importer and processor of palm oil. According to the report, the increase is mainly due to the EU’s policy to encourage the use of biofuel in the transport sector

Unacceptable -  “It is unacceptable that we are stuffing our tanks in the Netherlands and Europe with palm oil, while elsewhere in the world this leads to deforestation and food shortages,” says campaigner Geert Ritsema of Milieudefensie. International institutions such as the World Food Organization of the United Nations (FAO) warn already for years on the problems surrounding bio-fuel, according to Ritsema. Due to the increasing demand for this fuel for cars there are more and more oil palm plantations.

Palm oil - Palm oil is vegetable oil which is extracted from the fruit of the oil palm. Palm oil contains more saturated fat than other oils. Saturated fats are known to be unhealthy. Palm oil is considered the most widely used vegetable oil in the world and is used in making all kinds of food products, such as margarine, frying oil and biscuits, but also in bio-fuel and products such as soap and lipstick.

Oil palm plantations - Malaysia and Indonesia have the most plantations. Indonesia has more than six million hectares planted with palm trees and oil palm plantations in Malaysia cover about 4 million hectares. For this purpose tropical rainforests are cut down and burned, leading to additional greenhouse gas emissions. The companies that operate the oil palm plantations have all strong arguments to recommend the use of palm oil. These rich companies have no message to the equally strong counterarguments, which indicate that valuable farmland disappears, that there is much impact on the environment, forests disappears and the rights of indigenous people are violated.

Source: NL Times