CPO Futures Sell If 5pm 3301 Or Lower

Based on high 3340, CPO Futures hourly indicator will probably take profit and turn sell if 5pm palm oil price is 3301 or lower.

( If 5pm palm oil price is assumed at 3325, CPO Futures hourly indicator will turn sell if 6pm is closed 3306 or lower )

CPO Futures Sell If 4pm 3295 Or Lower

CPO Futures hourly indicator will turn sell if 4pm palm oil price is 3295 or lower, based on high 3336.

Today's update may go until for 5pm signal only and no comment for 6pm signal update. Sorry for inconvenience.

However, for traders who had purchased my trading software, you should be able to know the signal for 6pm now.

Palm Oil Futures Sell If 1230pm Below 3290

CPO Futures hit its first profit target 3332 and now CPO Futures hourly indicator will turn sell if 1230pm palm oil price is closed 3289 or lower.

CPO Futures Profit Targets Start 3332 And 3352

CPO Futures hourly indicator will remain holding buy 3272 with profit targets start at 3332, 3352 and 3372.

CPO Futures hourly indicator will turn sell signal if 1130am palm oil price is 3271 or lower, based on high 3323.

CPO Futures Sell If 4pm 3258 Or Lower

CPO Futures hourly indicator will turn sell if 4pm palm oil price is 3258 or lower, which has been adjusted higher compared to 1230pm signal.

Palm Oil Futures Sell If 1230pm 3231 Or Lower

CPO Futures hourly indicator will remain holding buy 3272 unless 1230pm palm oil price is at 3231 or lower.

Profit targets stay at 3332 and above.

CPO Futures Buy 3272 At 5pm

CPO Futures hourly indicator cut loss and turned buy 3272 at 5pm with a loss of 36 ticks against selling 3236 at 1230pm today.

CPO Futures hourly indicator will cut loss and turn sell if 6pm palm oil price is closed at 3230 or lower.

Profit targets start 3332 and 3352 which will be hard to reach today.

CPO Futures Buy If 5pm 3251 Or Higher

CPO Futures hourly indicator almost cut loss and turned buy signal at 4pm.

CPO Futures hourly indicator will turn buy signal if 5pm palm oil price is above 3250, which has been adjusted lower compare to earlier data at 4pm at 3261.

CPO Futures Hourly Sell 3236 At 1230pm

CPO Futures hourly indicator finally turned sell 3236 at 1230pm with a loss of 10 ticks.

CPO Futures hourly indicator will cut loss and turn buy if 4pm palm oil price is at 3261 or higher.

However, the profit target 3286 earlier done at 3295 had helped reducing the loss ( profit actually ) and the stop loss sell order 3246 yesterday if implemented after the opening today would have reducing the losses too, at above 3240.

Palm Oil Sell If 1130am 3229 Or Lower

CPO Futures hourly indicator will turn sell signal if 1130am palm oil price is 3229 or lower.

Plan To Limit The Role Of Speculators

There is a good article to share from Reuters... Big commodity traders mount last stand on U.S. curbs. The story line is:

The plan to impose "position limits", which has been under debate since prices first surged to records in 2007 and 2008...

The "position limits" fight comes as regulators worldwide are working to draw up and implement hundreds of new rules for banks and markets following the 2007-2009 financial crisis...

The U.S. banks, such as firms Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Chase & Co., took in $5.5 billion in revenues from trading in commodity markets last year, versus a record $11 billion in 2009, according to U.S. government data...

In a letter to Gensler, Cantwell and 11 other senators urged him to use his Dodd-Frank authority against "excessive speculation"...

CPO Futures Sell If 6pm 3224 Or Lower

CPO Futures hourly indicator will turn sell if 6pm palm oil price is closed at 3224 or lower.

Sell stop order may be adjusted to 3246 now.

Palm Oil Futures Sell If 1230pm 3207 Or Lower

CPO Futures hourly indicator will turn sell if 1230pm palm oil price is at 3207 or lower.

CPO Futures profit target 3286 was finally hit at better price 3295 at opening and profit target 3306 almost got hit.

Stop loss sell order is remained.

Palm Oil Sell If 1130am 3215 Or Lower

CPO Future hourly indicator will cut loss and turn sell signal if 1130am palm oil price is 3215 or lower.

Profit targets will remain starting form 3286 and 3306.

Sell stop order may be placed at 3236 now.

CPO Futures Sell If 6pm 3221 Or Lower

CPO Futures hourly indicator will cut loss and turn sell if 6pm palm oil is closed at 3221 or lower.
Profit targets is remained at 3286, 3306 and higher, and sell stop 3216 is remained too.

CPO Futures Sell If 5pm 3232 Or Lower

The stop loss order, at 3216 sell stop, will be remained even though CPO Futures hourly indicator will cut loss and turn sell not far away from the current price 3222 now, which sell signal is initiated if 5pm palm oil price is 3232 or lower.

Intertek And SGS Palm Oil Export Data

Dear traders, please be informed that all palm oil export data from both palm oil cargo surveyors, Intertek Agri Services and SGS Malaysia, in this blog will mostly be updated in the page CPO Data of this blog without any write up from today onwards.

Therefore, just remember that these data will come out every month on the date of 10th, 15th, 20th, 25th and every last day of the month. Intertek palm oil data will be out in morning session while SGS figures will be released in afternoon session.

CPO Futures Sell If 4pm 3202 Or Lower

Profit Targets has been adjusted lower and started from 3286 and 3306.
CPO Futures hourly indicator will cut loss and turn sell if 4pm palm oil price is 3202 or lower and sell stop order to cut loss may be initiated now at 3216.

Profit Targets Start 3306 From 1130am

Profit targets had been adjusted lower from 3306. Next is remain 3326 and 3246.
CPO Futures hourly indicator will cut loss and turn sell only if 1230pm palm oil price is 3190 or lower.

CPO Futures Sell If 1130am 3201 Or Lower

CPO Futures hourly indicator will cut loss and turn sell if 1130am palm oil price is 3201 or lower.
Profit targets start at 3326 and 3346.

CPO Futures Hourly Buy 3246 At 5pm

CPO Futures hourly indicator turned buy 3246 at 5pm with a profit of 182 ticks. It will cut loss and turn sell if 6pm palm oil is closed at 3216 or lower.

CPO Futures Buy If 5pm 3234 And Above

CPO Futures hourly indicator will probably take profit and turn buy signal at 5pm as the current palm oil price is traded above 3234 buy signal with more than 20 points higher now at 3255.  

CPO Futures Buy If 4pm 3268 Or Higher

Based on low 3163, CPO Futures hourly indicator will turn buy signal if 4pm palm oil price is at 3268 and above.
CPO Futures hit its 250 ticks target at 3178 also.

Palm Oil Buy If 1230pm 3302 Or Higher

Based on low 3200, CPO Futures hourly indicator will take profit and turn buy signal if 1230pm palm oil price is  3302 or higher.
CPO Futures profit target 225 ticks at 3303 was also being hit.

CPO Futures Hit 200 Ticks Profit Target

Besides, CPO Futures profit target 3278 was traded at the opening, it also reached the 175 and 200 ticks of profit target at 3253 and 3228 respectively just now.

Palm Oil Buy If 1130am 3363 Or Higher

Based on low 3291, CPO Futures hourly indicator will take profit and turn buy if 1130am palm oil price is at 3363 or higher.
Next profit target is 3278.

CPO Futures Buy If 6pm 3355 And Above

CPO Futures hourly indicator is finally adjusted its turn buy signal near to current price, which is buy if 6pm palm oil price is 3355 and above.

CPO Futures Buy If 5pm 3372 And Above

CPO Futures hourly indicator's turn buy signal is getting lower, that is it will turn buy if 5pm palm oil price is 3372 and above as compared to 4pm 3390 buy signal.

CPO Futures Buy If 4pm 3390 Or HIgher

CPO Futures hourly indicator will still remain sell 3428 unless 4pm palm oil price is at 3390 or higher.

Palm Oil Buy If 1230pm 3413 Or Higher

CPO Futures hourly indicator will only turn buy if 1230pm palm oil price is 3413 or higher which is still very high from current price even though it has been adjusted lower from 3447 level.

Palm Oil Buy If 1130am 3446 Or Higher

CPO Futures hourly indicator's turn buy signal will remain higher for 1130am at above 3445.
Profit target 3303 got hit yesterday while 3278 is the next target that quite hard to reach since CBOT's soybean oil was closed little change overnight.

CPO Futures Hit Targets 3348 And 3328

Based on low 3338, CPO Futures hourly indicator will only turn buy signal if 5pm palm oil price is at 3478 or higher. Thus it is very hard to turn buy signal at 6pm too which will remain very high for the turn buy signal.
CPO Futures has hit both profit targets at 3348 and 3328 at 80 and 100 ticks profit respectively. Next target will be 3303 and 3278.

CPO Futures Buy If 4pm 3479 Or Higher

CPO Futures hourly indicator will remain its selling 3428 unless 4pm palm oil price is at 3479 or higher is 100 over ticks away from the current price.
CPO Futures profit targets may start at 3348, 3328 and 3303.

Palm Oil Buy If 1130am 3460 Or Higher

CPO Futures hourly indicator will remain sell 3428 unless 1130am palm oil price is at 3460 and above.
CPO Futures hourly indicator has accumulated profit of 100 ticks, after selling 3428 with profit 108 ticks, for this month.

CPO Futures Sell 3428 At 4pm

CPO Futures hourly indicator took profit and turned sell 3428 at 4pm. It will cut loss and turn buy if 5pm palm oil futures is above 3450.

CPO Futures Sell If 4pm 3430 Or Lower

CPO Futures hourly indicator will turn sell if 4pm pal oil price is at 3430 or lower, based on high 3489.
This morning target 3470 was done 3486 at opening but 3495 next target not done.

CPO Futures Sell If 1130am 3357 Or Lower

Based on high 3450, CPO Futures hourly indicator will turn sell if 1130am palm oil price is at 3357 or lower.
Since earlier targets were all hit, trader can now target at 3470 and 3495 as the next 150 and 175 ticks profit taking level respectively.

CPO Futures Hit Target 3380 And 3400

CPO Futures hourly indicator hit its profit targets 3380 at 3389 at 1030am market opening and 3400 as its 3rd profit target. Next 3425 and 3450.
CPO Futures hourly indicator will remain buy signal at 1230pm as it will be very hard to sell down below 3290 at 1230pm today.

Profit Targets 3380 3400 3425 And 3450

CPO Futures hourly indicator will cut loss and turn sell if 1130am palm oil futures is 3293 or lower.
Profit targets will be remained at 3380 and 3400, with 2 new targets at 3425 and 3450, after taking 3360 first profit target yesterday.

CPO Futures Sell If 6pm 3284

CPO Futures hourly indicator will cut loss and turn sell only if palm oil futures is closed below 3285 at 6pm.
Target is remained at 3380 and higher after 3360 target had been done.

Profit Target 3360 Hit And Next 3380

CPO Futures hourly indicator reached its first profit target 3360, next is 3380 and 3400.
CPO Futures hourly indicator will remain buy 3320 provided palm oil futures is not sold down to 3286 at 5pm.

CPO Futures Sell If 4pm 3293 Or Lower

CPO Futures hourly indicator will remain holding buy 3320 unless 4pm palm oil futures is at 3293 or lower.
Target profits may start at 3360 and 3380.

Palm Oil Sell If 1130am 3287 Or Lower

CPO Futures hourly indicator will remain buy 3320 unless 1130am palm oil price is at 3287 or lower.

Invest Malaysia 2011

Invest Malaysia (IM) 2011, organised annually by Bursa Malaysia, will showcase over 30 Malaysian corporates over a period of 2 days at Shangri-La Hotel Kuala Lumpur on 12-13 April 2011. With co-organised and co-sponsored by Maybank Investment Bank, Invest Malaysia (IM) 2011 Conference will see witness the participation of the Malaysian Industrial Development Authority (MIDA) which will promote direct investment opportunities to delegates.

Media Releases From Bursa Malaysia On 15 March 2011, Click the Link: http://www.klse.com.my/website/bm/media_centre/media_releases.html?/bm/media_centre/media_releases/years/2011/20110315_132455219.html

CPO Futures Sell If 6pm 3293 Or Lower

CPO Futures hourly indicator will cut loss and turn sell if 6pm palm oil price is closed at 3293 or lower, otherwise hold buy 3320.

CPO Futures Buy 3320 At 4pm

CPO Futures hourly indicator cut loss and turn buy 3320 with another loss of 36 ticks at 4pm, and this month accumulated profit has been totally wiped out. Here, trader should look back the last few months trades as those past few months had created and handsome profits and it is fair to say that it is acceptable to bear some losses before trader can continue accumulating more profits in the coming months.
CPO Futures hourly indicator will cut loss and turn sell again if 5pm palm oil price is at 3296 or lower. Otherwise hold BUY 3320.

CPO Futures Sell 3284 At 1230pm

CPO Futures hourly indicator is hit with another loss of 70 ticks artificially due to change of contract month, and turned sell 3284 at 1230pm.
Just over last 3 trades, profit of this month has been wiped out about 200 over ticks.
CPO Futures hourly indicator will cut loss and turn buy if 4pm palm oil price is at 3308 or higher.

Palm Oil Sell If 1230pm 3298 Or Lower

CPO Futures hourly indicator will cut loss and turn sell if 1230pm palm oil price is at 3298 or lower.
As today is the new contract month, MAY, position long 3354 was in April contract. Thus, based on 20 points spread, trader must get out their position accordingly when the signal is turned sell if trader did not cut losses at 3319.

Palm Oil Sell If 1130am 3255 Or Lower

CPO Futures hourly indicator will face another cut loss and turn sell signal with CBOT soybean oil went limit down. The buying 3354 signal may cut loss at 3319 as a stop loss order after palm oil futures market open.
CPO Futures hourly indicator will only turn sell if 1130am palm oil price is at 3255 or lower which is about 100 ticks lower from yesterday closing price.

CPO Futures Will Remain Buy 3354 At 6pm

CPO Futures hourly indicator will remain buy 3354 at 6pm close, as it is very hard for palm oil price being sell down to close below 3260 at 6pm that is about 140 ticks below the current price.

CPO Futures Buy 3354 At 4pm

CPO Futures hourly indicator cut loss and turned buy at 4pm with another loss of 80 ticks. What a bad trade!

CPO Futures hourly indicator will cut turn sell signal if 5pm palm oil price is below 3270.

SGS Palm Oil Export 520k MT

Cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd said March 1-15 palm oil exports fell 15% to 520,463 metric tons.

Earlier in the day, Intertek put at 526,407 metric tons, down 17%.

CPO Futures Sell 3274 At 1230pm

CPO Futures hourly indicator cut loss 66 ticks and turned selling 3274 at 1230pm.

Stop loss order 3305 had however helped to reduce 31 ticks further losses from 3305 to 3274 if trader did place the stop loss sell order. Thus trader losses is 35 ticks, not 66 ticks.

CPO Futures hourly indicator will turn buy signal again if 4pm palm oil price is at above 3290.

Palm Oil Sell If 1230pm 3274 Or Lower

CPO Futures hourly indicator will only cut loss and turn sell signal if 1230am palm oil futures is at 3274 or lower, based on low 3250.

Intertek Palm Oil Export 526k MT

Cargo surveyor Intertek Agri Services said Malaysia's palm oil exports during the March 1-15 period fell 17% from a month earlier to 526,407 metric tons.

Palm Oil Sell Stop Hit 3305

CPO Futures hourly indicator hit stop loss 3305. However, if trader put the order before market open, stop loss will be hit at 3250. Therefore, never place stop loss order before market open.

CPO Futures hourly indicator will only turn sell if 1130am palm oil price is 3274 due to low 3250 was created this morning at opening.

Palm Oil Sell If 1130am 3303 Or Lower

CPO Futures hourly indicator will cut loss and turn sell if 1130am palm oil futures is at 3303 or lower.

Sell stop order 3305 can be placed after opening if trader did not place the stop loss order between 5pm and 6pm yesterday.

CPO Futures Sell If 6pm Below 3310

CPO Futures hourly indicator will cut loss and turn sell if 6pm palm oil price is close 3309 or lower. If trader does not wish to risk overnight buying 3340, sell stop order to cut loss at 3305 can be initiated to protect overnight risk.

CPO Futures Sell If 5pm 3304 Or Lower

CPO Futures hourly indicator will cut loss and turn sell signal if 5pm palm oil price is below 3305 today.

So far, the accumulated gross profit for this month is 244 ticks or RM6,100.00 per contract if we strictly follow the entry and exit point of the CPO Futures hourly indicator.

CPO Futures Buy 3340

CPO Futures hourly indicator 4pm turned buy 3340 with a profit of 96 ticks. If traders follow the profit maximisation strategy with 150 ticks profit at 3286, 3306 and 3336, the average return for this last trade will be much better.

CPO Futures Buy If 4pm 3323 Or Higher

CPO Futures hourly indicator will take profit and turn buy if 4pm palm oil price is 3323 or higher, based on low 3281.

Profit Target 3286 Get Hit

Profit Target 150 ticks at 3286 is being triggered. Next targets 3261 and 3236 which seem to be very hard to reach at this round of selling trade as indicator has reached a highly oversold zone.

CPO Futures hourly indicator will not turn buy at 1230pm. It will possibly only turn buy easily at 4pm if 1230pm palm oil price is closed above 3310 based on low 3281.

Palm Oil Buy If 1230pm 3331 Or Higher

CPO Futures hourly indicator will take profit and turn buy if 1230pm palm oil price is 3331 or higher, based on low 3296.

Profit Target 3336 and 3306

Profit target 3336 had been done at 3335 at opening and profit target 3306 also get done after palm oil price is traded to low 3296.

CPO Futures hourly indicator however will turn buy now if 1130am palm oil price is 3346 or higher, based on low 3296.

Palm Oil Buy If 1130am 3397

Based on low 3356, CPO Futures hourly indicator will remain sell 3436 unless 1130am palm oil price is at 3397 or higher.

Profit targets can be started at 3336, 3306 and 3286.

CPO Futures Buy If 6pm Above 3445

CPO Futures hourly indicator will remain holding sell 3436 unless palm oil price is at 3446 or higher at 6pm close today.

CPO Futures Sell 3436 At 4pm

CPO Futures hourly indicator cut 42 ticks losses and turned sell 3436 at 4pm.

CPO Futures hourly indicator will turn buy if 5pm palm oil price is 3454 or higher, based on low 3414.

CPO Futures Remain Buy If 4pm 3447

CPO Futures hourly indicator will remain buy signal if 4pm palm oil price is 3447 and above, based on low 3414. Here it means CPO Futures hourly indicator will only sell if 4pm palm oil price is below 3447 and not 3460 based on earlier comment.

CPO Futures Buy 3478 At 1230pm

CPO Futures hourly indicator will cut loss and turn sell if 4pm palm oil futures is at 3460 or lower.

CPO Futures hourly indicator finally took profit 124 ticks and turned buy 3478 at 1230pm. It has created extra profit to cover the previous two losing trades and has accumulated profit of 190 ticks for March so far.

Palm Oil Buy If 1230pm 3473 Or Higher

Based on low 3430, CPO Futures hourly indicator will take profit and turn buy if 1230pm palm oil price is at 3473 and above which is not far away from current price 3468.

CPO Downcycle In The Making

(Source: This excerpt is from OSK Investment Bank Berhad Research report, Analyst: Alvin Tai)

Palm oil price continued to weaken with the improved production outlook in 2H this year. At the same time, exports have been weak, suggesting that the current palm oil price is excessive and will inevitably lead to demand destruction. We believe that palm oil price already hit a peak in the 2008 – 2011 upcycle and is now in a downcycle, which will last some 6 to 9 months at the very least. As there have been no fresh catalysts to spur palm oil price further, prices have to correct to a level where demand starts to kick in...

Start of the downcycle. We are convinced that palm oil price had peaked when it hit RM3,967 per tonne (3rd month futures) in February 2011 and may have started a downcycle,judging from the recent negative price action. In our sector update last month, we indicated that our average CPO price assumption of RM3,200 per tonne this year implies that the commodity’s price will weaken to RM2,700.

Market now convinced of production recovery. It appears that the market is now convinced that palm oil production will recover significantly in 2H this year. This is not surprising given the typical lag effect of dry weather on palm oil production. Our plantation consultant/agronomist has warned since last year of a potential bumper crop developing in the later part of 2011, particularly in Indonesia.

Discount to widen. Palm oil’s discount to soybean oil has been extremely narrow in the past 2 years but is now starting to widen. The spread, which now stands at USD78 per tonne, has room to widen as a typical discount ranges from USD100 – 200. Normalization of the spread to a mid-point of USD150 will bring palm oil price down to RM3,290 if soybean oil stays where it is.

Demand destruction in the making. The high palm oil price has likely caused a slowdown in demand, as affordability is reduced, particularly in the poorer developing nations. Malaysia’s shipment fell by some 20% for the first 10 days of March, indicating that prices above RM3,500 have been excessive and high enough to cause demand rationing.

High crude oil price will not help palm oil price. We do not believe the spike in crude oil price to over USD100 per barrel will help palm oil price much, if at all, as the price spread between palm oil and crude oil is still too big for the biodiesel factor to come into play to support palm oil price. Crude palm oil is now trading at an equivalent of USD155 per barrel compared to USD103 for crude oil, bearing in mind that while crude oil price stayed stagnant most of 2010, agriculture commodities had enjoyed a bull market.

A very good comment.

Palm Oil Buy If 1130am 3496 Or Higher

Based on low 3441, CPO Futures hourly indicator will take profit and turn buy if 1130am palm oil price is above 3495.

CPO Futures Buy If 6pm 3506 Or Higher

CPO Futures hourly indicator will turn buy signal if 6pm palm oil price is closed above 3505, based on low 3441.

CPO Futures Buy If 5pm 3523 Or Higher

Based on low 3441, CPO Futures hourly indicator will take profit and turn buy if 5pm palm oil price is at 3523 or higher.

SGS Palm Oil Export 355k MT

Cargo surveyor, SGS, said palm oil exports during the March 1-10 is 355k metric tons. ( vs 426k MT last month )

Target Profits 3442, 3422 and 3402

CPO Futures hourly indicator target profits get hit again at 3442 which is 160 ticks of profits since holding sell 3602.

MPOB Figures In February 2011

MPOB put February production 1.09 million tons vs 1.058 million tons in January, with stock levels at 1.48 million tons in February, up from 1.42 million tons in January. Refer CPO Data page for details.

Target Profit 3482 Done At 3470

CPO Futures hourly indicator hit another 2 target profits at 3482 and 3462. Target profit 3482 was done at 3470 at opening trade.

CPO Futures Buy If 4pm 3568 Or Higher

CPO Futures hourly indicator will remain sell signal unless 4pm palm oil price is at 3568 and above, based on low 3483.

Eye on SGS palm oil export for afternoon trading session.

Palm Oil Buy If 1230pm 3584 Or Higher

First target profit 3502 was done, next will be 3482.

CPO Futures hourly indicator will turn buy signal if 1230pm palm oil price is at 3584 and above.

Intertek Palm Oil Export 354k MT

Cargo surveyor Intertek Agri Services said palm oil exports during the March 1-10 is 354k metric tons. ( vs 437k MT last month )

Palm Oil Buy If 1130am 3627 Or Higher

Based on low 3557, CPO Futures hourly indicator will turn buy signal if 1130am palm oil price is at 3627 or higher, otherwise remain sell 3602 with target profit 3502 and lower.

CPO Futures Buy If 6pm 3644 Or Higher

CPO Futures hourly indicator will turn buy if 6pm palm oil futures is closed 3644 or higher which is being adjusted lower now.

CPO Falls On Bearish Outlooks From Fry And Mielke

[Dow Jones] BMD CPO futures have slipped on bearish price forecasts by noted vegoil analysts James Fry and Thomas Mielke at a palm oil conference that is under way in Kuala Lumpur. Palm oil prices could--in a worst-case scenario--fall to MYR2,250/ton in the second half of the year as CPO output rises in Malaysia and Indonesia amid inflation-fighting measures, Fry says. Average CPO prices will likely fall to MYR2,850/ton in October-December due to rising stocks and output, Mielke says. A Singapore-based trader tips BMD CPO futures to remain rangebound at MYR3,550-MYR3,620/ton levels in afternoon trade. The benchmark May contract is trading MYR7 lower at MYR3,577/ton.

Keyword search FRY or MIELKE to read more. (surabhi.choudhary@dowjones.com)

Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 140; MarketTalk@dowjones.com

CPO Futures Buy If 5pm 3658 Or Higher

CPO Futures hourly indicator will cut loss and turn buy if 5pm palm oil futures is at 3658 or higher.

James Fry Said Malaysia Indonesia CPO Output To Rise Sharply In 2011

KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)--Crude palm oil output in the world's largest producers, Indonesia and Malaysia, will likely rise sharply this year as more trees begin to bear palm fruits following a major palm plantation expansion a few years ago, a leading industry analyst said Wednesday.

Palm oil prices on Malaysia's derivatives exchange hit a record high of MYR4,486 a metric ton in March 2008, leading to a boom in oil palm planting. The benchmark May contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives was trading at MYR3,572/ton at midday, down MYR12 from Tuesday's close.

The growth in oil palm plantings in response to high prices is starting to be reflected in mature areas, James Fry, chairman at London-based agribusiness consultancy LMC International Ltd., told an industry conference. "With (oil palm) yields back on track, world CPO output would rise by 3 million tons," he said.

According to data compiled by LMC, mature oil palm areas in Malaysia have risen by 12%, while Indonesia's area is up 24%, since 2008.

Global vegetable oil prices have declined over the past few days, triggered by rising crude-oil prices due to geopolitical unrest in the Middle East and North Africa on the back of concerns that consumers will have to ration consumption to

cope with higher energy prices and rising inflation.

As governments raise interest rates and tighten credit to curb inflation, economic growth will slow and may drag the prices of energy and agricultural commodities, Fry said.

In a worst-case scenario, palm oil prices could fall to MYR2,250/ton in the second half of the year as CPO output rises against the backdrop of inflation-fighting measures, and crude oil could plunge to $70 a barrel, Fry said.

-By Shie-Lynn Lim, Dow Jones Newswires; +603 2026 1233; shie-lynn.lim@dowjones.

com

CPO Futures Buy If 4pm 3671 Or Higher

CPO Futures hourly indicator will remain sell 3602 unless 4pm palm oil futures is above 3670.

Eye on two more leading edible oil analysts - Dr James Fry and Mr Thomas Mielke - about palm and major oils market.

Palm Oil Buy If 1230pm 3673 Or Higher

CPO Futures hourly indicator will cut loss and turn buy if 1230pm palm oil futures is closed at 3673 or higher which is remained high.

Dorab Mistry Said Palm Oil Prices May Climb To MR4000 Per Ton Next Few Weeks

KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)--Crude palm oil prices may climb to MYR4,000 a metric ton in the next few weeks on tight palm oil inventory levels amid high energy prices, leading vegetable oils analyst Dorab Mistry said Wednesday.

"Prices may test new highs in the next eight to 10 weeks," Mistry said at an international palm oil conference. "We are facing extremely tight palm oil stocks in Malaysia at least until June."

May palm oil on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives settled at MYR3,584/ton Tuesday, down nearly 10% from MYR3,967 the benchmark contract reached Feb. 10

Palm oil stocks may improve from July onward, due in part to increased fertilizer application on oil palm trees and "the extraordinarily wet and cloudy weather we have experienced in recent months...the high production cycle will

commence in July," Mistry said.

He said Malaysia's output will likely see strong growth during the September-November period and he expects CPO production to reach 17.3 million

tons in 2011.

If realized, the output figure would represent a small rebound in production after two years of declines. Malaysia's palm oil output in 2010 reached 17 million tons, compared with 17.6 million tons in 2009 and 17.8 million tons in 2008.

London-based Mistry, who is also a director at Godrej International Ltd., said Indonesia's CPO output will increase by 1.5 million tons to reach 24 million tons in 2011.

Palm oil's discount to soyoil may widen significantly in the second half of the year, he said, as palm oil production improves at a time when soyoil prices are likely to rally to 70 cents a pound.

"Soyoil's premium over refined palm olein will reach historic highs of $200/ton as winter sets in." Refined palm olein was last offered at a $40 discount to Argentina soyoil.

March soyoil futures on the Chicago Board of Trade ended 60 points lower Tuesday at 57.97 cents/lb, off a recent high of 59.75 cents/lb and a March 2008

-By Shie-Lynn Lim, Dow Jones Newswires; +603 2026 1233;

shie-lynn.lim@dowjones.com

Dorab Mistry Said India Will Trim Vegoil Imports For 1St Time In A Decade

KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)--India may import reduced volumes of vegetable oils in the marketing year that ends Nov. 30, as adequate monsoon rains boosted its production of oilseeds, including soybeans, groundnuts and rapeseed, top vegetable oils analyst Dorab Mistry said Wednesday.

"India will produce and consume more domestic oils in the current oil year and will trim imports for the first time in a decade," Mistry said at an international palm oil conference.

In the "oil year" spanning November 2009 to October 2010, India's production of vegetable oils fell to 6.62 million tons from 6.68 million tons in 2008-09.

India's vegetable oil imports will decline by 4% from the previous year to 8.8 million tons, although palm oil imports may rise to 7 million tons from 6.7 million tons, while soyoil imports may decline to 1 million tons from 1.7 million tons in the current marketing year, Mistry said.

India sources palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia and imports soyoil from Brazil and Argentina.

-By Shie-Lynn Lim, Dow Jones Newswires; +603 2026 1233; shie-lynn.lim@dowjones.

com

Palm Oil Buy If 1130am 3677 Or Higher

CPO Futures hourly indicator will only turn buy signal if 1130am palm oil futures is at 3677 and above which is remained high.

CPO Futures Buy If 6pm 3685 Or Higher

CPO Futures hourly indicator will cut loss and turn buy if 6pm palm oil futures is closed 3685 or high.

Stop Loss Buy order can be placed at 3637 to protect from further losses.

CPO Futures Will Remain Sell 3602 At 5pm

CPO Futures hourly indicator will remain sell signal 3602 at 5pm even if palm oil futures is at high 3700 at 5pm.

Dorab Mistry James Fry Thomas Mielke

Watch out on 3 important speakers on tomorrow POC2011 conference at the link below:

http://cpofutures.blogspot.com/2011/03/palm-oil-conference-2011-day-3.html

CPO Futures Will Remain Sell 3602 At 4pm

CPO Futures hourly indicator will not be able to turn buy signal even palm oil futures is at high 3700 at 4pm. Therefore, it will remain sell 3602 at 4pm.

POC 2011 at 2pm to 4pm today, first speaker is:

1. Mr Andrew Wilson (Vice President, Corporate Relations, Conservation International Singapore) on topic: Global Best Practices for Site Selection, Ecosystem Preservation and Sustainability On Oil Palm.

The next three speakers on Lauric Oil & Biodiesel Session are:

1. Mr Harald Sauthoff (Vice President, Cognis GmBH (part of BASF)) on topic: Markets are Chaotic Systems – and Sometimes I Feel Like a Butterfly …
2. Mr James McKay (Starsupply Renewables S.A.) on topic: Biodiesel Risk Management and the Impact on Palm Oil and Feedstocks
3. Mr Chris de Lavigne (Asian Director, Frost & Sullivan) on topic: Outlook of Biofuels and Impact on Palm Oil Prices.

Palm Oil Sell 3602 At 1130am

CPO Futures hourly indicator cut loss and turned selling 3602 at 1130am. It will not turn buy signal at 1230pm even palm oil futures is closed at high 3700.

Palm Oil Sell If 1130am 3682 Or Lower

Based on high 3700, CPO Futures hourly indicator will turn sell signal if 1130am palm oil futures is at 3682 or lower.

POC 2011 at 1000am today, speaker, Mr Ling Ah Hong, Director of Ganling Sdn Bhd will talk on: Palm Oil Outlook 2011/12 - with Special Reference to Impacts of Weather Changes.

POC 2011 at 1100am to 1200pm today, speakers that focus on the Pricing Of The Edible Oils Markets based Financial Users Perspective. The four speakers are:

1. Mr Timothy J Andriesen (Managing Director, Commodities, CME Group),
2. Mr Denny Kurien (Managing Editor, Commodities, Dow Jones Newswires),
3. Mr Loh Kin Kien (CIMB Futures Sdn Bhd), and
4. Mr Wang Tao (Market Analyst (Commodities), Thomson Reuters)

Happy International Women's Day 2011

The first International Women's Day (IWD) was observed on 19 March 1911; so, now is 100-year celebration. Click HERE to know more from Wikipedia.

It is a day to honour the contribution of women , celebrate their success and remind of inequities that still exist. But not in online trading any more! :)

CPO Futures Sell If 6pm 3679 Or Lower

Based on high 3699, CPO Futures hourly indicator will turn sell if 6pm palm oil futures is closed below 3680.

CPO Futures Sell If 5pm 3675 Or Lower

Based on high 3699, CPO Futures hourly indicator will turn sell if 5pm palm oil futures is at 3675 or lower.

CPO Futures Sell If 4pm 3669 Or Lower

CPO Futures hourly indicator will turn sell if 4pm palm oil futures is at 3669 or lower, based on high 3697.

Palm Oil Sell If 1230pm 3667 Or Lower

Based on high 3697, CPO Futures hourly indicator will turn sell if 1230pm palm oil futures is at 3667 or lower, which is not far away from the current price now.

Palm Oil Conference 2011 Day 3 Programme

Watch out on three regular speakers tomorrow - Dorab Mistry, James Fry and Thomas Mielke.

POC 2011 Day 3 ( 9 March ) Morning Session Programme at 9am to 12pm four speakers are:

1. Mr Mark Borrett (LaSalle Group) on topic: Trading the CME Dollar Denominated Palm Contract (A Discussion of Arbitrage Opportunities in the New Cash Settled Contract)
2. Mr Dorab Mistry (Director, Godrej International Limited) on topic: Palm & Lauric Price Outlook 2011 with Special Reference to India.
3. Ms Emily French (Managing Director, ConsiliAgra) on topic: Commodity Price Outlooks for Corn, Wheat and Oilseeds in 2011 – Drivers, Price Influences and the Forthcoming Acreage Battle in the US Spring / Summer 2011.
4. Mr Guo Jia Hua (Dong Ling Grain & Oil Co., Ltd.) on topic: Outlook of Edible Oils Market in China

POC 2011 Day 3 ( 9 March ) Afternoon Session Programme at 145pm to 315pm three speakers are:

1. Ms Anne Frick (Senior Oilseed Analyst & Supervisory Analyst,Prudential Bache Commodities LLC) on topic: Vegetable Oils: A Futures Perspective
2. Dr James Fry (Chairman, LMC International Ltd) on topic: What can economics teach us about commodity markets?
3. Mr Thomas Mielke (Executive Director, ISTA Mielke GmBH (Oil World)) on topic: The Price Outlook of Palm & Lauric Oils and Impacts from the Global Vegetable Oil Markets- A Fundamental Approach

Source: http://www.pocmalaysia.com/

Palm Oil Conference 2011 Day 2 Programme

POC 2011 Day 2 ( 8 March ) Morning Session Programme:

Speakers : Mr Ling Ah Hong, Mr Timothy J Andriesen, Mr Denny Kurien, Mr Loh Kin Kien and Mr Wang Tao

POC 2011 Day 2 ( 8 March ) Afternoon Session Programme:

Speakers: Mr Andrew Wilson, Mr Harald Sauthoff, Mr James McKay and Mr Chris de Lavigne

Source: http://www.pocmalaysia.com/

Palm Oil Sell If 1130am 3628 Or Lower

CPO Futures hourly indicator will turn sell if 1130am palm oil futures is at 3628 or lower based on high 3665.

2011 Palm Oil Conference Today's Programme :

CPO Futures Sell If 6pm Below 3610

CPO Futures hourly indicator will remain buy 3631 unless 6pm palm oil futures is closed at 3609 or lower.

POC 2011 Effect

CPO Futures hourly indicator will cut loss and turn sell if 5pm palm oil futures is at 3602 or lower.

Palm Oil Conference starts on Monday and seems always a good news for Malaysia palm oil futures market as a producer country.

CPO Futures Sell If 4pm 3608 Or Lower

CPO Futures hourly indicator will cut loss and turn sell if 4pm palm oil futures at 3608 or lower.

Eye on next week Palm Oil Conference, POC 2011, at Shangri-La Hotel, Kuala Lumpur on 7-9 March. See the link http://www.pocmalaysia.com/

CPO Futures Buy 3631 At 1130am

CPO Futures hourly indicator cut loss 43 ticks and turned buy 3631 at 1130am.

CPO Futures hourly indicator will turn sell signal if 1230pm palm oil futures is closed at 3608 or lower.

Palm Oil Buy If 1130am 3623 Or Higher

CPO Futures hourly indicator will cut loss and turn buy if 1130am palm oil futures is at 3623 or higher. Thus, stop loss buy order at 3618 can be ignored first.

CPO Futures Buy If 6pm 3628 Or Higher

CPO Futures hourly indicator will cut loss and turn buy signal if 6pm palm oil futures is closed at 3628 or higher, similar to the earlier 5pm indicator signal.

Buy stop order can be placed at 3618 for traders who do not wish to risk the overnight position further if palm oil price is still remaining above selling price 3588 before 6pm.

CPO Futures Sell 3588 At 5pm

CPO Futures hourly indicator finally took profit and turned sell signal at 4pm at 3588 with a total of 138 points or RM3,450.00 profit per contract in a single trade.

CPO Futures hourly will cut loss and turn buy if 5pm palm oil futures is at 3628 or higher.

CPO Futures Sell If 4pm 3611 Or Lower

Based on high 3648, CPO Futures hourly indicator will turn sell if 4pm palm oil futures is at 3611 or lower which is getting closer to the current price at 3626. Therefore, it is believed that the CPO Futures hourly indicator will turn sell signal very soon before or at 6pm today.

Palm Oil Sell If 1230pm 3607 Or Lower

CPO Futures hourly indicator will turn sell if 1230pm palm oil futures at 3607 or lower, based on the high 3648.

CPO Futures hourly indicator hit another profit target 180 points at 3630 but missed the 200 points target at 3650.

Palm Oil Sell If 1130am 3591 Or Lower

CPO Futures Hourly indicator will take profit and turn sell signal at 1130am if palm oil futures at 3591 or lower at 1130am, based on high 3629.

Sell signal will be changed if the high is hit above 3629 before 1130am today.

CPO Futures Sell If 6pm 3570 Or Lower

CPO Futures hourly indicator will take profit and turn sell if 6pm palm oil futures is closed 3570 or lower, which is now getting closer to current price already and it seems that soon there will be a sell signal.

CPO Futures Sell If 5pm 3547 Or Lower

Based on high 3629, CPO Futures hourly indicator will take profit and turn sell if palm oil futures at 5pm is at 3547 or lower.

Target Profit 3610 And 3630

CPO Futures hourly indicator hit 3610 profit target of 160 points and almost reached 180 points target 3630.

CPO Futures hourly indicator will probably remain buy signal at 4pm and 5pm.

CPO Futures Sell If 4pm 3504 Or Lower

CPO Futures hourly indicator will take profit and turn sell if palm oil futures at 4pm is selling down below 3505 which the sell signal is now adjusted much higher even though it is still about 80 points below the closing price 3884 at 1230pm.

Palm Oil Sell If 1230pm 3465 Or Lower

CPO Futures hourly indicator will only turn sell signal if palm oil futures can hit 3465 or lower at 1230pm which is almost 100 ticks below the current price 3660.

POC2011 News Excerpt From Bursa

Excerpt from Bursa:

Bursa Malaysia Derivatives (BMD) will be organising the 22nd Palm and Lauric Oils Conference & Exhibition (POC) on 7 – 9 March 2011 in Shangri-La Hotel, Kuala Lumpur. Themed Weathering Challenges, Maximising Opportunities,...

The two-day conference will feature renowned speakers including Mr. Dorab Mistry, Director of Godrej International Limited; Mr. Thomas Mielke, Executive Director of ISTA Mielke GmBH (Oil World); Dr. James Fry, Chairman of LMC International Ltd; Ms. Anne Frick, Senior Oilseed Analyst & Supervisory Analyst of Prudential Bache Commodities, LLC; and Mr. Wang Tao, Market Analyst (Commodities) of Thomson Reuters, to name but a few...

Officiating the conference and presenting a ministerial address will be Yang Berhormat Tan Sri Bernard Giluk Dompok, Minister of Plantation Industries and Commodities and delivering a welcome remarks will be Yang Amat Berbahagia Tun Mohamed Dzaiddin Hj Abdullah, Chairman of Bursa Malaysia. Speaking at the opening ceremony will be Mr. Charles Carey, Vice Chairman of CME Group and Mr. Li Jun, Executive Vice President of Dalian Commodity Exchange and also attending will be Yang Berbahagia Tan Sri Datuk Dr. Yusof Basiron, Chief Executive Officer of the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) and other industry captains.

This flagship conference is one of the largest gatherings of palm oil and related oil industry players including producers, refiners, dealers and traders as well as commodity hedge fund managers and proprietary traders. Participants will have the opportunity to hear expert views on the state and future of palm oil, biofuels and related oil industry...

This year’s conference received tremendous support from Sime Darby Plantation as the event partner; Dalian Commodity Exchange as the special partner exchange; Emery Oleochemicals and LT International futures as Titanium sponsors and other corporate sponsors, partners and supporters...

CPO Futures Sell If 6pm 3451 Or Lower

CPO Futures hourly indicator will only turn sell signal if 6pm palm oil futures is closed at 3451 or lower which is still about 80 points away from the current price 3530s level.

CPO Futures Sell If 4pm 3439 Or Lower

CPO Futures hourly indicator will remain buy 3450 unless 4pm palm oil futures drop sharply to 3439 or lower which is about 80 ticks lower from the last closing price 3517 at 1230pm.

Palm Oil Sell If 1130am 3447 Or Lower

CPO Futures hourly indicator will cut loss and turn sell if 1130am palm oil futures is at 3447 or lower, since its buying level 3450 on 24 February at 5pm.